NFL Conference Championships: Patriots, Chiefs, Rams and Saints live on Sky Sports
Sky Sports NFL previews are powered by the guys at Pro Football Focus; watch the Conference Championships live on Sky Sports USA (407) from 7pm, Sunday
Monday 21 January 2019 00:13, UK
We preview this Sunday's night's NFL playoff action, with the Los Angeles Rams @ New Orleans Saints and New England Patriots @ Kansas City Chiefs in the Conference Championship finals.
We are live on Sky Sports USA (channel 407) from 7pm on Sunday for an hour's build-up to the first game of the night. Here is a look ahead to what you can expect on the evening we find out our Super Bowl LIII finalists...
NFC: Los Angeles Rams (#2) @ New Orleans Saints (#1), KO 8.05pm
Form guide
We've seen this game before this season. The Rams (13-3) visited the Saints (13-3) in Week Nine, with New Orleans coming out 45-35 winners in a thriller.
For two straight seasons, Sean McVay's Rams have been lighting up the league. Last year they led the NFL with 29.9 points per game, this season they managed 32.9. But unlike last season, they made it through their first playoff game, and looked fantastic doing it.
After an 11-1 start to the regular season, it looked as though the Rams were rattled by back-to-back losses to the Chicago Bears and Philadelphia Eagles, but they bounced back and have scored 31, 48, and 30 in their last three outings.
New Orleans were the best team in the NFC, and their first-team starters have only lost once since the opening week of the season - edged out 13-10 by the Dallas Cowboys in Week 13 - as they rested most of their players during a Week 17 loss to the Carolina Panthers.
Although the Rams have been doing it for two years straight, the Saints have have occupied the first or second spot in total offensive yardage on six occasions in the last eight years. In terms of points scored, they have not dropped out of the top 10 since 2010. Expect a shootout with both teams looking to keep up with the other.
Stat Attack
Saints quarterback Drew Brees is seven years and nine days older than Rams head coach Sean McVay. That marks the largest age gap between a QB older than an opposing head coach in a playoff game in the Super Bowl era (by more than four years). This will be only the sixth instance of a starting QB older than the opposing head coach... and the QB has won all five of the previous meetings.
Ones to watch
Last offseason, the Rams set out to make a 'super-team', and for the most part, they have lived up to the hype. No 1 overall pick in the 2016 draft Jared Goff broke out last season, and he's continued to pad the stat sheet with 4,688 yards, 32 touchdowns and a 101.1 passer rating in 2018. He's helped largely by his running game, led by All-Pro Todd Gurley and boosted by the recent acquisition of C.J. Anderson.
Gurley has now scored 40 touchdowns over the past two seasons, and racked up over 2,500 rushing yards and 1,300 receiving yards. He could be the best back in football. And since Anderson joined the Rams in Week 16 after a Gurley injury, no player has more rush yards per game(140.7), rush first downs (29), or rush TDs (4), including the playoffs. He has the second-most rushing yards in his first three games with a new team since 1970!
On defense, Saints head coach Sean Payton thinks his side will come up against the NFL's "best defensive player" when they face Aaron Donald on Sunday. He won the Defensive Player of the Year award last year and led the league with 20.5 sacks this season. Alongside him, Ndamukong Suh is capable of wrecking a game too.
In his 18th season, Drew Brees had his most efficient passer rating (115.7 - 32 touchdowns to just five interception) and completion percentage (74.4), setting the NFL single-season record for the latter. With all the unstoppable weapons around him, it is no surprise he made it look so easy.
Who are those weapons? It starts in the Saints' backfield, with Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara; the best 'thunder and lightning' duo in football. Kamara, the all-round superstar has just over 3,100 yards from scrimmage and 31 touchdowns in 31 career games. He's special. Ingram, meanwhile, thrives as a first and second-down rusher, scoring 24 TDs on the ground in the past two years.
