Shanghai Masters: Tipster Tim Clement offers up his in-depth preview and predictions
Tuesday 7 October 2014 11:09, UK
Novak Djokovic will look to extend his dominance of the Chinese hard-courts when the ATP’s top names descend on Shanghai this week.
The Serb is justifiably the clear favourite with Sky Bet at 5/4, having romped through a supposedly competitive Beijing Open field without dropping a single set, beating Tomas Berdych 6-0 6-2 in the final.
That victory extended his winning run in China to 25 matches, having also won the last two editions of the penultimate Masters event of the season.
It looks an ominous task in stopping the world No 1 in Shanghai but the top 10 are on hand to try and do so, with his great rival Rafael Nadal expected to provide the main competition.
The Spaniard was back in action in Beijing following a left-wrist injury which ruled him out of the US Open Series and, while a winning return was beyond him last week, the layoff could actually make him a bigger threat this time round, something we’ll explore later.
Roger Federer missed Beijing, making this his first ATP tournament since the US Open Series, while Andy Murray continues his quest for a place in the World Tour Finals after being denied by Djokovic in the quarter-finals in the Chinese capital.
That cause is not helped by the draw scheduling them to meet at the same stage again here but such are the consequences of the British No 1's disappointing 2014 campaign.
Kei Nishikori must also be considered a contender after following up his US Open final run by claiming the Tokyo Open title, while US Open champion Marin Cilic and the consistent Milos Raonic will also be fancied for deep runs.
The draw
If Nadal could have picked the draw out himself he would have felt greedy selecting this one. His most likely route to the semi-finals reads; Feliciano Lopez (leads head-to-head 9-2 with only losses on carpet and grass), John Isner (leads H2H 4-0), Milos Raonic (leads H2H 5-0).
The highest ranked potential semi-final opponents are no more daunting, with Stanislas Wawrinka’s victory at the Australian Open, when Nadal was hampered by a back problem, a first in 13 meetings, while Berdych has lost their last 16 clashes. The top quarter of the draw contains two-time winners Murray (2010 & ’11) and Djokovic (’12 & ’13), while Roger Federer heads the second quarter, with new world No 5 Kei Nishikori his main competition.
The court
Hard-court is our surface in Shanghai. More specifically it is Decocolor, rated medium-fast by the ITF. While it is an outdoor event there is a rather aesthetically pleasing roof on hand for rain days, which when in use aids the more aggressive players such as Federer. Djokovic commented last year that "this is one of the fastest courts on the tour", while Nadal insisted "the court is fast, faster than the previous years".
Last year
As a certain tennis tipster predicted, Djokovic retained his title with a 6-1 3-6 7-6 (3) victory over Juan Martin Del Potro. The Serb had to weather a storm of aces and winners once Del Potro got going but typically managed to produce his best tennis in the big moments. Nadal had struggled to maintain his levels from the US Open swing and won just six games in being swept aside by Del Potro in the semis, while Jo-Wilfried Tsonga recorded more games but the same amount of sets in his loss to Djokovic.
The contenders (and Sky Bet odds)
Novak Djokovic – 5/4
The world No 1 put his post Wimbledon/marriage lull well and truly behind him with a self-proclaimed “perfect” display in Beijing, ensuring he heads to Shanghai full of confidence. However, he could have to overcome an unprecedented task in beating Murray, Federer and Nadal in the same event. It’s incredibly difficult to make a case against the Serb but there’s arguably only one man who can halt his charge to ending the year at the top of the rankings.
Rafael Nadal – 5/1
The Spaniard returned to action in Beijing with a standard thumping of Richard Gasquet, some usual complaining, with Head balls the recipients, and another early exit. His defeat to Martin Klizan in Beijing represented a third successive event where Nadal has failed to make the quarter-finals but it would be a huge surprise if that becomes four. With match practice under his belt and a dream draw, Nadal is poised to hit back at Djokovic in the battle for top status in the game. Interestingly, it is predominantly the lower-ranked player who triumphs in their rivalry, with the world No 1 at time of competing losing 13 of their last 19 meetings.
Roger Federer – 13/2
The Swiss star makes his return to the ATP Tour following his semi-final loss to Marin Cilic at the US Open but should be full of confidence again; having helped his country to a David Cup victory over Italy. The big difference for the Federer of 2014 compared to his worrying 2013 is his ability to go deep in almost every tournament, reaching 10 semis, five finals and winning three titles. Federer proved he can win the big events again when he triumphed in Cincinnati but beating Djokovic and Nadal, who are seeded in his path, is an entirely different proposition to Raonic and Ferrer, who he saw off in the States. If the top two fall, the 33-year-old has the best chance of taking the title but it looks beyond him now to be the man to take them both out.
Andy Murray – 11/1
The British No 1 may have ended his title drought in Shenzhen but looks no closer to competing with the very top players again. He was somewhat fortunate to prevail against Tommy Robredo, saving five match points in that final, and was well beaten by Djokovic in Beijing. Wins over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Marin Cilic have mildly improved his most worrying stat, from not beating a top 10 player since Wimbledon 2013 to not beating a top eight player since Wimbledon 2013. Murray has been handed the toughest possible draw and it would go down as the season’s most impressive triumph if he were to see off David Ferrer, Djokovic, Federer and Nadal. If top seeds tumble he has a chance, if not he needs a miracle.
Best of the rest
Stanislas Wawrinka (14/1) and Marin Cilic (16/1) are considered next as reigning Grand Slam champions but their form since those wins worries. The former has been erratic at best since the Australian Open, claiming a maiden Masters title at Monte Carlo and losing to a string of lower-ranked players otherwise, most recently world No 103 Tatsuma Ito in his opening match in Tokyo. The latter suffered a comprehensive defeat to Murray in Beijing last week and it will be interesting to see how he reacts, with history suggesting it will be tough to rediscover the levels displayed at Flushing Meadows anytime soon. Milos Raonic (18/1) has been the model of consistency, reaching 11 quarter-finals this season, but a solitary title tells the tale of a man who has come up short against top players time and time again. Berdych (20/1) has endured a well below-par year and will surely be psychologically scarred after being demolishing by Djokovic on Sunday, while Grigor Dimitrov (25/1) has failed to build on his semi-final run at Wimbledon. Kei Nishikori offers far more interest at the same price, having proved he has the hunger to improve on his US Open final loss, beating Raonic on in the Tokyo Open final on Sunday. Ferrer continues to slip down the rankings and is all but dismissed at 50/1 with Murray in his section and Djokovic in their quarter, while the likes of John Isner and Ernests Gulbis (both 50/1) would have to produce the best tennis of their careers to triumph.
Predictions
I find it very difficult to see past yet another Djokovic-Nadal final, with the former boasting incredibly hard to oppose and the latter enjoying a favourable draw. The form and the odds suggest that Djokovic should be champion but I’m going to side with Nadal. That incredible stat about the lower-ranked player winning 13 of their 19 meetings shows just how much of an advantage it is of being the hunter as opposed to the hunted. The world no. 3 improved dramatically as a hard-court player last year, with his injury problems seemingly flicking a switch in terms of his need to be more aggressive and use his weapons wiser.
Best bets:
Rafael Nadal to win the Shanghai Masters – 5/1
