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Kimi Antonelli F1 title permutations: How Mercedes driver could clinch world championship at United States GP
It's only an outside chance, but Kimi Antonelli will have a first opportunity to make F1 history and become 2026's world champion as soon as this weekend; watch the United States Grand Prix live on Sky Sports F1, with coverage under way from Friday and Sunday's race at 8pm
Friday 23 October 2026 00:27, UK
Kimi Antonelli could become Formula 1's youngest world champion as early as this Sunday at the United States Grand Prix.
Mercedes' Antonelli increased his lead at the top of the Drivers' Championship to a season-high 102 points with a third-place finish in the Singapore Grand Prix two weeks ago.
George Russell remains second in the standings but a ninth-place finish after engine penalties had left him starting at the back of the grid dropped him beyond a century of points behind his team-mate for the first time, while Lewis Hamilton's late slide off the podium leaves the Ferrari driver 111 points off the pace in third place.
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With such a large lead and with a scheduled six races left in the 2026 season, the world title now looks a formality for the 20-year-old Italian in just his second year of F1 to usurp Sebastian Vettel as the sport's youngest title winner. Vettel was 23 when he claimed his first championship in 2010.
Antonelli's first chance - albeit an outside one - to clinch the crown will arrive as soon as the next race, which takes place this weekend at Austin's Circuit of the Americas, live on Sky Sports F1…
How Antonelli could win the title at the United States GP
There will be five scheduled races left - Mexico, Brazil, Las Vegas, Qatar and Abu Dhabi - after the United States Grand Prix takes place on Sunday October 25 and a maximum of 125 points left to play for.
To win the title in Austin, Antonelli needs to increase his championship lead by 23 points. For that to happen he must win the grand prix AND then hope both Russell and Hamilton do not score sufficient points to stay within 124 points of him going to Mexico.
The permutations for Antonelli to become champion in Austin are:
- Antonelli wins the race (25 points)
and
- Russell finishes ninth or lower (2 points or less)
and
- Hamilton finishes fifth or lower (10 points or less)
Were Antonelli to win the race and Russell finish ninth, Antonelli would hold a 125-point lead over his team-mate with exactly 125 points left to play for. But that would still be enough for Antonelli to become champion, provided Hamilton was also still outside the top four in the race.
That is because victory in Austin would be the the Italian's ninth of the year and with Russell on three wins the Briton would only be able to get to a maximum of eight in the five races left. Antonelli would therefore be guaranteed the title on results countback, with race wins the first tiebreaker in event of an end-of-season points tie.
What about the other drivers still in mathematical contention?
Max Verstappen (119 points back), Charles Leclerc (125 points back) and Lando Norris (139 points back) all remain in mathematical title contention too after Singapore but would all be automatically knocked out by an Antonelli win in Austin wherever they finished that race.
When can Mercedes clinch the Constructors' Championship?
Mercedes have to wait at least a further week to the Mexico City Grand Prix before a first potential chance to wrap up the Constructors' Championship could open up.
The Silver Arrows lead Ferrari by a commanding 134 points but there will still be a maximum of 215 points to play for after this Sunday's race in Austin. The furthest that Mercedes can be ahead after this weekend is 177 points.
The number of points remaining drops to 172 points by the end of the Mexico City race on November 1, meaning Mercedes need to increase their current lead across the next two events by at least 38 points to be champions with four races left.
If not, then the Sao Paulo Grand Prix on November 8 will be their next - and arguably, best - chance, when they will only need to be 129 points clear, five fewer than now.
'If I don't do my job well, then the result won't come' - Antonelli vows to stay focused
Antonelli is now within touching distance of an incredible historic achievement but stressed after Singapore that he cannot afford to let that fact distract him from his performance in Austin.
"I know it's very close, I know it's there, but I just need to make sure that I keep doing the best I can," he said.
"You know, the mindset is always the same, to go out there and win and perform the best way I can. I think this weekend [in Singapore] I haven't particularly driven that well. I felt like I could have done a better job, but I feel confident that, you know, a week to reset and I'm really looking forward to being back in Austin.
Sky Sports F1's live United States GP schedule
Friday October 23
6pm: United States Grand Prix Practice One (session starts at 6.30pm)*
8pm: The F1 Show
9.45pm: United States Grand Prix Practice Two (session starts at 10pm)*
11.50pm: F1 Academy Race 1*
Saturday October 24
6.15pm: United States Grand Prix Practice Three (session starts at 6.30pm)
8.30pm: United States Grand Prix Qualifying build-up*
10pm: UNITED STATES GRAND PRIX QUALIFYING*
12am: F1 Academy Race 2*
12.45am: Ted's Qualifying Notebook*
Sunday October 25
5pm: F1 Academy Race 3
6.30pm: Grand Prix Sunday: United States GP build-up*
8pm: THE UNITED STATES GRAND PRIX*
10pm: Chequered Flag: United States GP reaction
11pm: Ted's Notebook
*also on Sky Sports Main Event
Formula 1 next heads to The Americas for another triple header with the United States Grand Prix in Austin up first from this Friday, live on Sky Sports F1. Stream Sky Sports with NOW - no contract, cancel anytime
