George Groves will win the fight he can't afford to lose, says Jim Watt

This is a really good fight for George Groves’ comeback.

It’s a good match-up and, although it’s a fight that he has got to win, there is no reason he can’t get his show back on the road.

Groves still has his confidence and still believes he is genuinely world class.

Groves has said himself he is quite happy about the more low-key build-up this time around. The two Carl Froch fights, particularly the second one, you couldn’t go anywhere without people asking you about it. Everywhere I was going people were saying ‘what do you think about the fight?'. 

There was a lot for Groves to do in the build-up and that’s all stuff you can do without when you are training for an important fight. That’s why I think it’s good news this is a little bit lower-key. He can concentrate on the fight itself and he doesn’t have to go beating the drum.

Don’t forget, though, that it’s a European title fight and his new promoters Sauerland have managed to get a world eliminator status on it, so they have done a good job there. A little eight-rounder down on the bill somewhere wasn’t ever on the menu - it wouldn’t have done Groves any good. They are doing the right thing bringing him back at a decent level and still talking about world title fights.

Realistic

I think Groves is pretty realistic, he is naturally confident, and the fact he lost to Carl Froch, one of the best super-middleweights in the world, means I don’t expect any lasting effects. Listening to him speaking, he still has his confidence and still believes he is genuinely world class. You have to remember he has been hurt in previous fights and come back from them.

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Paul Smith hurt him at the end of the first round in their fight and Groves came back and stopped Paul in the next round. Kenny Anderson had him in all sorts of trouble and he turned that fight around in his favour. You are not dealing with a fighter who has been hurt for the first time, he has been hurt before, he knows at super-middleweight everybody punches hard, you are going to get hurt. It’s just a case of dealing with it because he is going back against an opponent who isn’t anywhere near the league that Carl Froch is.

Christopher Rebrasse is a text-book-type boxer, he is a good, tall, stand-up boxer, but he doesn’t spring surprises or do anything clever. He is pretty straightforward and pretty careful, he picks his punches but he is not a pressure fighter. I haven’t seen anything from him that should trouble Groves too much.

I think Groves can score a stoppage in the last third of the fight, but the thing with Groves is you never quite know what to expect. He could come out blasting like he did in the first Froch fight, if that’s the case I don’t know how Rebrasse would cope. Or in the James DeGale fight and the second Froch fight he was on the back foot and throwing punches on the move.

I don’t know what his plans are here but I imagine with a new promoter and new beginning he will want to look good. He will want to be exciting, whether he’ll do that from the first bell I don’t know but at some point he’s going to have to produce the goods.

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If he does win then there are a lot of good fighters still around - people like Mikkel Kessler. There’s still big matches for Groves; even though he has been stopped twice I don’t think his reputation has been badly dented so there are still plenty of big fights he could get involved in.

Paul Smith is facing Arthur Abraham next week and that would be a huge domestic fight if Smith was able to get a result there. Or he could even be in line to take on Abraham if he wins. There are loads of opportunities because it’s a terrific division.

But they would have a hell of a time bringing him back if he loses this fight. Rebrasse hasn’t done anything to raise eyebrows and say he is a real threat, so if Groves doesn’t win here it would pretty much be a disaster - but I don’t see that happening!

Watch Groves v Rebrasse live on Saturday night, Sky Sports 2 HD, from 8pm