Bubba Watson favourite to win Shenzhen International
Thursday 16 April 2015 21:08, UK
Bubba Watson is the headline act in the Shenzhen International and will take the world of beating if in his best form, for what’s not the most competitive of events.
Watson is a 13/2 favourite but is fully entitled to respect even at that price given that he’s so far in front of the field here. That he’s the only one to have played the Masters last week serves to underline his class advantage while also raising a concern – will he have recovered in time to produce 72 solid holes?
It’s hard to know what to expect but Watson is worth keeping on-side with a win-only bet because if he does produce, the rest need to find improvement to get anywhere close to him. Fully focused, he could win this by a handful.
The Volvo China Open was played at this course a year ago with Frenchman Alexander Levy winning his first European Tour title in stunning fashion.
Throughout the early part of this season, Levy was striving to make the Masters and I just fancy with that weight now off his shoulders – albeit not in the way he’d have liked – we will see some improvement.
However, the same applies to Tommy Fleetwood and I believe he’s the better bet at the price.
Fleetwood was second to Levy here last year having hit an identical number of greens and there was much to like about the way he struck the ball in Morocco three weeks ago, eventually settling for 17th behind Richie Ramsay.
The Englishman has a solid record in the Far East and if he putts well shouldn’t be far away.
Similar comments apply to Ross Fisher who looks a shade overpriced at anything around the 40/1 mark.
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Fisher was sent off favourite for the Trophee Hassan last time out, ahead of a number of these in the betting, so while a missed cut was disappointing there does seem to have been an overreaction to it.
The fact that he also missed the cut here does raise some concerns but since then Fisher has recaptured his form, including in a play-off defeat to Marcel Siem when last teeing it up in China.
It strikes me that the exposed nature of this week’s course should in fact suit this multiple winner who is a class above all bar the favourite when at his best.
Finally, Lucas Bjerregaard is worth supporting at 150/1.
The big-hitting Dane struggled at the tight Trophee Hassan last time but prior to that had hinted at better things to come with a top-20 in South Africa.
We saw before Christmas just how good he can be in the Alfred Dunhill Championship at Leopard Creek, where for three rounds he served it up to Branden Grace only to capitulate on Sunday.
It clearly took this burgeoning young talent a while to get over that experience but he’ll be all the better for it in time, and this wide, low-scoring track should prove ideal.
Interestingly, he was fifth in Hong Kong towards the end of 2014, a performance which all but secured his playing rights, and it could pay to follow him at this sort of price.
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