Sam Darnold's big moment, Matthew Stafford magic, Jarrett Stidham's fairytale: Why the NFL's final four will and won't win the Super Bowl
Watch the Denver Broncos face the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game and the Los Angeles Rams against the Seattle Seahawks in the NFC Championship Game, live on Sky Sports NFL from 7pm on Sunday January 25.
Friday 23 January 2026 12:31, UK
The NFL is down to its final four teams in the race to Super Bowl LX - but who will earn their shot at the Lombardi Trophy in Santa Clara, California?
The No 1-seeded Denver Broncos, led by backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham, host Mike Vrabel's New England Patriots at Mile High in the AFC Championship Game, before the Seattle Seahawks and NFC West rival Los Angeles Rams face off for the third time this season in the NFC title showdown.
We explore the reasons why each of the final four will or won't win football's ultimate prize...
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Denver Broncos - vs Patriots - 8pm, Sunday January 25
Why they can: Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph runs one of most creative, read-muddying units in football, using a menu of shape-shifting pressure packages to test a quarterback's eyes, anticipation and field diagnosis. His rampant defense led the NFL with 68 sacks during the regular season - since which they have added three more in the playoffs - while also finishing second in pressure rate, fifth in blitz rate, second in total yards allowed and third in points allowed.
Nik Bonitto is their chief closer up front with a team-high 14 sacks and the chief beneficiary of a yo-yoing pass rush that keeps offensive lines guessing as to where pressure might be coming. Reigning Defensive Player of the Year Pat Surtain II meanwhile leads a secondary that leans on man coverage at one of the highest rates in the league, Joseph is comfortable putting his defensive backs on islands against pass-catchers within a defense that has largely done a good job of limiting chunk plays.
It is a defense that thrives in the red zone, armed with a relentless pass rush capable of hurting you from all directions.
Why they can't: Jarrett Stidham arrives as the unlikely biggest story of Conference Championship weekend, as the backup quarterback one win from a fairytale Super Bowl having not attempted a pass in the NFL since 2023.
Stidham will start just the fifth game of his seven-year NFL career on Sunday after starting quarterback Bo Nix broke his ankle in the final moments of Denver's Divisional Round victory over the Buffalo Bills.
Sean Payton has championed Stidham's ability, warned any doubters that his next man up will be ready, and seemingly embraced the challenge of rallying against the odds. Stidham is in his third season with Denver and his third under Payton, so there are no qualms over his knowledge of a playbook that guided Nix and the Broncos to the No 1 seed. But while memories of Nick Foles' heroics linger, only those inside the building at Mile High really know what to expect come Sunday.
New England Patriots - @ Broncos - 8pm, Sunday January 25
Why they can: For starters, they have an MVP contender playing at the most important position in the sport in quarterback Drake Maye, who in his second year finished the regular season 354 of 492 passing for a league-high completion percentage of 72, while posting 4,394 yards (fourth-most) and 31 touchdowns (third-most) to just eight interceptions with a league-best passer rating of 113.5.
Among the reasons he joined Matthew Stafford in lead MVP candidacy was for his prowess attacking downfield as one of the most aggressive passers in football; Maye topped all quarterbacks in yards per attempt (8.9) and was third in air yards per attempt (9.1) within an offense that ranked No 1 in explosive play rate (8.1 - explosive plays include passes of 20-plus yards or rushes of 10-plus yards).
The Broncos have given up an explosive play rate of 14.2 per cent in the six games they have conceded 25-plus points this season, while surrendering a rate of just 7.2 per cent in each of their other 12 games, per NFL stats. Maye at his best has been deadly in his sophomore spike, attacking with poise from the pocket and creating off-platform form out of structure.
Why they can't: Ball security resurfaced as an issue during New England's Divisional Round win over the Houston Texans as Maye lost two of four fumbles while throwing an interception. He has now lost three of six fumbles in the playoffs and is guilty of a league-high 14 fumbles through 19 games, six of which the 2024 third overall pick has lost.
His 47 sacks ranked third most among quarterbacks during the regular season, first-round left tackle has been Will Campbell slow to settle since returning from injury having allowed 10 pressures and four sacks in the last two games, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Maye has to protect the ball better, and the Patriots need to do a better job of protecting him.
