Wednesday 23 September 2015 11:15, UK
Rory McIlroy looks the pick of some ultra-strong market leaders in this week's Tour Championship at East Lake, says betting expert David John.
The top five in the FedEx Cup standings control their own destiny this week as the PGA Tour season comes down to the final 30 players in the Tour Championship at East Lake in Atlanta.
A win for any of Jason Day, Jordan Spieth, Rickie Fowler, Henrik Stenson or Bubba Watson will ensure they take home the $10m bonus on offer - the rest of the field are still in there pitching but the maths required for those lower down the list understandably gets increasingly complex with No 30 Harris English needing something akin to a minor miracle.
The chances of new world No 1 Jason Day is the obvious place to start after the Australian has spent the second half of the summer beating up his rivals on the golf course - his tally of wins on the PGA Tour in 2015 now stands at five after he lapped the field by six shots last week at the BMW Championship.
The new world No 1 tees it up as the 7/2 favourite and reaching the pinnacle of the sport is fitting reward for a spell of golf that has seen him post a combined total of 67 under par in his last four events.
But there simply has to be a point when it all finally catches up with him so hopping on the bandwagon at this stage at a pretty short price seems a bit silly. I want to take him on, on balance, bearing in mind as well a top-five finish could still get him over the line in terms of scooping the really big bucks.
So who looks best placed to win?
Jordan Spieth has shown exactly the signs mentioned above, just a little bit sooner in the campaign - two major wins, one other title, a host of high finishes and a brief spell on top of the pile took a toll - it has to - and his form since the PGA Championship has dipped pretty sharply in comparison.
He never really looked like catching Day in Chicago but did get into the mix for a decent finish only to eventually shoot level par over the weekend and finish T13.
Spieth felt that his game was not too far away and the shots that were missing were just a little bit wider than earlier in the campaign. His coach will be on site at East Lake and a little bit of input from that source could make a difference - he finished in a tie for second here back in 2013.
But it is second favourite Rory McIlroy who gets the vote from me for victory and at least give himself a chance of hoisting the FedEx Cup from his current position of 11th place in the standings.
Undoubtedly fresher than all of his counterparts following his enforced mid-summer layoff with ruptured ankle ligaments, I will say again that Rory has stunned me with the swiftness of his recovery.
I genuinely thought we may not see him on a golf course again in 2015, let alone show the form that has him on the brink of winning one of the most prestigious events in the USA outside of the majors.
His long game since his comeback has been quite sublime and it has only been the low conversion rate on the greens that has held him back now those injury woes are behind him.
McIlroy finished T2 here 12 months ago behind Billy Horschel and admitted in his post-round interview that he was very much mentally fatigued - the opposite is the case on this occasion and surely the final piece of the puzzle will be a little tweak with the putter.
He was T4 last week in both Total Driving and Greens In Regulation and I am pretty sweet on his chances of eclipsing all the big names and finishing off one season in style - before quickly starting the next in a couple of weeks in California.
I can't make any bold claims that McIlroy's price represents great value - it is what it is - but those looking for a runner at juicier odds could do worse than get with Kevin Kisner at 66/1.
The little bit of 80s that was around has been hoovered up and a big finish here to cap a breakthrough season for the former Georgia Bulldog would not be the biggest surprise in the world.
Kisner wanted to work on three fundamentals in 2015 - improving his driving, better ball-striking and more consistent bunker play - and the results have been exceptional all things considered.
He has got himself into contention on numerous occasions, coming within a whisker of a first PGA Tour title via three play-off defeats at Hilton Head, The PLAYERS Championship and Greenbrier.
Kisner did very little wrong on each occasion to my eye and has emerged as a player with a tremendous temperament under the intense pressure of a Sunday afternoon.
A closing 66 at Conway Farms sets him up nicely and he is looking forward to a return to the Bermuda greens that he grew up on while he will also relish the support he will get just down the road from his beloved University of Georgia in Athens.
This will be Kisner's first competitive look at East Lake but I am optimistic he will adapt comfortably and go well at a decent price.