Then there is Michael Thomas, the third-year receiver phenom who continues to improve his dominating statistics every season. His most recent year-long line? 125 catches, 1,405 yards and nine TDs. Important notes: in three career playoff games, he has a 27-387-3 line, and against the Rams earlier this season, he has 12 catches for a franchise-record 211 yards, and a score to boot.
New Orleans only boasted the 14th-ranked yardage and scoring defense, but they do have game-changers. In particular, cornerback Marshon Lattimore. Last year's Defensive Rookie of the Year may not have been in the spotlight as much as a sophomore, but he continued to make plays. Against the Eagles, he came up with two picks, including the game-winner.
AFC: New England Patriots (#2) @ Kansas City Chiefs (#1), KO 11.40pm
Form guide
"I know everyone thinks we suck and you know, can't win any games," were the words from Tom Brady after the Patriots (11-5 in the regular season) demolished the Los Angeles Chargers on their way to an eighth-straight AFC Championship game.
Perhaps in a season where they lost two of their first three games, and two of the last four, the shine of invincibility had started to wear off. But no bother; they still have the best coach-quarterback duo in NFL history in Bill Belichick and Brady. Last Sunday they again showed why, and the Pats have already managed to keep up with Kansas City once this year, in an epic Week Six battle, winning 43-40 (albeit the game was at Foxboro). The Pats have, however, lost their last three Championship games on the road.
The Chiefs (12-4) had an historic attack in 2018, averaging an outstanding 35.3 points. The Patriots came in at fourth, but still only scored 27.3 per outing, more than a touchdown a game less. Perhaps as important were the terrific performances of Kansas City's defense at home, which showed up again against the Indianapolis Colts in a 31-13 divisional round win last week.
Although they now come up against the mighty Patriots, Andy Reid's current team is the most talented during his tenure and he will fell they can get over the hump after being bounced from the postseason in four of his previous five seasons in charge.
Stat Attack
The 2018 AFC Championship will mark the third playoff matchup in NFL history between two quarterbacks to have had a season with 50+ pass TD in their career (Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes). Brady has been involved in all three of these matchups but lost each of the previous two to Peyton Manning.
Ones to watch
For New England, It is all about Tom Brady. The man is a living legend. He is 41 years old, but will his era ever end? Since Brady took over in the 2001 season, he has made the playoffs 16 times, the AFC Championship game 13 times (and the last eight in a row), the Super Bowl eight times, and has won five of them. Whether they take an early lead or need a late comeback, New England will be in this game for 60 minutes.
Patriots running back Sony Michel had a trio of touchdowns last weekend, and his 129 yards on 24 carries were a huge reason for the win. Coincidentally, the last time he had 24 carries was against Kansas City the first time around, and he turned them into 106 yards and two scores. Expect him to be involved heavily again.
Also, Julian Edelman is a playoff stud. Brady will look his way early and often, and he also has a safety blanket in running back James White, who tied the postseason single-game record with 15 catches last week. Finally, although Rob Gronkowski has been quiet all season and rumored to be on the verge of retirement due to back problems, he is still capable of turning a game on its head.
If you want to watch pure wizardry, keep an eye on what Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes is able to do with his arm. Earlier in the season, we saw him throw left-handed and deliver a no-look pass, and last week he 'curled' a pass around two defenders to find his target. A former baseball pitcher, Mahomes has the best arm in football already - and it is only his first year as a starter!
Around their sophomore star, the Chiefs have Tyreek Hill - the speedy, elusive, electric runner, receiver and returner extraordinaire - and tight end Travis Kelce, who looks like a young version of Gronkowski and has 271 catches, 3,499 yards and 22 touchdowns in the last three years.
Defensive end Chris Jones and outside linebackers Dee Ford and Justin Houston managed 15.5, 13 and nine sacks, respectively, in the regular season for Kansas City. They will need to bring the heat and get to Brady.
@PFF will provide a host of in-depth analysis throughout the season across Sky Sports platforms including our live coverage on Sunday and throughout our weekly build-up and reaction on www.skysports.com/NFL
