Watch Los Angeles Lakers @ Milwaukee Bucks live on Sky Sports Action and Sky Sports Main Event in the early hours of Friday morning (1am)
Friday 20 December 2019 00:21, UK
The unique talents of Anthony Davis and Giannis Antetokounmpo make the Los Angeles Lakers' meeting with the Milwaukee Bucks the essential modern-day NBA spectacle, writes Sky Sports NBA analyst Mark Deeks.
Tonight's contest between the Milwaukee Bucks and the Los Angeles Lakers could well serve as a preview of the 2020 NBA Finals.
Heading into the match-up, the two teams are at the top of their respective conferences, and by quite some way. Both are on a 24-4 record; the Lakers are three-and-a-half games ahead of the second-placed LA Clippers out West, while the Bucks have a four-and-a-half game lead over the Boston Celtics in the East.
Both teams also recently went on enormous win streaks - only a loss to the Indiana Pacers last time out ended a seven-game stretch for the Lakers, itself immediately preceded by a 10-gamer for 17 wins in their last 19, while a loss last time out for Milwaukee to the Dallas Mavericks ended an 18-game winning streak, the joint 11th-longest in NBA history.
They are good. They are both very, very good.
Both teams also offer an absolute 'unicorn' in their frontcourt. The unique game-changing talents of Anthony Davis and Giannis Antetokounmpo are at the core of each team's greatness; the Lakers can, of course, boast LeBron James as well in one of the strongest two-man games of all time, while the Bucks offer plenty of depth and defense to overcome not having a second superstar of that calibre, yet it is the potential pairing of those two that makes this such a modern-day spectacle.
You could not have match-ups like this in the past. Players like these did not exist.
Key for both teams, then, is to get as much out of these individuals as possible. And the key to that will be how each defends the other.
Historically, Davis has been reticent to play the center spot, and the fact the Lakers have paired him with JaVale McGee and Dwight Howard (and also would have had DeMarcus Cousins had injuries permitted it) sees them acquiesce to that request. Davis has, however, seemingly softened his stance on the position of late, because as the league as a whole gets quicker and less focused on the interior, instead prioritising perimeter play from the big man positions, there is less of a physical grind involved.
This plays well into Davis's abilities to score and initiate offense from all over, and provide help defense across the interior rather than wasting his shot-blocking talents in man-to-man situations.
The same is all largely true of Giannis, except there is no doubt he does not have to play center. Indeed, for a while, the Bucks went the other way and played him at point guard. In what is still largely a point guard role offensively, Antetokounmpo is mercifully not having to defend the position, instead being a free-roaming dynamo in the league's best defense.
The Bucks are ranked first in the league in defensive rating by quite some way. They are also second in defensive rebounding percentage, first in field goal percentage given up, second in effective field goal percentage given up, first in fewest second-chance points, first in field goal percentage defense inside of five feet, and they also give up the fewest paint points of any team in the league. They shut it down inside and are designed specifically to do so.
Instead of having Giannis play the five-spot, the Lopez twins, Brook and Robin, man the position for almost every minute. Brook's reinvention as the epitome of the modern-day five-man who spreads the floor offensively from the perimeter while also protecting the basket is well documented, and with 2.2 blocks per game on the season, he is fulfilling his role defensively, even though his shot on the other end has not turned up yet.
Meanwhile, although he lacks for the same floor-stretching element in his game (although he is shooting more efficiently from three that far this season than Brook, for what it's worth), Robin is a solid offensive option in and around the painted area, while also an active defender and shot blocker himself. Giannis is a big part of the Bucks' interior defense, certainly, yet being able to play around these two puts him in the positions he operates in best.
It was the arrival of Mike Budenholzer as head coach from the Atlanta Hawks that saw the Bucks become as competitive as they now are. Upon arrival, Budenholzer took much the same Bucks roster, added Brook Lopez to it, and created a defensive scheme accordingly. Where once Milwaukee tried to be aggressive on defense, looking to win possessions, force turnovers and gambling excessively, they now relentlessly contain.
Great shot blocker though he is, Brook is extremely slow laterally and thus never going to be effective at stepping up to the perimeter to defend the pick-and-roll. Instead, then, Budenholzer devised the defense around Lopez staying in the paint; ball-handler defenders are asked to try to go over the top of screens, the big is to sag back and protect the paint, and if the pull-up artists out there fancy giving it a go in the slither of space, so be it. Milwaukee would much rather give up the mid-range areas and the occasional pull-up from the perimeter than the interior.
It is for this reason that, even though they concede 37.0 per cent three-point shooting, the eighth-worst mark in the league, the Bucks still have the NBA's best defense. While they give up efficient three-point shooting, they do not give up much of it, conceding only the second-fewest total three-pointers on the year despite playing with the league's highest pace.
Just as the Bucks have the best interior defense in the league, the Lakers have the best interior offense. They feast heavily on field goals inside the paint, be it via fast breaks, second-chances or LeBron and Davis being able to get there, and they shoot middle-of-the-pack efficiency on a low volume from outside. That is to say, they are built to do the very things that Milwaukee are built to counter. Their offensive profile is so ideal for Milwaukee's defense that it is as if it was custom-built for it.
The quality of the Lakers' players, though, and Davis in particular, will mean it is not as simple as that.
Throughout this current incarnation of the Bucks, there has been a susceptibility to five-men who can stretch the floor. The Bucks are designed around stifling on the interior, be it either driving guards or big men rolling to the rim, but for those bigs who can create and initiate offense away from the basket, they do not have an individual who can check that. Robin is just as slow as Brook, thus not well equipped to do it, and DJ Wilson, theoretically a better weapon who can slide his feet far better than the twins, has still not become a reliable player in his third season.
The best option would, of course, be Antetokounmpo, who has the length and speed to be ideally built for the task. But to have him go man-to-man for long periods against someone like Davis not only takes him away from the help at which he is best but also runs the risk of putting him in foul trouble. There isn't a second Giannis available.
Davis is not merely a roller, finisher, lob threat and shooter. He is those things, of course, but he is also an offensive initiator. You can play Davis down in the post, from the elbow, on the roll or from outside the arc; you cannot ask the Lopez twins to defend him in all four positions.
Although he is not the most efficient shooter from either the mid-range or the three-point line, Davis must be defended accordingly, whereafter his ability to handle and pass the ball from those areas extremely well for his size complicates the defense. He is not just a threat to shoot; he is a threat to do everything.
Communicating on switches, helping one pass away, rotating around the perimeter… these things will help. These are also all things that Milwaukee are good at. They do not have to solve the Davis conundrum tonight, and nor really should they.
Considering there is nothing more important than reaching and winning the NBA Finals, Milwaukee are planning for the very realistic possibility that they get there, and given it is a very realistic possibility for the Lakers as well, they surely will not want to tip their hand and show the Lakers quite how they intend to counteract Davis. Or at least, not all of their plans - they will want to keep some schemes and match-up ideas to themselves for later on.
Going into tonight's game, then, we have not only the two best teams in the NBA currently, but the very literal definition of the unstoppable force meeting the immovable object.
Games like this are why it is a good thing that the NBA does not have draws.
