Cheltenham Festival 2019: Dos and Don'ts to assure Festival success
Tuesday 12 March 2019 11:04, UK
Punters are set to do battle with bookmakers once again at the Cheltenham Festival. Want to beat them? Here, Lewis Jones offers his advice for a successful festival.
Do... Respect previous Cheltenham Festival form
Some horses thrive in certain conditions and some do not. This is especially relevant for the Festival, where previous form from previous meetings comes to fore time and time again. Cheltenham is a unique track, which suits a certain type of horse - one that usually travels, jumps and also stays the trip. That's why it's regarded as a true test of a racehorse.
If you are weighing up a couple of horses that look to have a fine chance, then go with the horse that has done it before at the Festival - it's an edge that pays to follow.
Don't... Back heroes of yesteryear older than 11 years old
Age usually does not matter in life - but there are three occasions when it does. Cheese, wine and the Cheltenham Festival.
All 57 horses to have run in Championship races since 1997 that were aged 11 over over have been beaten, these include legends like Big Buck's, Kauto Star, Denman and Cue Card.
A perfect example of horses with veteran status being overbet is Faugheen in the Stayers Hurdle on the Thursday - he's second favourite at 7/2.
It's a ridiculous price.
The 11-year-old is a two-time Festival winner but his glory days are behind him - as shown by his lacklustre run in the Champion Hurdle last season. That has not stopped the wave of optimism around his chances as punters get all misty eyed at the thought of him producing a fairytale. Newsflash, fairytales do not exist. Women cannot kiss frogs to turn them into a prince and Faugheen cannot win the Stayers Hurdle.
Do... Take advantage of all the free bets, offers and enhanced odds
Punters around this time of the year have never had it so good.
With such competitiveness for your custom, the offers being put on the table by bookmakers for the Festival are one to sit up and notice.
For example, Sky Bet are offering money back for all losing bets up to £20 to the first race on each day of the Festival.
Do... Have a go at the Placepot
Who likes big returns from small stakes? Who does not more like.
The Placepot can be a complex bet to understand - but it does not need to be. To put simply, you have to pick a horse to be placed in the first six races. Every six selections you pick equate to one line. If you want to you can do a single line for your placepot, by picking just one horse in each race, is fine but to nail that at Cheltenham when the field numbers are high is difficult. You can add more than one selection in each race but your stake size will go up as you will be increasing your lines. If you picked 2 x 2 x 1 x 1 x 3 x 2, that equals 24 bets which is then divided by the amount you wish to stake.
If your selections place in each race, then go collect and the dividends are usually bulky.
Do... Back jockey Davy Russell in the handicaps
Ruby Walsh usually is the "punters pal" at Cheltenham when it comes to the Irish but Davy Russell is operating at a far more potent strike-rate around a track which he rides brilliantly. In the last five Cheltenham Festivals, Walsh has only ridden one winner and one place from 16 rides in handicaps while Russell is operating at a 33 per cent strike rate, winning seven of his last 21 rides with a win and place strike rate of 61 per cent. Those numbers are frightening and you would have made £84 profit from £1 stakes backing all his runners during that period.
With his boss Gordon Elliot looking strong once again, backing Russell blind could be a profitable angle to follow.
Do... Back Paul Nicholls' runners in the Fred Winter Handicap
Paul Nicholls has become the master of this handicap on the Wednesday for four-year-old juvenile hurdlers in recent years. He has won three of the last eight renewals but intriguingly he has manage to saddle seven horses to place (including four seconds) from his last 15 runners. The noises surrounding Friend Or Foe chances this year have been strong following his impressive win at Taunton.
Don't… Lose your discipline
No one likes a chaser. No one likes a mug.
Discipline is absolutely key to making the Festival a hopefully profitable and enjoyable one. Four days of punting is a slog and emotions will run high and low on the Cheltenham rollercoaster. Stick to your plan, only bet what you can afford to lose and never go chasing after suffering a bad beat.
With all the emotion surging around, it's easy to forget to enjoy the spectacle. It's another year before it all starts again - remember to enjoy the ride.
