Breeders' Cup Classic: Peter Fornatale's big-race guide for Del Mar's Saturday showpiece
What a race we have in store! Sovereignty, last year's winner Sierra Leone, Fierceness and Forever Young are all set to line up for the Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic at Del Mar on Saturday night - live on Sky Sports Racing!
Tuesday 28 October 2025 16:17, UK
This Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic at 10.25pm on Saturday, live on Sky Sports Racing, is shaping up to an all-timer.
We've got the one-two-three from last year's Classic, the one-two-three from this year's Kentucky Derby, and to give you an idea of just how deep this field is, you're going to have double-digit odds on a horse that's won two Grade 1s this season.
It's fascinating any way you choose to view it. Let's not delay any further - it's time to dive in horse by horse.
1) Fierceness
John Velazquez | Todd Pletcher
This up-and-down performer looks decidedly "up" heading into this year's Classic over a course and distance we know he loves. He showed a new dimension last time in that he not only the overcame trouble early but he also settled nicely, switching off and listening to his rider before producing that devastating move.
Chief among his positive attributes is that he looks the best speed in this spot by some way. The only downside is that he is a horse who has had some high-profile "non-going days" and we can't be sure he's over that quirk. However, at the current prices of north of 6-1, you are getting compensated for that risk. His rail draw is a bit comical after the trouble he had from the same spot in the Pacific Classic, but I don't think it will come into play this time.
2) Baeza
Hector Berrios | John Shirreffs
To paraphrase Miles Davis, timing isn't everything, it's the only thing. Consider Baeza: had he been foaled in any of the last few years, I truly believe he might have won at least one Triple Crown contest. As it is, he can lay claim to being no better than the third-best horse of his generation behind Sovereignty and Journalism. He had his breakthrough performance last time in the Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby, a race those top two skipped.
Whether you want to look at time figures, head-to-head matchups, or collateral form, it's exceedingly hard to put him above those runners. Improvement for horses isn't lateral - it could be he has more room for growth than those two, and that's what he'll need to have happen to finish ahead of them and the rest of these. Between that possibility and the vicissitudes of the trips, he's still interesting to me to be somewhere if the odds go north of 20-1
3) Nevada Beach
Mike Smith | Bob Baffert
Very appropriate to have Bob Baffert, such a dominant figure in USA racing over the past several decades, with Classic involvement. Nevada Beach didn't debut until April of his three-year-old year and he immediately has success, scoring with a 90 Beyer speed figure. He went right into listed stakes company where he was odds-on and ran well twice, with a second in the Affirmed and a win in the Los Alamitos Derby.
Following a short layoff, it was time for Baffert to figure out what he really had with this one, and he tried him at Grade 1 level in the Goodwood. He acquitted himself nicely, running a career best 101 figure and beating some decent rivals in the form of Full Serrano and stablemate Privman. Of course, this is by order of magnitude a more difficult assignment and despite the promise he's flashed, I'm not seeing anything to suggest he can tangle with the best of these.
4) Contrary Thinking
Florent Geroux | Chad Brown
Sierra Leone's "emotional support rabbit," according to Fierceness's owner Mike Repole. I do not understand all the hue and cry about the use of pacemakers, a tactical invention that dates back centuries. Of course, in recent seasons we've seen massive upsets in European races by pacemakers who never stopped.
That will not happen with Contrary Thinking, a horse who truly has no chance. And I don't think his presence really hurts Fierceness's chances much either as we've seen him both stalk and pounce and even settle and finish.
5) Forever Young
Ryusei Sakai | Yoshito Yashagi
He ran a tremendous race in the Classic last year, making a middle move into the fast pace set by Fierceness and while you can't really rate him above Fierceness there, given the early speed dynamics, it has been plausibly argued by Randy Moss and others that you can rate him the equal of the winner, Sierra Leone. I was in awe of his run in the Saudi Cup. I thought he looked hopelessly beaten and whatever you want to say about McDonald's ride on Romantic Warrior, Forever Young's late burst of speed was spine-tingling.
Regular readers and viewers will know I'm not a big proponent of the "bounce" theory in racing but in Dubai it simply looked like he reacted to the strong effort. And he wasn't exactly disgraced, still checking in third in a race worth $12 million US dollars. He's got back to winning ways since, albeit in an easier spot than where he prepped last year. The depth of this field is so strong I can only consider him a peripheral contender for the win, but another huge race would be no surprise at all for this impressive world traveler.
