Semi-final qualification in England's hands after crucial win over New Zealand; England will face Sri Lanka in Sydney on Saturday, live on Sky Sports, knowing exactly what they need to do to make last four; Australia's current inferior net run-rate leaves hosts in danger of early exit
Friday 4 November 2022 05:20, UK
Qualification for the T20 World Cup semi-finals is in England's hands.
By the time they walk out for their final Group 1 game against Sri Lanka on Saturday - live on Sky Sports Cricket from 7.30am - they will know exactly what they need to do to clinch a spot in next week's knockout stage.
A victory of any description will be enough if one or both of New Zealand and Australia suffer defeats on Friday, with all three sides currently locked together on five points from four matches, after two wins, one loss and a no result each.
However, New Zealand will be heavy favourites to beat Ireland and Australia likewise against Afghanistan, so there is the distinct possibility that net run-rate will decide who progresses from this pool and into the last four.
Table toppers New Zealand have the advantage on that front at the moment, despite a 20-run defeat to England in Brisbane on Tuesday, with thumping wins over Australia and Sri Lanka powering their net run-rate to a very healthy + 2.233.
A win over Ireland (4am UK time on Friday) should guarantee their progress.
Second-placed England's run-rate is +0.547, giving them a significant advantage over third-placed Australia at this stage, with the hosts and defending champions trailing on -0.304, meaning they will require quite the swing to overhaul England if both teams end up on seven points from their five matches.
Australia, though, could be facing an Afghanistan side (8am UK time on Friday) without key man Rashid Khan after the leg-spinner hobbled off during his side's six-wicket defeat to Sri Lanka on Tuesday.
Afghanistan's loss eliminated them from semi-final contention but left their opponents very much in it, with Sri Lanka able to make the top two if one or both of Australia and New Zealand slip up and they beat England.
Sri Lanka - now helmed by former England head coach Chris Silverwood - will move onto six points if they triumph in Sydney on Saturday, which would be enough to qualify if either Afghanistan or Ireland do them a favour a day earlier.
Even if they are out by the time they play again due to New Zealand and Australia victories, Sri Lanka would still have the chance to end England's hopes.
Ireland still have an extremely remote chance of qualifying themselves.
For that to happen, they would need to trounce New Zealand to significantly boost their current net run-rate of -1.544 and move above the Black Caps, an incredibly tall order considering the current gulf between the sides on that front.
Ireland would then require Afghanistan to beat Australia to stay in contention.
In truth, it's really a case of two from four, which will become two from three if Australia and New Zealand win their games on Friday and eliminate Sri Lanka.
Whatever happens, England will head to Sydney able to determine their own fate.
Watch the T20 World Cup live on Sky Sports with England vs Sri Lanka live on Sky Sports Cricket & Main Event from 7.30am on Saturday. The final is at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Sunday, November 13 (8am UK time).
