Will Baltimore Ravens keep Wild Card run going all the way to the Super Bowl?
Ravens host Chargers in Wild Card game - live on Sky Sports USA (channel 407), Sunday 6.05pm
Sunday 6 January 2019 16:46, UK
The last Super Bowl winner to come out of Wild Card weekend was the 2012 Baltimore Ravens.
Since their 34-31 Super Bowl XLVII triumph over the San Francisco 49ers, nine of the 10 teams to make the big dance have been No 1 seeds, along with one No 2. But, this year threatens to be different.
The Ravens are one of a number of Wild Card teams hoping to buck that trend, coming into the playoffs red hot. Of the eight teams involved this weekend, only the Houston Texans (two) have suffered multiple losses over the final six games of the season.
The Chicago Bears and Indianapolis Colts are the hottest teams, with nine wins from their last 10, while the Ravens are riding six wins from seven entering Sunday's clash with the Los Angeles Chargers - live on Sky Sports USA from 6.05pm.
What makes Baltimore unique, though, is they have been winning in a different way to any other team in the league. Running the football.
The Seattle Seahawks and their No 1 rush attack can rightly argue that they too have been pounding the rock, but the Ravens, in particular, have been running the football with unprecedented success since Week 11 - coinciding with their upturn in form.
Baltimore leads the league in rushing yards down the stretch - a staggering 229.6 per game - as well as in run play percentage (63.7) and rush attempts per game (45.1).
The reason? Lamar Jackson.
Following three-straight losses that dropped the Ravens back to 4-5 on the season, Jackson first took over the offense due to injury to Joe Flacco and has since lit a spark under the team as the starter, inspiring them to the postseason.
The 2016 Heisman Trophy winner is the very definition of a dual-threat QB, killing defences with his legs since taking the reins. Jackson currently averages the most rushing yards per game (79.4) by a starting quarterback since 1970.
He has also been the ultimate third-down runner this season. Despite starting just seven games, Jackson leads the league in carries (32) and yards (212), further showing Baltimore's commitment to this run-first scheme.
However, defenses also need to consider Jackson's growing prowess as a passer, especially late in games. His 119.9 passer rating in the fourth quarter is the highest among all quarterbacks with at least six starts this season - bettering Drew Brees (118.9). Nothing fazes this fledgling first-year pro.
Jackson hasn't done it all by himself, though. The Ravens have unearthed another gem in undrafted rookie running back Gus Edwards, who has combined with Jackson for 1,210 rush yards since Week 11.
Edwards has hit his stride, much like the team as a whole have, since Jackson's introduction, averaging 5.2 yards a carry and tallying back-to-back 100-yard games against the Cincinnati Bengals and Oakland Raiders, before adding another in Week 15 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Admittedly, the Bengals, Raiders and Bucs aren't the NFL's best. The three teams combined for a 15-33 record this season. The Ravens also beat the 7-9 Atlanta Falcons during their recent run of form, and only just edged out the 7-8-1 Cleveland Browns - relying on a Baker Mayfield interception in the dying seconds - to book their playoff berth in dramatic fashion last weekend.
So is this team sufficiently battle-tested as we enter Wild Card weekend? The answer comes in the shape of their opponents on Sunday.
The Chargers (12-4) share the AFC's best record with the Kansas City Chiefs, but are unfortunate to see tie-breakers bump them down to the No 5 seed to face the Ravens, who shut them down 22-10 only a fortnight ago.
It was Baltimore's defense - the NFL's best in total defense and No 2 in scoring - that did the damage on that occasion, restricting the Chargers to not only their fewest points on the season but also their fewest yards (198). They broke Philip Rivers too, intercepting the veteran quarterback twice.
Worrying too for the Chargers, is form and fitness concerns surrounding star running back Melvin Gordon. He is expected to play but, having missed Weeks 13 through 15 to injury, he has only carried the ball 22 times in the last two weeks and comes into this game a little beaten up.
Even if Los Angeles do match up better on offense this time around, there are concerns over their defense's ability to stop this Ravens running juggernaut.
Sky Sports' Jeff Reinebold noted such concerns on the latest Inside the Huddle podcast, saying: "The Chargers are a good football team, but they're not built to play Baltimore's style.
"It's almost a mismatch. Baltimore are so much more reliant on the run and physicality, while the Chargers want to rush the passer with those two great edge rushers in Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram.
"Last time they met, the Ravens came out in multiple tight-end sets, leaving Bosa playing inside the tight end, or even inside the offensive tackle. It just completely goes against their game plan."
The Chargers too haven't been helped by the timing of Sunday's game. The NFL's joint-best road team this season, along with the New Orleans Saints - both 7-1 on their travels - have been left with the equivalent of a 10am Los Angeles start time.
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"You need to fly from the west coast to east, play in cold weather and you're playing at 1pm in the afternoon on the eastern time zone, which is early morning back out west. That's not a fair fight," adds Reinebold.
That being said, the Chargers are certainly not to be underestimated. The Ravens will need to be at their best to beat them again and keep their Wild Card run to the Super Bowl alive for another week.
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