Glenn McCrory tries to answer the question on everybody's lips... how will David actually beat Goliath?
Glenn's heart says yes, but his head says no
Never before a fight have I been asked the same question, so many times: Can David Haye win?
Even for the big, big megafights we have shown down the years on
Sky Sports, the interest hasn't been this high. People who know me, people who have never met me, even my colleagues here at Sky, are all asking the same thing.
I am not sure I have the answers, but I do know this is a truly fascinating fight. And it is a pretty crazy match-up when you just look at the size we are dealing with - it truly is David and Goliath.
I have been in the ring with little Spencer Oliver this week re-enacting the big man-little man scenario and as the big guy, I can't tell you how good it felt! It is so hard to see how Haye can get past this huge, huge guy and win.
Everyone goes on about Valuev's height but don't forget the sheer weight of the guy as well. Haye is going to come in under 16 stones and even if the Russian did look a little lighter than usual, we are still talking about six stones difference here.
What happens when he starts leaning that dead weight on Haye? That is one of many concerns I have going into this. Every time I come up with an area or an aspect that Haye can have some success in, my head comes up with a reason he can't pull off what will be a massive, massive result.
But for all his size, as I have said many times before, Valuev is not a fiersome heavyweight fighter; this is not Mike Tyson we are talking about here.
And he has been beaten, by a much smaller man, and probably lighter puncher than David Haye. And if Ruslan Chagaev can do it, then you have to say David has a chance.
Common sense
And if a gameplan has already worked against him, it's common sense for Adam Booth and his man to have been working on adopting that.
Breaking it down, this is what David needs to beat Goliath:
Speed - David has to get past that big, long jab. He has to get inside Valuev - he has the speed to do it, he needs plenty of movement and he can't afford to be a static target. His handspeed is good, but he needs to be light on his feet. This is the one area where I do think he is fine.
Discipline - Once he's got past that jab, he has to get his shots off - to the body especially - and get out of range quickly. That is a big worry I have because like so many 'right ways' to beat this guy, it goes against David's natural fighting persona. He loves to stand and trade and get involved in a toe-to-toe scrap. That can't happen here.
Stamina - If he is to get in and out quickly, he is going to have to work harder than he ever is. My one hope is that he has put in hours and hours of roadwork - more than ever before. Again though, we have seen David blow up in dramatic fashion against Carl Thompson. That might have been a few years ago, but I still have my doubts about his ability to last the distance.
A fast start - Even if they have worked on going the distance, Haye has to make a fast start for two reasons. The first is, if he is going to catch Valuev on the chin he wants to be doing it when he is at his freshest, on full throttle. Secondly, it might even be he is able to establish an early lead and at the very least, take Valuev out of his comfort zone.
Rhythm - He needs to do what Evander Holyfield did and what Chagaev did, but Holyfield in particular set up and followed his gameplan perfectly, only to come up a little short. And David will be a lot, lot fresher than dear old Evander was. And when he does go in on a raid, you would back him to pack more of a punch than a 46-year-old!
A stoppage -I am afraid I think that might be the best he can hope for. If he is going to become the first man to stop this guy he needs to catch him cleanly on the chin and then jump in with loads of punches and hopes the ref steps in. The sheer size of Valuev might just mean he is impossible to put down.
Wobbled
If he can follow any of those, some of those and ideally all of those, David Haye could pull off the shock. Looking down Valuev's record, he has barely been wobbled, never stopped, so it's hard to see how a guy with just two heavyweight fights is going to pull that off.
But a points win is not beyond the realms of possibility. John Ruiz, took Valuev to a split decision in Berlin not so long ago, so for all the talk of hometown decisions in Germany, it can be done.
Yet other than that John Ruiz fight, there are some decent names on Valuev's record: Larry Donald (won on points), Monte Barrett (stopped in 11), Jameel McCline (retired in three), Evander Holyfield (won on points). They are all decent names and all decent heavyweights. Can we safely say David Haye is a decent heavyweight? At this stage we just don't know.
Even if my heart says he can, my head keeps telling me David can't topple Goliath.
The rewards are absolutely massive, because if he can take this giant down, it will be huge; the boxing world will be his oyster. Even if he is an unlucky loser, who puts up a good show, it will do his standing the the world of good.
I am trying to convince myself he can win; for David, for British boxing and the heavyweight division. But every argument I come up with I can come up with at least another counter-argument against it and if you were to pin me down, I would have to say Valuev wins this, possibly late on.
Like I say, I hope I've got this wrong.
