Hollie Doyle: Conditions favour French filly in the Nunthorpe

Hollie returns to preview Friday’s top-class action from York’s Ebor Festival, which includes the Group One Nunthorpe Stakes.

Rain an advantage for French filly in Nunthorpe

I do fear the change in conditions, following significant rain on the Knavesmire, will compromise the chances of the lightning-fast US raider Bacio in the Coolmore City Of Troy Nunthorpe Stakes (3:35) at York on Friday.

Wesley Ward's colt demonstrated unbelievable speed in the big three-year-old handicap at Royal Ascot, and there's no doubt the fast five-furlongs at York is ideal for him, but he's built his reputation on much faster ground.

By contrast, Aga Khan Studs' filly Rayevka won a Group race at ParisLongchamp in May on soft conditions before finding only Mission Central too good in the Group One King Charles III Stakes at the Royal meeting.

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She's versatile and speedy, and the stage looks set for her to turn the tables on Aidan O'Brien's colt, who probably didn't handle the track in the July Cup last time but is another who would be more potent on quicker ground.

It's a red-letter day for Scarlett

Don't let a string of second places put you off Adaay Of Scarlett in the Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Gimcrack Stakes (3:00) at York.

Hugo Palmer's colt has found one too good in all the big Group Twos this season - the Coventry Stakes, the July Stakes, and then the Richmond Stakes last time at the Goodwood Festival. He's done nothing wrong in defeat, though, and looks to have been found a great opportunity to set the record straight in a weaker renewal than the races he's been contesting.

While the first-time cheekpieces should give regular rider Oisin Murphy that vital extra gear, he will need to handle easier conditions than he's been used to, though his dam was effective with cut in the ground, which can only be a positive.

Aidan O'Brien's Marco Polo is an intriguing runner. The once-raced son of Night Of Thunder must be highly regarded at Ballydoyle to be pitched into this Group Two, so expect this half-brother to the useful Saber Strike to pose a big threat to his more-experienced rivals.

Local trainer Kevin Ryan has a great record in this race with four wins to his name, and his unbeaten colt Matteo could be overpriced in his pursuit of a hat-trick. This is tougher than the Beverley conditions race he won so gamely, but I can see him putting up a big performance all the same.

Dual Group One hero holds Lonsdale key

Caballo De Mar - a dual winner at the very highest level - can bounce back from a below-par run in the Gold Cup when he returns in the Group Two Weatherbys Lonsdale Cup Stakes (2:25).

George Scott's star was found to be suffering from heat stress after stopping quickly at the Royal meeting, but he should be ready to show his best over this extended two miles, with the rain-softened ground in his favour.

Ralph Beckett's Amiloc is unproven at this distance after unseating Hector Crouch at the start in the Goodwood Cup, but I expect this longer trip to bring the best out of him. He was such a good horse last year, including when winning the Group Two King Edward VII Stakes, and this could be his time to shine again.

Wathnan's Code can crack the opener

I'll be shouting for my boss Archie Watson's progressive three-year-old Exclusive Code in the opener at York, the Sky Bet Mile Handicap (1:50). He has the scope to defy a hefty rise for a recent win at the Goodwood Festival and has form on good to soft ground.

The son of Blue Point controlled the race from the front at Goodwood to repel the re-opposing Zennor Storm, who was certainly an eye-catching second. I'm not convinced he will cope as well with these conditions, however, so I hope to see Wathnan Racing's gelding come out on top again.

Zennor Storm's trainer William Haggas also runs Eklleem, who managed to get off the mark in good style at Ripon. He's a nice-looking sort whose performance up in North Yorkshire can be upgraded, but this looks much more demanding, while the draw hasn't been kind either.

Vintner looks the one to toast

Ralph Beckett's improving four-year-old Master Vintner ticks all the boxes in the mile and a half Assured Data Protection Handicap (4:10).

A winner on heavy ground at Goodwood last autumn, this son of Mastercraftsman sharpened up his act decisively in first-time blinkers at Thirsk earlier in the month and looks more than capable of defying a five-pound rise here.

Master Builder also heads to the Knavesmire on the back of a win, with his coming over course and distance in May, and he could easily have more to offer off this much higher mark, while Jane Chapple-Hyam's chestnut Primo Lara can't be discounted following his smooth stable debut at Ascot.