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Analysis

NFL playoff permutations for Week 18: Packers and Patriots to win wild card spots? Eagles to clinch No 1 seed in NFC?

The final NFL Sunday of the regular season sees the Patriots travel to the Bills, needing a win to book a playoff spot; the Eagles can clinch the NFC No 1 seed with a home win over the Giants and the Packers host the Lions as part of a 'wild card' battle - live on Sky Sports NFL from 6pm

From left to right: Trevor Lawrence, Aaron Rodgers and Mac Jones
Image: Can Trevor Lawrence lead the Jaguars to the AFC South title? Will the Packers and the Patriots claim the final two wild card places? From left to right: Trevor Lawrence, Aaron Rodgers and Mac Jones

The 2022 NFL regular season draws to a close on Sunday, with plenty to play for, playoff places on the line, and seedings still to be determined. Here we take a look at precisely what's at stake in Week 18...

Who will claim two final wild card spots?

There are two remaining playoff places to be claimed on Sunday, the final wild card berths in each conference, after the Jacksonville Jaguars wrapped up the AFC South division title with a win over the Tennessee Titans on Saturday night.

Current NFL playoff picture

AFC Seeding NFC
Kansas City Chiefs (14-3) 1 (division winners) Philadelphia Eagles (13-3)
Buffalo Bills (12-3) 2 (division winners) San Francisco 49ers (12-4)
Cincinnati Bengals (11-4) 3 (division winners) Minnesota Vikings (12-4)
Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8) 4 (division winners) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8)
Los Angeles Chargers (10-6) 5 (wild card) Dallas Cowboys (12-4)
Baltimore Ravens (10-6) 6 (wild card) New York Giants (9-6-1)
New England Patriots (8-8) 7 (wild card) Seattle Seahawks (8-8)
*confirmed playoff teams in bold
In the hunt: In the hunt:
Miami Dolphins (8-8) Detroit Lions (8-8)
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8) Green Bay Packers (8-8)

At the moment, the New England Patriots (8-8) hold their fate in their own hands in the AFC. Win at the Buffalo Bills (12-3) on Sunday - live on Sky Sports NFL, 6pm - and they're in, regardless of results elsewhere.

New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones
Image: Can Mac Jones lead the New England Patriots to victory on Sunday to see them clinch the final wild card place in the AFC?

The Miami Dolphins (8-8) will profit from a Patriots loss or tie, so long as they beat the New York Jets (7-9) at home, while if they were also to slip up then the Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8) are the next cab off the rank and would sneak into the postseason with a home win over the Cleveland Browns (7-9).

There is a way the Patriots can still qualify for the postseason in defeat, so long as the Dolphins and Steelers also lose. A tie will also be good enough, so long as neither team betters their result.

NFL Week 18 games live on Sky Sports

NFL Sunday New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills Sunday, 6pm, Sky Sports NFL & Main Event
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles Sunday, 9.25pm, Sky Sports NFL & Main Event
NFL RedZone Week 18 Sunday, 6pm, Sky Sports Mix
Sunday Night Football Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers Monday, 1.20am, Sky Sports NFL & Main Event

As for the final NFC wild card spot, the Seattle Seahawks (8-8) are currently in possession of the seventh and final seed, but it doesn't see them hold all the cards heading into Sunday.

Win versus the Los Angeles Rams (5-11) and they would still be edged out of the playoff picture by the Green Bay Packers (8-8) were they to be victorious on Sunday Night Football against the Detroit Lions (8-8) - live on Sky Sports NFL, 1.20am, Monday.

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A look at the Green Bay Packers' four-game winning streak, which set up a potential winner-takes-all game against the Detroit Lions

Were the Lions to win, then the Seahawks would progress... UNLESS they lose to the Rams, in which case it would be Detroit who'd clinch a postseason place with victory. The Lions would also edge out the Packers in the event of a tie and a Seahawks loss.

Will the Eagles claim the No 1 seed in the NFC?

The Kansas City Chiefs (14-3) confirmed the No 1 seed in the AFC with a win on Saturday night over the Las Vegas Raiders, and the Philadelphia Eagles (13-3) need to follow suit and win on Sunday to ensure it's they from the NFC who gain the benefit of an extra week's rest with a first-round bye in the playoffs.

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The Eagles would also earn home-field advantage throughout the postseason with a victory at home over the New York Giants (9-6-1) - live on Sky Sports NFL, 9.25pm. The Chiefs, however, aren't assured of that luxury, due to the cancelled Week 17 game between the Bills and Cincinnati Bengals following the cardiac arrest suffered by Damar Hamlin on the field.

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The NFL confirmed on Friday three scenarios in which an AFC Championship game between Kansas City and either the Bills or Bengals would be played at a neutral site.

