Cricket World Cup: How can England still qualify for semi-finals?
Reigning world champions England have lost four of their first five matches at the Cricket World Cup to leave them on the brink of an early group-stage exit in India; watch England's next World Cup match against India live on Sky Sports Cricket on Sunday (8.30am start)
Sunday 29 October 2023 19:22, UK
England’s Cricket World Cup hopes are hanging by a thread as they endure a nightmare defence of their title in India, although there is still a faint chance of them going on a run and making an unlikely late push for the semi-finals.
The 2019 champions have lost four of their opening five matches - their latest an eight-wicket embarrassment against Sri Lanka - to sit ninth in the 10-team table on two points, with only the top four sides progressing beyond the group stage.
England were also thrashed by New Zealand in their group opener, the same two sides who featured in the final four years earlier, before following a lone victory over Bangladesh with a shock 69-run defeat against Afghanistan.
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A dismal 229-run defeat to South Africa was next, England's record ODI defeat by runs, before they were bundled out for 156 by Sri Lanka, leaving them on the cusp of a group-stage exit and needing "a few miracles", according to their skipper Jos Buttler.
What do England need to do?
The round-robin format gives England four more fixtures to accumulate points and move up the table, with victories in the lot taking them to 10 points and with an outside chance of still reaching the knockout stage - depending on how other teams perform over the next couple of weeks.
There is a high possibility that net run-rate could determine the final qualification spots, which is calculated by using the average runs per over scored by a team and then subtracting the average runs per over scored against them.
That metric is used when teams remain level on points at the end of the group stage, with the team holding the best net run-rate in that scenario then qualifying.
England are in desperate need of improving theirs as, following four heavy defeats so far, it currently sits at -1.634 after five matches.
That said, currently more than half of the teams hold a negative net run-rate and so one big victory along the way for Buttler's men could significantly change that number.
Who have England still got to play?
It certainly doesn't get any easier for England as they face table-topping tournament hosts India on Sunday.
A fourth successive defeat, and fifth in total, would surely quash any remaining faint hope of securing a semi-final spot, given it would mean they can only earn a maximum of eight points from the group stage - with rivals for qualification Australia and Pakistan, either side of the Netherlands, still to play.
India may have lost top spot by the time that game takes place, with New Zealand - two points behind and holding a better run-rate - facing Australia the previous day, although a sixth consecutive win would all-but guarantee their passage into the semi-finals.
Should England shock Rohit Sharma's men and stay in the race to qualify, then their fixture on November 4 against Australia - who currently sit in fourth place on six points and have progressed from the group stage in every Cricket World Cup since 1996 - is likely to be a crucial clash, especially if the Black Caps were to beat them on the Saturday.
England then face the Netherlands in Pune on November 8, with Buttler's side hoping to not already be eliminated when they round off their group campaign against Pakistan on November 11.
Can England afford any more slip ups?
Technically, no. BUT, incredibly, there is still a scenario in which England lose to India on Sunday or to the Netherlands later in the tournament - taking them up to a massive five defeats for the tournament - and still qualify!
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They'd need A LOT of things to go their way in order for that to happen. With India already on 10 points, and South Africa and New Zealand both currently tied on eight, a further defeat for England would see eight points become the maximum they could possibly achieve - and so the top three would likely be impossible to catch.
They must therefore hope that the chasing pack of Australia, Pakistan and Afghanistan don't better that haul of eight points, nor Bangladesh or the Netherlands - who Buttler's side are currently rooted at the bottom of the table with - for that matter.
It's why England can potentially afford to lose against India or the Netherlands and be okay, while defeats in either of their other two games against Australia or Pakistan would be far more damaging and, likely, tournament-ending.
What happens if England lose to India?
Here's a look at just one of the many scenarios - however unlikely - of how results could perhaps go England's way, even with a fifth defeat, and they qualify courtesy of net run-rate, providing they significantly improve on their current mark (-1.634).
Correct as of October 27, assuming as India, South Africa and New Zealand are three of the teams to reach the semi-finals:
- England - Lose to India, beat Australia, beat Netherlands, beat Pakistan - Eight points
- Australia - Lose to New Zealand, lose to England, lose to Afghanistan, beat Bangladesh - Eight points
- Bangladesh - Beat Netherlands, lose to Pakistan, beat Sri Lanka, lose to Australia - Six points
- Pakistan - beat Bangladesh, lose to New Zealand, lose to England - Six points
- Sri Lanka - Beat Afghanistan, lose to India, lose to Bangladesh, lose to New Zealand - Six points
- Afghanistan - Lose to Sri Lanka, lose to Netherlands, beat Australia, lose to South Africa - Six points
- Netherlands - Lose to Bangladesh, beat Afghanistan, lose to England, lose to India - Four points
Inconceivable? Yes. Far-fetched? Yes. Miraculous? Yes. Down-right impossible? Probably. But it currently is mathematically possible.
When can I watch England?
England are next in action against hosts India on Sunday (8am on Sky Sports Cricket, 8.30am start), with their qualification hopes in the balance. Watch every game of the 2023 ICC Men's Cricket World Cup live on Sky Sports. You can stream the tournament on NOW.
