How to find a Grand National winner? Trends, tactics, stats analysed
Saturday 6 April 2019 16:49, UK
Need help finding the Grand National winner? Lewis Jones points you in the right direction, identifying key components to consider when making your pick.
When you back the winner of the Grand National, it is a moment to remember - one to tell the grandchildren about.
Every punter has their own way of going about the process. Some like to stick a pin in the racecard at random or purely focus on the names of the horses. Others prefer more logical methods such as in-depth form study or statistical-based analysis.
When the National comes around, either tactic is good in our eyes but preparation always trumps luck and despite many giving this race the "it's a lottery" treatment, the puzzle can be solved.
Let's try and solve it then…
Pace is key….
Looking at recent winners of the race, you need a horse that does two things: can stay the distance - yes, it's an obvious one - but speed is in fact more crucial despite the four-mile marathon nature of the trip.
It can be very tough for a horse to make up ground in a Grand National from the back of the field due to the number of runners and the course configuration, therefore being able to jump well on the front end is a key trait to possess.
Since 1999, horses racing prominently have a 17 per cent win and place strike rate, this compares favourably to hold-up horses, who pull in just an eight per cent win and place strike rate.
Class prevailing….
As with all handicaps, horses are given their numbers by the weight they carry in accordance with their official rating. Therefore, No 1 will carry top weight and No 40 bottom weight. Over the years, this is a race that has developed into a contest which favours the classier types. As the prize money has increased, trainers and owners are deciding to target a better standard of horse towards this great prize.
That has resulted in lower-ranked horses struggling despite carrying less weight. Since 1999, only two horses between numbers 28 and 40 have won from 208 runners. My advice would be make this into a 27-runner race and start your way up from there.
Horses for courses....
Six of the last 10 winners of this glorious race had come into Aintree having already run at this meeting in the past.
Previous Aintree experience over these fences, too, is a big plus. Horses regularly come back and deliver their best performances of the season in this race. Over the years the likes of State Of Play, Cappa Bleu, Oscar Time and Saint Are all finished in the first four in two different Grand Nationals. Keep that in mind.
Each-way mugs….
OK, this one will not theoretically help you locate the winner but it will increase your enjoyment, trust me.
This is controversial. But do not back each-way in the Grand National.
In a helter-skelter race like the Aintree spectacular, having two or three horses running for you is certainly the way to go. Instead of backing each-way, which is two bets per selection, splitting your entire layout of stake on just the win aspect of horses' chances is my recommendation.
Not only will you be in line for a big return if one of your selections runs out the victor, but it gives you more eggs in the basket, which can make for a more enjoyable Grand National punting experience. If you are having a swing at one over 50/1 then perhaps take the each-way angle but anything shorter is a sure-fire way to put the bookies in front.
Of course, your selection may finish in the places and you miss out on the each-way money, but the returns from an each-way bet are nowhere near fair enough to make it a worthwhile investment. Go for the win!
Conclusion....
Tiger Roll is a great place to start as he does fit most of the criteria. However, his price is simply ridiculous when you consider how tough it is to defend a Grand National crown. He can be swerved. My advice would be back three - in the win market, not each-way.
ROCK THE KASBAH (Sky Bet Odds 20/1) is a reliable jumper with a touch of class, STEP BACK (Sky Bet Odds 33/1) is a dangerous horse to underestimate if he takes to the fences and although LAKE VIEW LAD (Sky Bet Odds 16/1) has never raced at Aintree, he looks the type to flourish on this stage.
