Barry Cowan says Novak Djokovic can pick up his third Grand Slam of the year in New York.
Serbian can be king of the hill at Flushing Meadows
If Hurricane Irene does no more than interrupt qualifying and upset the rhythm of the players ahead of the US Open then New York can consider itself very luck indeed.
While organisers plan for the worst, players have to accept that their preparations for the tournament are in the lap of the gods. That is more of a problem for some than others.
Many like a routine going into a Grand Slam - I'd include Rafael Nadal in that group - whereas Novak Djokovic has probably hit enough balls this year! The Serbian's decision to stay in New Jersey (where he has an apartment) might well be the best way forward!
Strain
Regardless of his injury-enforced retirement in the Cincinnati Masters final, Djokovic is still my favourite to win the title in Flushing Meadows.
Unless he is holding something back, his shoulder problem looked like an injury that merely required two or three days of rest. If he needs a Wednesday start, I'm sure the organisers will grant him one!
Djokovic appeared to feel the strain emotionally more than physically in Cincinnati. Becoming the first World No 1 for 18 years to win the first tournament he's entered as the best ranked in the world took a lot out of him.
Moreover, it's always notoriously difficult to play Montreal and Cincinnati because of the heat and humidity and after such an incredible winning streak it's no surprise that Djokovic was running on empty.
In that position you are more vulnerable to picking up niggles along the way and in the end he took the sensible option and conceded to Andy Murray.
Improvement
The Scot didn't play his best tennis last week; things - including Djokovic's injury - slotted into place for him but his seventh Masters victory hasn't convinced me that he is ready to make the next step.
The most encouraging thing for him ahead of New York is that two of his chief challengers - Nadal and Roger Federer - are looking slightly vulnerable.
By his own admission, Murray still has plenty of room for improvement in his game, starting with his second serve.
I've always felt that part of the game comes down to your state of mind. He certainly has the ability to be a lot more aggressive on it - and he can be - but for some reason Murray seems reluctant to really hit out on it.
Technically, the racquet speed of the second serve should be the same as the first but when Murray gets a little bit tight he de-accelerates on it, which not only means the speed is down but also makes him vulnerable to double-faulting.
The encouraging thing at Wimbledon was that his second serve was a lot better and he needs to replicate that quickly because he could face Robin Haase in the second round.
The Dutchman, ranked 42nd in the world right now, has the game to worry Murray and is exactly the type of player who believes he can.
He put in a great performance against Nadal at last year's Wimbledon where he led by two sets to one and generally has the appetite for the big occasion, so Murray should be on his guard.
Rhythm
As for Nadal, he arrives at New York on the back of a poor showing in Cincinnati. He only won his match against Fernando Verdasco because Verdasco played even worse and then Nadal looked ineffective against Mardy Fish.
He looked like the Nadal of four years ago - a player struggling to find his rhythm on the faster, harder courts who offers a glimmer of hope to his opponents.
That Nadal is capable of losing to someone like Ivan Ljubicic in the third round, but it all depends on how he starts.
If he begins slowly, Nadal might win a few matches but eventually his form will catch up with him. That's my chief worry.
Back in 2007 he beat Australian wildcard Alun Jones in four sets but was awful. He made it through to the fourth round but then lost in four to David Ferrer. I hope that he clicks into gear quicker this time.
Worry
Federer also started poorly in Cincinnati last week; he did well to recover against Tomas Berdych after losing the first set so convincingly but in the second set tie-break I was sitting there thinking 'he's going to miss the forehand' and he did.
We are starting to see this on a regular basis and if you take Federer's year as a whole, it is increasingly becoming a worry.
He appears to be half-a-step slow around the court because his confidence is definitely down and as a result many more players believe they can beat him.
That was the case at Wimbledon, where Jo-Wilfried Tsonga came back from two sets down to win. Four years ago if you were down a set and break to Federer the match would be over. That's no longer the case.
But you still can't write him off. There is enough history to suggest that great players like him can dig deep and come through; Pete Sampras nine years ago, for example.
Former winner Juan Martin del Potro is the only person outside of the top four that I feel is capable of securing the title but the truth is he's really struggled recently; I wouldn't rule him out because he is a momentum player - when he gets the ball rolling he can really rip through - but it has been a disappointing three weeks for him.
I don't see Mardy Fish putting in a concerted bid either even though he's had a phenomenal year.
What he's achieved since the disappointment of the Davis Cup is testament to how far he has come mentally as a top player. But he's still a distance behind the world's best four. It would take an amazing set of circumstances for him to win here.
Expectation
On a different note, it's great that three British women have qualified automatically for the main draw.
It's the first time that has happened for 19 years and hopefully Laura Robson can join them too.
Heather Watson has drawn third seed Maria Sharapova, which will be a great experience for her; she will relish the challenge even though it would appear to be mission impossible.
I didn't expect Sharapova to win at Wimbledon and I feel even less inclined to back her over the next fortnight because if you have got yips on your second serve, New York will catch you out.
The Russian may still be good enough to reach the final but Serena Williams is title favourite by a distance in my view.
Fitness concerns continue to dog Victoria Azarenka, while there is a heavy weight of expectation on Li Na and Sabine Lisicki, the darling of Wimbledon. Meanwhile Caroline Wozniacki looks as far away from winning her first major as ever.
Of the other Brits, Anne Keothavong might well struggle to get past Chanelle Scheepers but Elena Baltacha could set up a shot at Svetlana Kuznetsova if she can overcome Jamie Hampton.
The form of the former US Open champion has been up-and-down of late and she could well be vulnerable if Baltacha is at her best.
