Watch the New Orleans Saints @ Dallas Cowboys, live on Sky Sports Action from 12.30am, Friday
Thursday 29 November 2018 22:45, UK
As the NFL heads into the final five weeks of the season, the battle for the playoff seedings is well and truly on.
Nowhere will that be felt more keenly than in Dallas where, to start Week 13, the Cowboys host the NFC-leading New Orleans Saints on Thursday Night Football - live on Sky Sports Action from 12.30am.
Cowboys owner Jerry Jones has already said Dallas need to treat this game as if "each play, we've got to think it's the Super Bowl play". And, given the team's recent change in fortune, it's hard to argue with Jones' assessment.
It was just four weeks ago that 'America's Team' slumped to a dreadful 28-14 defeat at the hands of the Tennessee Titans on a Monday night in Dallas, dropping their record to a lowly 3-5. At that point, many thought their season was already over.
That proved to be premature. A three-game winning streak, combined with the struggles of their NFC East rivals, has catapulted them right back into contention. Their Thanksgiving victory over the Washington Redskins - now without Alex Smith for the rest of the season - has lifted them to the top of the division.
Now at 6-5, the Cowboys are back in business. And if they wanted a true test of their playoff credentials, they have certainly found it.
The visiting Saints are the hottest team in the NFL, and head into Texas on a stunning 10-game winning streak, the latest triumph a 31-17 win over the Atlanta Falcons on Thanksgiving. They have the league's best record at 10-1, but with the Los Angeles Rams breathing down their neck in the NFC, they need every win they can get to secure the No 1 seed, and home-field advantage, in the playoffs.
They will be heavy favourites to make it 11 on the spin, but can the Cowboys continue their own good form and prove the doubters wrong once again? Here's a look at the three main areas where the game can be won and lost...
Teams are scoring at record pace this season, and the Saints are top of the pile. They are first for points per game at a staggering 37.2, their highest tally during the Drew Brees-Sean Payton era. They rank among the highest in the league for both passing and rushing yards, and have given up only a league-best 11 sacks.
Brees has been the spearhead. The 39-year-old quarterback is the leading MVP candidate in the league, with 29 touchdowns to go with just two interceptions - becoming the NFL's all-time leading passer to boot. Add to that their elite offensive line and offensive weapons such as Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas, and New Orleans are a scary prospect for any defense.
It's safe to assume the Saints are not going to have a bad offensive game by accident, and so the Cowboys are going to have play some seriously good defense if they are going to stem the scoring tide.
The good news is that they have been doing exactly that. Dallas are conceding just 19.4 points per game, third in the league. No opponent has scored more than 28 points on them all year, and they have excelled at pressuring QBs, with a total of 31 sacks and 71 QB hits.
In DeMarcus Lawrence, Tyrone Crawford and Randy Gregory, they have one of the most formidable defensive lines around. They also rank highly in stifling both rushing and passing yards - trends that they will certainly need to continue on Thursday night.
While Kamara, Kareem Hunt and Todd Gurley have captured the column inches this year, it is Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott who leads the league in rushing yards, with 1,074 for the year.
Simply put, if he plays well, the Cowboys play well. It is no coincidence that his last three performances - each returning over 120 rushing yards and a TD - have been in Dallas wins. His psychical running and workhorse attitude has transformed their ground attack in his three seasons as a pro, while he is also an underrated pass catcher, a seemingly essential trait in the modern back.
The bad news for Zeke is that the Saints - perhaps surprisingly - have the top rush defense in the league. They give up just 73 yards per game: for context, that is 20 yards fewer than the third-placed Baltimore Ravens. Their defensive front has been a brick wall.
Staggeringly, they have not given up 100 rushing yards to one player since Week 11 of last season. That stat is all the more impressive considering that they have faced the likes of Todd Gurley, Saquon Barkley and Adrian Peterson this year alone.
As the formidable rusher meets a brick wall defense, something will have to give. Zeke is so central to the Cowboys offense that they will have to get him going, even if he struggles early. If they are to win here, he will need to have a great game, and find the gaps that have eluded running backs before him.
Few players divide opinion in Dallas as much as quarterback Dak Prescott.
He has had quite the NFL journey: thrust into the starting role as a fourth-round draft pick, he enjoyed an outstanding rookie season in 2016, leading the side to a 13-3 record, before enduring a torrid sophomore slump last year.
Now, he is somewhere in the middle. Prescott has settled into a pattern of managing games effectively but unspectacularly, failing to make the big-yardage plays so often seen from the likes of Brees, Patrick Mahomes and Jared Goff.
Dak has not passed for over 300 yards in a game this year, nor thrown more than two touchdowns. It hasn't been all his fault though, as Dallas have lacked receivers who can stretch the field and gain those crucial yards after carry.
But fortunes are improving, as the mid-season acquisition of wide receiver Amari Cooper - arriving from the Oakland Raiders via a trade for a first-round pick - has so far paid dividends. The move had its risks: Cooper has had the league's worst drop rate in two of his three seasons in the NFL, but his pace and athleticism has provided Dallas with the deep threat they sorely needed.
While he is unlikely to repeat his Thanksgiving Day 180-yard, two TD performance - capped off by a 90-yard score in the third quarter - against the Saints, Cooper's mere presence should stretch the field, relieving the pressure on Dak and giving him more options in the passing game.
The ingredients are all there for a classic. The postseason may still be a few weeks away, but this Thursday night thriller has all the feel of a playoff game. As Jones says, this is Dallas' Super Bowl.
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