Alex Hammond answers the big Investec Derby questions
Saturday 4 June 2016 18:04, UK
Alex Hammond with her thoughts ahead of the Investec Derby Festival with tips in all the big races.
It's a classic weekend at Epsom, who do you fancy to win the Investec Derby on Saturday and what do you make of this year's race?
The Derby this year may be open, but it doesn't mean it's a weak race. There are a handful of colts in the line up that could be absolutely anything. At the time of writing we are unsure how the ground is likely to ride, but it's sure to be good at best after rain midweek and that's probably the most trainers can hope for.
US Army Ranger has been on the slide after the change in underfoot conditions, but he is the talking horse from Ballydoyle and it has been hard to ignore him for that reason alone. Aside from the chatter, he may have only just won the Chester Vase beating stable mate Port Douglas by a short head, but he wasn't disgraced and should have learned plenty for that run, which was only his second.
He has the right pedigree for this test being a son of Galileo out of an Irish Oaks winner. So, his price is drifting because of the rain, but on all evidence he shouldn't mind some ease in the ground and I don't think there will be any excuses on that score. That said, he doesn't really excite me and I won't be backing him.
I've backed Port Douglas each way because I'd kick myself if he runs into a place without me!
I mentioned Port Douglas and if you fancy US Army Ranger, you have to give this colt a chance of running well at almost three times the price. The 14/1 available with Sky Bet is the dangling carrot that tempts me to back him to finish in the three and I think you could do worse in an open race. He stays well and could make up into a Leger horse later in the season so don't be surprised to see him dictating the pace as a Ballydoyle third, fourth or even fifth string. He gave 4lbs to US Army Ranger at Chester and that puts him in here with a shout.
Another of the runners that has been the subject of plenty of chat is Andre Fabre's Cloth Of Stars. He takes the same route as the master trainer's Pour Moi and created a favourable impression at the Breakfast With The Stars morning.
Yet another horse that further muddies an already murky picture is Sir Michael Stoute's Ulysses, who needs to improve to win this, but has plenty going for him. Another son of the mighty Galileo, he is out of 2007 Oaks winner Light Shift, so is also bred for the job. He was impressive in winning his maiden, and while he needs to step up to make his mark on the race, he is with a trainer unlikely to be tilting at windmills.
Jim Bolger has been keen to give a good mention to his Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial winner Moonlight Magic too and the step up to a mile and half should suit this son of Cape Cross who has a fairly regal pedigree on the dam's side as she is a half sister to Sea The Stars and Galileo out of supermare Urban Sea.
The ante-post favourite is now Dante winner Wings Of Desire at 4/1 with Sky Bet. He's another colt that could be a superstar, but it has all happened quite fast as he didn't make his racecourse debut until April. I've backed Port Douglas each way because I'd kick myself if he runs into a place without me and I would like to see Ulysses find the necessary improvement to stamp his authority on the three-year-old colt's division.
He was impressive in winning his maiden, and while he needs to step up to make his mark on the race, he's with a trainer unlikely to be tilting at windmills.
There should be a classy line up of older horses over the Derby course and distance for the Investec Coronation Cup on Saturday, who wins this?
Well, Postponed is 4/6 favourite with Sky Bet for the race to continue his winning run which goes back to his victory in the King George last summer and takes in the Prix Foy in September (both for Luca Cumani), followed by two wins at Meydan (for new trainer Roger Varian) including the Sheema Classic on his last start. The price doesn't appeal again though, so I'll be looking elsewhere.
Can Aidan O'Brien's Found beat him? On her best form she certainly can as we saw when she took the scalp of Golden Horn in the Breeders' Cup Turf last October. However, she was beaten when sent off odds on favourite for the Tattersalls Gold Cup a couple of weeks ago and will need to bounce back from that. She has had a busy few weeks, so for me it's another of the female's that I'll be siding with.
