In the first of his two-part preview, Adam Smith wonders if David Haye has done his homework.
Does Haye have the discipline and desire to see this through?
The moment of truth is nearly upon us. Can David Haye, our charismatic and flamboyant former cruiserweight king, bring the world heavyweight title back to South London?
It is a fascinating boxing question, possibly the most interesting of 2009.
Like my colleague, Glenn McCrory, people have been stopping me everywhere to ask if David will conquer Goliath.
In the office, amongst my family and friends (including those non-boxing fans), and even one or two on the streets of the capital!
It's not every day that one gets a bright British fighter aiming to return from a hard foreign mission, clutching one of sport's ultimate accolades.
This unusual promotion has kept folk gripped. Team Haye's often tacky gimmicks to unsettle the quiet, intelligent Nikolai Valuev have made many cringe, but they have brought colour and bravado to the build-up.
The Russian looks too serious to be particularly bothered; one imagines he's had plenty of experience of dealing with jibes about his physical appearance over the years. Haye believes an angry Valuev will charge in and be there for him to counter; but is this a naïve attitude?
What David has been is a breath of fresh air over the last few weeks. In a series of television appearances, the Hayemaker has entertained and amused his public. Contrary to Team Valuev's beliefs, Haye has surely made new fans.
He speaks well, he's good-looking, he's funny, and he has bags of charisma. And of course Haye loves to fight, and craves knockouts. How the heavyweight world is crying out for this perfect blend of flavoursome ingredients.
Haye's comments on
Soccer AM about needing 'fit' ring card girls to help fire him up were hysterical! I bumped into Richard Keys last week, and he said that David was brilliant on the
Paul O'Grady Show. Talk about doing the rounds, he's been on every possible programme apart from
Question Time!
Sensible
So David Haye has more than done his bit for pre-fight publicity. Whether, in boxing terms, this is a sensible approach to the most important night of his career is of course questionable. We shall see.
Some believe Team Haye are approaching this as a one-hit wonder. He's getting this chance after only two fights in the heavyweight division. Is it a case of grabbing the cash and running off to a nice life beneath the North Cyprus sunset?
Do Adam Booth and David deep down totally believe they can win, or are they telling themselves they can? Could Haye really be expected to capture this belt, go on to unify the division like his hero Lennox Lewis, and get out of the game as world heavyweight champion after five more fights?
The training and preparation - largely at odd times of the night and away from the media glare - will be absolutely crucial for Haye's ability to cope with Valuev.
Has he worked hard enough, for long enough? Valuev clones are nigh on impossible to find, so how effective has sparring been? Will he be conditioned and extra-fit to deal with the enormous difference in weight?
Valuev will have prepared meticulously in Germany. Have no doubts about that.
Enthralling
Training is key. As Muhammad Ali used to say: "Fail to prepare, prepare to fail." This is so important to this particular fight.
It's terrific that this enticing showdown has captured the imagination of many outside the trade and I hope everyone - big fight fan or not - enjoys seeing how this enthralling drama will unfold and conclude in the Nuremberg ring.
Let's make one thing clear - nobody is 100 per cent certain either way. Of course, that is often the case in boxing, but here, it most definitely is. There are just so many possible outcomes.
Does size matter? Most of the time, a good big'un will beat a good little'un. Remember Riddick Bowe bouncing Herbie Hide around? That image keeps coming back to me.
Yet size was proved irrelevant by the wonderful Jack Dempsey, and the extraordinary Evander Holyfield. Furthermore, Michael Spinks showed that a great light-heavyweight can become a heavyweight champion when he beat Larry Holmes, and Roy Jones stunned boxing by climbing right up through the weights to defeat John Ruiz.
It's tough, so tough - but it can be done.
Seasoned
Tactics are extremely vital, especially for Haye, who in many ways must stamp his mark on this fight quickly and effectively. He's the challenger, he's the man who needs to rip the belt away from a seasoned and assured champion, who's remained at ease in front of his own fans. Haye must get Valuev out of his comfort zone.
Valuev's style may not look pretty, but it's been awkwardly effective, and he's adapted very well from those poor novice days. You don't win 50 fights, against the likes of John Ruiz, Evander Holyfield, Sergei Lyakhovich and Jameel McCline, if you can't box at all.
Valuev uses his 85-inch reach to push out a huge jab, controls the centre of the ring, and flings out right hands, and uppercuts. I always bang on about how important uppercuts are in boxing. Valuev has tried to perfect this vital punch, because he's always tackling smaller men, and can catch them unawares as they advance.
Haye, though, will surely also need to use the uppercut as a weapon against the much taller man. It might be one of the few shots that can actually reach Valuev's chin!
What he should try is to work Valuev's body, which has become a touch more fleshy in the latter stages of his 16-year career.
Haye is so much fresher, quicker and possesses the type of fiery combinations that could rattle the champion. He might need to create an unpredictable pace with explosive bursts, as he zips in and out of range quickly. One gets the feeling he needs to at least stun and sting Valuev as he does.
The only man to have beaten Valuev overcame a weight disadvantage of six-and-a-half stone, and used in and out speed and angles. Ruslan Chagaev's also not as tall as Haye. He is a southpaw, though, and I've noticed David has been switching a great deal during his pad work. It's possible he will try to confuse and befuddle Valuev, darting around with clever movement.
Conditioning
Yet, to execute raiding tactics, he's going to have to show far better stamina than we have seen before. He was outlasted in just five rounds by Carl Thompson, went through a mini-crisis against Giacobbe Fragomeni (although showed heart and guts to survive a horrible cut and wobbly moments) and was blowing against Monte Barrett.
Fast feet and agile movement will be key for Haye to win this way. Yet will he have the conditioning and experience to pull this off over 36 minutes against a man-mountain - especially if Valuev starts leaning on him mid-fight and zapping Haye's strength and energy?
The Russian giant's also been here and seen this through 52 professional fights. He has completed 12 rounds on 11 occasions; David Haye just the once in a non-competitive European cruiserweight spar with Ismail Abdoul.
To make matters worse, how solid is the Haye chin? Many critics say he doesn't hold a punch at all well, and I know that Team Valuev believe he's particularly susceptible around the temple area. That could spell major trouble against a man as tall as Valuev.
Haye will need improved concentration and discipline, plus a far tighter defence for what could end up being a technical task. His arms - especially the left - are often kept low, as he relies on his sharp reflexes.
Worringly, he was decked by blown up super-middleweight Lolenga Mock. He was down against Thompson and Jean-Marc Mormeck (before again proving his bottle to get up for his biggest win to date), and in his last wild affair with Barrett - although that wasn't counted.
He was also flattened in the amateurs by the relatively unknown Jim Twite.
However, Haye has also stood up to flush shots. That clash with Fragomeni showed Haye has some resistance and plenty of character. The Italian has gone on to win a world title, so that ninth-round stoppage is good form - but it was down at cruiserweight.
The brighter news for Haye supporters is that the Londoner seems young enough, athletic enough, brave enough, hungry enough, ambitious enough, confident enough and driven enough.
It's almost time for David to prove he has the complete arsenal to slay this Goliath.
