Jim Watt delievers his big-fight verdict - and expects Amir Khan to snatch Andreas Kotelnik's WBA title.
Kotelnik's tough, but Amir has the tools, says Jim
First and foremost if Amir Khan is ready for a world title - and there are still one or two questions to be answered - then Andreas Kotelnik is the perfect opponent for him.
Of all the other reigning champions at light-welterweight, Juan Urango (IBF) and Timothy Bradley (WBO), the Ukrainian is certainly the one he has the best chance of beating.
But Khan cannot afford to be complacent. He might be the favourite, but Kotelnik is a good, solid 12-round fighter and that is one of the areas we are still not sure about with Amir.
For a start, he is moving up to a new division for the first time and although there is no doubt he has the frame to do it, can easily cause problems. Ricky Hatton was a big light-welterweight but look at the trouble he had every time he moved up to welterweight.
And Amir has spent most of his career beating up blown-up super-featherweights and even the win over Marco Antonio Barrera was a case of that - although Barrera was of course a little bit special.
You just don't know how a fighter is going to cope at a new weight and that alone means this is not a walk in the park.
I also think this is going to be a long fight, possibly going all the way, and we don't quite know how Amir can handle that. He has done it twice, but in a big fight, at a new weight, against a bonafide 140lbs fighter?
We know Kotelnik can do it. And we know he can cope with pressure, which is usually Amir's way. We saw Marcos Maidana beat Victor Ortiz on
Sky Sports recently and the fact that Kotelnik beat Maidana on points, proves he can soak anything up. And believe me, I mean anything because Maidana is a nutcase!
That result raises his stock a little, but more than anything underlines what we already knew: that Andreas Kotelnik is a good, solid pro, with a good defence. Maidana though, would've suited him down to the ground because he just comes straight forward and it's easy to see what's coming next.
Frustrated
Khan will have to show a cuteness that we haven't seen before - simply because we haven't needed to. But the champion is different to any sort of opponent he has faced so far. And better. Barrera was a clever little fighter, but unfortunately he was well down the line - Kotelnik is a world champion at his peak.
The real danger I see for Amir though, is that he could get frustrated. He is used to blowing guys away, which I can't see him doing here. And he is at home; athough he is the challenger, the onus will be on him to perform. I have the feeling there will be times when he has to win over one or two sections of the crowd and to do that, he will need a good performance.
But Kotelnik is one of those fighters it is difficult to look good against. If Amir gets caught up with all the hype and starts looking to throw those bombs, he can make mistakes. And the guy he is in against thrives on that. Amir wants to look good, but he has to be cute enough to punish Kotelnik.
He will have to commit himself and that is never ideal because it will leave him open - and we all know that could mean. The other thing to take into consideration when moving up is the punches coming the other way. Amir will have sparred with bigger guys, but he has never been hit by a bonafide welterweight in the ring.
His own power might improve at 140lbs, but so far his speed has been the key to his success. There is no doubting his all-round ability, but I just can't see him knocking Kotelnik out which means he will have to pace himself. Can he keep that famous speed up over a long distance?
Pacing
The parallel of what might go wrong is Enzo Maccarinelli's last fight against Ola Afolabi. Enzo was winning every round against a guy not making any impression, then all of a sudden he started to tire and because Afolabi had not been working at the same pace, he took over, finished the fight - all because the Welshman had nothing left in the tank.
When you have a defensive fighter, like Kotelnik, you have to perfect the art of pacing yourself. I am sure Freddie Roach will have been working on that scenario and we do know Amir is always in great shape. And if he does get ahead of himself and too excited, Freddie will soon be telling him to pace himself, keep something back for the last third.
Tactics-wise Roach usually gets it spot-on and I think we will see what we saw against Barrera. There is still the doubt about Amir's chin, so he will only move into range when he's punching again - and then use that tremendous speed to get back out, sharpish.
Fighters are at their most vulnerable when they are throwing punches, so Amir cannot afford to stay close. He needs to get in, let off those tremendous combinations seven or eight times a round and keep his chin tucked in when he does.
I don't think he will have enough power, even at 140lbs, to knock Kotelnik out. The one problem Amir's tremendous speed brings is that it he throws punches so quickly, it is almost impossible for him to set himself. I think we are looking at sheer volume of punches if he is to break through Kotelnik.
Convincing
Before we have seen referee's jump in when he is overwhelming guys who weren't really hurt, but this is a world-title fight and I know the referee, Stanley Christodoulou, very well; he will know Kotelnik is a guy who can take punches with his arms, roll them off, even if it is all one-way. I can't see the referee stopping this.
I think we are looking at a points win for Khan, and a fairly convincing one at that.
Which ever way he does it, winning the world title will give the lad a little bit of breathing space - for once. Ever since his heroics as a 17-year-old there has been pressure on him in every fight. I think he will have a mandatory (against Dimitri Salita) fairly soon, but if he gets that WBA belt, Khan can relax for a bit at least.
But it is not a foregone conclusion. Kotelnik is a different fighter to anything he has seen before; he is happy blocking punches, messing the other guy up and trying to get him to do things that were outside his original gameplan. And don't forget he doesn't have to look good, he doesn't have to impress anyone.
I really don't see this being over before the last third of the fight and when it gets that far, I don't think Kotelnik is the sort of guy to go hell for leather, go for the knockout - even if he is losing, which I expect him to be. He will see it out to the end, but I don't think he'll be keeping that world title.
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