Jim Watt says that the talented but flawed Dean Francis faces an uphill battle against Tony Oakey.
With Tony Oakey putting his British light-heavyweight belt and Dean Francis putting his Commonwealth title up, this should be a great fight.
The big question is whether Dean Francis is physically up for this clash. He has dislocated his right shoulder three times in the ring, and that has definitely affected him both physically and mentally.
Oakey is hard as nails and is always in great shape. He is not the biggest puncher so when he fights a decent class he makes sure he is fit so he can go the distance. He has been on the floor a couple of times, but you don't expect to see him knocked out.
You have to reckon that Francis has to go the twelve rounds to beat him, he is going to have to keep Oakey under control and doing that with one hand -- well it is almost impossible.
Talent wise, if both fighters were firing on all cylinders, you would make Francis the favourite to win it -- even at the age of 34. But he only really has a left hand to work with -- maybe using the right hand very occasionally. You have to ask if he can keep Oakey under control, it is going to be a huge ask for him.
Unfulfilled Potential
If there had been nothing wrong with Francis's shoulder he probably would of had a nice world class career behind him, would have made a few quid and he would have retired by now.
The reason why he is probably still boxing at his age is because so much time was wasted due to his shoulder injuries. But I don't think he should be putting up with anymore upsets of the shoulder. If it goes again, well I don't see him picking up the enthusiasm again. This is a huge fight for both of them, but especially for Francis. If he loses or has a recurrence of the shoulder injury, well I think we will see the end of his career.
Oakey has shown some great form lately and has overcome some upsets in the past. He has wasted a bit of time too, but he is firing on all cylinders now.
He has had some decent wins recently and will be really up for this. Oakey is going to be hard to beat and is a tough one for Francis, but as I said talent wise, Francis has a lot more.
He is the better puncher and if he was at full strength, I think he would be able to see off Oakley.
Changing Styles
The shoulder problems that Francis has suffered means that he has had to adapt to a different style built around the fact that he does not have confidence in his right shoulder.
Henry Cooper was left-handed and led with his left, so he did most of his work with his strong hand. I was a southpaw but was right-handed and did most of my work with my right hand.
There are a lot of fighters in the game today who lead with their good hand like Oscar De La Hoya Marco Antonio Barrera.
Now if Francis's problem happened to those guys it would not be massive, because their good hand would still be working. But Francis is actually right-handed so it is his good hand that is suffering. So Francis has had to build up his left hand and has developed an impressive left hook that is powerful enough to knock people out.
His right hand is used more for defence these days and for setting up his left. He has adapted a style to suit but it is still a problem when you come across a tough guy like Oakey who is always on the attack.
This is not going to be a tactical contest; it is going to be all out war from the start. He is going to need two hands for this slog of a fight.