6) Sovereignty
Junior Alvarado | Bill Mott
The Kentucky Derby and Belmont winner has had an amazing season, and many people, including his trainer, believe he'd have won the Triple Crown had he contested the Preakness. Since then, he's won two more races, including an absolute romp in the Travers where he recorded a whopping 115 Beyer Speed Figure - and he was under wraps late! A lot has been made of how he'll handle the short stretch at Del Mar and the pace situation in the Classic, but it's important to note that he's not the deep, one-run closer he might have looked like in the Derby.
He has tactical speed and he should be able to put it to good use. The layoff might be a question for some but I trust Bill Mott implicitly to be ready to have his charge fire a big shot. After all, part of the reason they skipped the Preakness was to have a fresh horse for the autumn, and there's simply no trainer better than Bill Mott when it comes to picking a target and hitting the bullseye.
7) Sierra Leone
Flavien Prat | Chad Brown
Last year's winner comes here as the solid second choice in the market as of this writing, but I think he could end up third in the market by the off. The reason harkens back to the oldest, truest American racing cliché about pace making the race. Last year, the pace was supersonic, and Sierra Leone was flattered by how the flow unfolded (I rate Fierceness above him on ability in that race). This year, with comparatively little apparent pace signed on, Sierra looks likely to be against the flow of things.
Still, Sierra Leone has an important weapon that shouldn't be underestimated - elite late pace. And there's a world in which Sovereignty, as the heavy favourite he'll be, is ridden more aggressively to keep pace with Fierceness and things actually do set up well for the deeper closers (see also: Journalism). As for the last run, it can be excused. Sierra ended up far out of position after having to avoid a fallen Irad Ortiz Jr. I think he'll put forth a representative effort and he should be in the frame if he does.
8) Mindframe
Irad Ortiz, Jr. | Todd Pletcher
What if I told you there was a horse who won what looked on paper like the one of the saltiest Grade 1s of the season (the Churchill Downs), then came back to win the historic Stephen Foster (also at G1 level) and yet you could back him at double-digit odds for the Classic? Because that, dear readers, is exactly what we have in Mindframe. Granted, I'm not even saying that's the wrong price. On figures and form, that's probably what he should be given the depth of this field and the way it shapes up on paper. When last seen in the afternoon on a race course, Mindframe lost his rider. He hasn't really raced since that Foster triumph in June, and he had a very easy trip there.
His more heralded stablemate looks the one to be pace advantaged here. He doesn't exactly give the impression the 10 furlongs will bring him forward, but having said that, he'd have won at the distance in just his third career start had he not thrown the race away due to greenness. He's a fascinating X-Factor.
9) Journalism
Jose Ortiz | Michael McCarthy
Sovereignty is the best American three-year-old; I don't think there's any doubt in that. But Journalism is my favourite of the bunch. I love that he contested all three legs in the Triple Crown and in an average year, heck, even a slightly above average year, he'd have won the Triple Crown. Sadly for him and his fans, he was born the same year as Sovereignty. Since the exertions of the Triple Crown, he won a nail-biter in the Haskell (it didn't look like great form but it's worked out OK) and he looked a bit overmatched in the Pacific Classic against Fierceness, despite being backed as defeat was out of the question.
Where does he go from here? He looks a little slow on paper. And the exact scenario he likely needs will also likely suit Sierra Leone. I'm hoping he's forgotten in the wagering and I can take an each-way flyer and/or use for US exotics but I'll admit he's more of a "heart" horse than a "head" horse at this point.
10) Antiquarian
Luis Saez | Todd Pletcher
The other-other Todd Pletcher runner had a real coming out party in the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup where won well with a 108 Beyer Speed Figure, a career best. But the race is hard to take at face value. Mindframe unseated his rider early on and that caused the favourite, Sierra Leone, to be woefully out of position.
Antiquarian "held off" the late charge of Sierra Leone with a healthy dose of help from the racing gods in my view. His previous run was also nice on the clock, a 104 Beyer, but he was life and death to hold off Phileas Fogg, a solid Grade 3 type, but no one's idea of a Classic contender. I will listen to the case that Antiquarian is an improving late-season four-year-old whom the figures give a chance, but ultimately, I am not really buying into it.
Peter Fornatale's verdict:
I think #5 Forever Young is too big at 8-1 and I'll side with him. Sovereignty will be a part of all my USA-style exotic plays and is the most likely winner. I just think the odds of 6-4 are really just the price in such a salty group. Huge runs from Fierceness and Sierra Leone would be no surprise and I'll use them in exactas as well.