AFC Championship Game neutral site scenarios

  • 1) If Buffalo and Kansas City both win or tie this weekend, a Bills-Chiefs AFC title game would be at a neutral site.
  • 2) If Buffalo and Kansas City both lose and Baltimore wins or ties, a Bills-Chiefs AFC title game would be at a neutral site.
  • 3) If Buffalo and Kansas City both lose and Cincinnati wins, Bills or Bengals against Kansas City in the AFC title game would be at a neutral site.

Back in the NFC, should the Eagles slip up, the San Francisco 49ers (12-4) and their seventh-round rookie quarterback sensation, Brock Purdy, are poised to take advantage and steal the No 1 seed with a home win over the lowly Arizona Cardinals (4-12).

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) celebrates with teammates after running for a touchdown against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the first half of an NFL football game in Santa Clara, Calif., Sunday, Dec. 11, 2022. (AP Photo/Jed Jacobsohn)
Image: Rookie seventh-round quarterback Brock Purdy could still lead the San Francisco 49ers to the No 1 seed in the NFC

The Dallas Cowboys (12-4), who would see themselves pinch the NFC East division from the Eagles with a win at the Washington Commanders (7-8-1) on Sunday plus a Philadelphia defeat, could also catapult themselves into the No 1 spot if the 49ers were also to lose.

What else is there to play for in Week 18?

Still a fair bit. Specifically, a lot of jockeying for seeding in each conference.

In the AFC, the Bills (12-3) and Bengals (11-4) could yet switch places as the No 2 and 3 seeds. Cincinnati own the head-to-head tiebreaker over Buffalo, so a win at home to the Ravens (10-6) and a Bills loss versus the Patriots (8-8) would see them sneak a spot up the postseason standings.

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The Buffalo Bills practiced on Thursday for the first time since team-mate Damar Hamlin suffered a cardiac arrest on the field during a game against the Cincinnati Bengals

Other than the aforementioned battle for the final wild card berth in the conference, the only other seeding as yet undecided comes down to which of the Ravens and the Chargers (10-6) land the No 5 spot and would therefore travel to Jacksonville on Super Wild Card Weekend.

At the moment that figures to be the Chargers, unless the Ravens were to better the result of their road game against the Denver Broncos (4-12) on Sunday.

Dak Prescott and Tony Pollard celebrate during the Cowboys' big win over the Colts
Image: The Dallas Cowboys could yet win the NFC East division and possibly even claim the No 1 seed in the conference

In the NFC, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8) are locked in as the No 4 seed and will most likely host the Cowboys (12-4) in the first round of the playoffs, unless there's any Eagles (13-3) collapse on Sunday to see them steal the NFC East, or possibly even the No 1 seed, with a win over Washington (7-8-1).

The 49ers (12-4) are first in line for that No 1 spot should there be any Philadelphia fumble, but they could themselves stumble back to the No 3 seed should they lose to the Cardinals (4-12) and the Minnesota Vikings (12-4) capitalise and jump up to No 2 by bettering their result on their road at the Chicago Bears (3-13).

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The Vikings can't, however, claim the No 1 seed, even if they were to win and all of the Eagles, 49ers and Cowboys were to lose. In that scenario, though they'd match Philadelphia on win-loss record, the Eagles would hang on to top spot due to having the head-to-head tiebreaker between the two teams.

The Giants (9-6-1) are another team locked in, at No 6, regardless of their result at Philadelphia on Sunday, while the Seahawks (8-8), Packers (8-8) and Lions (8-8) are left slugging it out for that final wild card place.

What does the unplayed Bengals-Bills game mean for the playoffs?

The Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals game that was halted Monday when Buffalo safety Damar Hamlin experienced a cardiac arrest on the field will not be resumed or replayed, the NFL announced on Thursday night.

NFL owners then approved a resolution to the AFC playoff picture in a special meeting on Friday, which will see the AFC Championship game played at a neutral site if any of three possibilities occur:

1) If Buffalo (12-3) and Kansas City (13-3) both win or draw this weekend, a Bills vs Chiefs Championship Game would be held at a neutral site.

2) If the Bills and Chiefs both lose this weekend and the Baltimore Ravens (10-6) win or draw, a Buffalo vs Kansas City Championship Game would be played at a neutral site.

3) If the Bills and Chiefs both lose and the Bengals win, Buffalo vs Kansas City or Cincinnati vs Kansas City AFC title game would be held at a neutral site.

In addition, if the Ravens (10-6) were to defeat the Bengals (11-4) on Sunday, giving Baltimore a season sweep of Cincinnati, the teams would end with the same number of wins, but the Bengals would win the division due to having fewer losses.

Should those teams wind up facing off in a wild card game, the NFL have decided that a coin toss will take place to determine the designated home team for that game, despite Cincinnati being the higher seed. This is due to the fact that Baltimore could possibly have won the division if the Bengals had gone on to also lose the Week 17 game against Buffalo.

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