Simple Verse reappeared with a promising run in the Jockey Club Stakes at Newmarket, finishing second having to give weight to all of her rivals. I'd expect her to improve for that run and she is a class act winning the Leger and the Champion Fillies and Mares Stakes at Ascot in October. Female or otherwise, she is one of the best middle distance horses around and it's great to see her connections keep her in training as a four-year-old when it would have been an easier option to retire her to the paddocks after her Classic winning campaign last season. I'm happy enough to back her at the 7/2 available with Sky Bet and hope she can beat the hot favourite with her weight allowance.
Female or otherwise, she is one of the best middle distance horses around and it's great to see her connections keep her in training as a four-year-old when it would have been an easier option to retire her to the paddocks.
The Epsom Dash is a real spectacle and takes place over the fastest five furlongs in the world. The draw will play a big part, but who are you hoping will be allotted a handy berth on Saturday?
A cavalry charge in the true sense of the word and a real lottery. I'm not mad keen on betting in these types of races, but you are guaranteed a thrill if you are getting involved.
Duke Of Firenze won this in 2013 for Sir Michael Stoute and is back for more at a track he acts well over. He seems to be enjoying life with David Griffiths who took over his training this season having bought him for just 16,000 guineas, he won a good handicap at York for him last time out and carries a penalty for that win.
Last year's winner Desert Law is back for more and is one of two in the race for Paul Midgley who does well with his sprinters and also has last year's runner up Monsieur Joe amongst the entries. Those horses should be involved again. Harry Hurricane is also penalised for a York handicap win last time out.
Roger Varian's Maljaa looks a potential fly in the ointment for the seasoned sprinters. He is having just his 11th start in this race and could progress out of handicaps. He returned this season with a good effort at Chester (despite getting a bump turning into the home straight), has plenty of speed and given a decent draw he could run a big race. He's a 10/1 shot with Sky Bet.
There are some equally competitive handicaps over the two days racing on the Downs, can you highlight one horse that you hope can win one of them please?
The ground on Wednesday afternoon was changed to soft, good to soft in places so it is unlikely to suit fast ground horses even if it's dries considerably before Friday/Saturday. I refuse to give up on What About Carlo who is declared to run in Friday's 10 furlong handicap at 1435. Conditions will suit Eve Johnson Houghton's gelding perfectly and if he can jump off on terms he should run a big race; although a word of caution, the yard are without a winner for a while.
There's no doubt he has work to do to beat Dark Red, who has beaten him the last twice, but he loves Epsom and will pop up at some point and I'll be gutted if it's without me, I do think I could be following him off a cliff though!
I'll also be watching with interest to see how Dutch Uncle gets on when dropped back to a mile in the 1545 on Friday for in form trainer Ed Dunlop.
On Friday the fillies line up in the Investec Oaks, the picture has looked less clear as race day approaches, who do you think will come out on top?
Nine fillies are declared for the Oaks with Aidan O'Brien's 1000 Guineas winner Minding heading the betting. There's no doubt she is the form horse in the race and on all known evidence she should take all the beating. She was beaten by Jet Setting in the Irish 1000 Guineas where a bang to the head in the stalls was given as a possible excuse. Whether that affected her greatly or not is almost irrelevant because her form is the strongest in Friday's line up and at her best the rest will struggle to beat her. Her price isn't really attractive though and I won't be backing her.
Skiffle has been added to the field at a cost of £30,000 and she comes here having handled the cambers of Goodwood by winning the Height Of Fashion Stakes. She is pretty inexperienced, but should improve further for the step up to 12 furlongs. I can see why Charlie Appleby was keen for Sheikh Mohammed to add her to the field and she should run well.
The horse I'll be having a little fun each way flutter on given the rain that has fallen, is Harlequeen, who is trained by Mick Channon. She finished 4th in the Musidora at York behind So Mi Dar, not beaten far, and if she settles a bit better could finish in the first three at a decent price (currently 20/1 with Sky Bet). I don't think she'll be going back to Channon's as a Classic winner, but neither so I think she's a no-hoper, she should stay 12 furlongs and will handle the ground if it's on the soft side.