Los Angeles Rams - @ Seahawks - 11.30pm, Sunday January 25
Why they can: Why? Matthew Stafford's pass to Davante Adams in overtime of the Divisional Round victory against the Chicago Bears. That's why. The Rams offense had been borderline horrible for four quarters of football, shell-shocked by Caleb Williams' last-gasp miracle touchdown and with Stafford enduring one of those hobbling days in which you were waiting for a game-breaking turnover at times.
Instead, the decisive interception came from Williams in overtime. Three plays later Stafford unleashed a stunning cross-field, far hash-to-sideline missile, where only the hands of a dive-and-slide Davante Adams could cradle the ball.
It was the unsung throw of the game, one only a handful of quarterbacks in the league could make, and a flash of the MVP-calibre magic the Rams quarterback is capable of conjuring in any given moment. He had been off all game; how dare he make that pass. Stafford is two wins from the Super Bowl in the best year of his career having led the league with 4,707 passing yards and 46 touchdowns to eight interceptions while averaging 276.9 yards per game.
Why they can't: The win over the Bears did a pretty nice job of encapsulating the Rams experience, at the end of which head coach Sean McVay berated his own play-calling and lack of 'feel' for the flow of a game that nearly got away from him.
As the snow dusted the Soldier Field turf, as fans watched their own breath fill the ice-cold air, you wondered why McVay and the Rams had strayed from the running game in tough-to-throw conditions, even with the arm of Stafford. The Rams recorded just 11 carries in eight drives - six ending in punts - across the first three quarters of the game, four of which arrived in their first quarter 14-play touchdown drive. In the meantime Stafford had attempted 34 passes, only 14 of which he completed.
It wasn't until the fourth quarter when McVay returned to the run, Kyren Williams carrying it seven times on a 14-play drive ending in his five-yard rushing touchdown. Be it their multiple tight end packages, Williams and the running game or as gifted a receiver tandem as any quarterback could hope for in Puka Nacua and Adams, the Rams boast one of the most versatile offenses in football. But which game will certified genius McVay call? And which Stafford will arrive?
Seattle Seahawks - vs Rams - 11.30pm, Sunday January 25
Why they can: Behind Mike Macdonald and Aden Durde, the Seattle Seahawks carry one of football's most complete and to-be-feared defenses on the Super Bowl quest. It is a slick cocktail of skillset, scheme, effort and emotion, the kind of which seems to summon an extra ounce of juice when the stakes have been highest this season.
They nestle among the league's most successful pressure defenses while blitzing at one of the lowest rates in the league - usually a good sign of a solid unit - while ranking first in EPA/play, first in third-down conversion rate and first in points allowed.
Leonard Williams, Uchenna Nwosu, Byron Murphy and DeMarcus Lawrence spearhead their front, while do-it-all rookie 'Big Nickel' Nick Emmanwori has erupted within a Devon Witherspoon-inspired secondary that has bamboozled offenses with its coverage disguise and shifting parts. They are full throttle defense epitomised. They hit harder, run faster, think quicker and suffocate into submission.
Why they can't: Sam Darnold only completed 12 of 17 passes for 124 yards and a touchdown pass to receiving yards champion Jaxon Smith-Njigba during Seattle's 41-6 Divisional Round rout of the San Francisco 49ers. Few could blame him, for he could afford to lean on Kenneth Walker's three rushing scores and a defense that forced three turnovers. Darnold has proven his staggering career-resurrection with the Minnesota Vikings was no fluke by helping Seattle secure the No 1 seed in a 14-win campaign, but football is unlikely to allow him a Lombardi Trophy without first daring him, even if just in a single moment, to strap the Seahawks to his back and win a decisive moment through the air.
Darnold threw 14 interceptions and lost six fumbles during the regular season, while struggling against what little pressure he did face and finishing the season with a quarterback rating of just 56.0. The big picture rightly points to an outstanding season, but it is hard to escape the memories of his playoff collapse this time last year.
Watch the Denver Broncos face the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game and the Los Angeles Rams against the Seattle Seahawks in the NFC Championship Game, live on Sky Sports NFL from 7.30pm on Sunday January 25.
