Lydia Hislop's Road To Cheltenham

Lydia Hislop rounds up the latest action with a firm focus on the Cheltenham Festival in March and decides it's time for a Champion Hurdle bet.

There were three performances of particular note during the past seven days, all of them on this side of the Irish Sea for once. The New One cemented his position as best of British for the Champion Hurdle, Kings Palace thrilled with his jumping at Cheltenham and Peace And Co pulverised a field of fellow juveniles in a manner that more than withstood scrutiny.

Stan James Champion Hurdle

The most convincing performance of the week came from The New One, who brushed aside the challenge of young hopeful, Vaniteux, in Cheltenham’s International (Bula) Hurdle despite conceding 8lb and in a steadily-run race unlikely to have suited the winner.

Sam Twiston-Davies rode him with palpable confidence, angling him right off the home turn to eyeball Vaniteux, who was then readily left behind up the hill. This was The New One’s best effort, replete with better-straighter jumping, since his hampered third in last season’s Champion Hurdle.

Beforehand, his rider had suggested they would skip the Christmas Hurdle and, afterwards, his father Nigel was unusually reticent about naming a target, commenting that he “isn’t scared of taking on” ante-post favourite Faugheen but that Kempton comes “quick enough” after Cheltenham.

Although the horse ran in both races last season, he has additionally taken in the new Haydock race this term. How he travelled on Saturday was impressive - as you can see by watching the replay - compared both to last year’s win in the same race and how he got outpaced (complicated by being hampered by the fall of Our Conor) on the big day last year.

However, the fact remains that titleholder Jezki is still 6/1 in many a place and has far less to prove than either horse ahead of him in the Champion Hurdle ante-post market. He also made a perfectly good start to his season at a track and in a type of race that suits him far less than the big one.

Given he is due to run in the next fortnight, I wouldn’t be surprised if his price were to shorten ahead of that Leopardstown date, so let’s take the 6/1. I’m not going to tell you how to strike the bet because that’s your business, but if you do incorporate each-way into your strategy then consider doing that here.

As for Vaniteux, plan B will be triggered which might well entail Newbury’s Betfair Hurdle and the County at the Cheltenham Festival and will definitely be succeeded by an Arkle campaign for the following 2015/16 season.

Ladbrokes World Hurdle

The Relkeel Hurdle rather fell apart behind Rock On Ruby last Saturday, but there was no mistaking the nine-year-old’s enduring verve for the discipline. He had also acquitted himself with credit on his seasonal debut when third in the Elite at Wincanton.

Last term’s evidence would suggest he’s not going to make it as a top-class chaser and that connections would be better served keeping to the smaller obstacles, at least while age hasn’t withered his class.

Trainer Harry Fry stressed that he and jockey Noel Fehily believe two-and-a-half miles suit the horse best and cited the course-and-distance event on New Year’s Day, won last time by Annie Power, as the likely next target.

There was less immediate appetite for the World than for the Aintree Hurdle, in which Rock On Ruby narrowly failed to beat The New One last season. However, given there are four weeks between Cheltenham and the Grand National meeting in 2015, there seems little reason not to have a crack at both with a horse who will soon be entering the mini-veteran stage.

The prevailing 25/1 is too dismissive of the World Hurdle chances of a classy horse, totally unexposed at the trip – especially given the muted return of the titleholder and current absence of urgent pretenders.

The latest report on More of That, presaged by his sporting of a first-time tongue-tie when disappointing last month, is that he is to have a breathing operation. That means the soonest we are likely to see him is the Cleeve at the end of January, if not in the World Hurdle itself.

As a fan of the horse – I backed him again at 4/1, minutes after his March success – I am not soothed by a development already flagged as likely in this column two weeks ago. The worry remains: if a tongue-tie was discussed on a few occasions last season, as trainer Jonjo O’Neill said it was, why wasn’t the operation done over the summer without the glare of publicity? If you’ve backed him already, too, our best hope is O’Neill’s proven ability to peak his horses at the Festival.

Warren Greatrex has confirmed that Cole Harden misses Leopardstown this Christmas due to some birch getting into his knee as a result of hitting a hurdle during his last run. He could meet Rock On Ruby on New Year’s Day, provided the ground is testing enough to offset the drop in trip.  

Zarkandar, whose stamina for three miles has been proven since last spring (which means he could be ridden more positively in a second World Hurdle attempt), has been nibbled at in a couple of places ahead of facing a poor turnout for this Saturday’s Long Walk Hurdle.

OLBG David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdles

It was very sad to hear about the death of Cockney Sparrow, fifth in this race last term but best celebrated for her career-topping success in the Scottish Champion Hurdle on her next start. John Quinn, her trainer, reported that she contracted colic last week and “went downhill very rapidly”. He described her as “the best mare I’ve trained”.

Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup

There were contradictory vibes last week about Sir Des Champs, the 2013 Gold Cup runner-up, which ultimately concluded with dispiriting news.

The horse had been noted as uneasy in the ante-post betting when Bryan Cooper, retained rider for owners Gigginstown Stud, was quoted tentatively weighing up his Gold Cup options in last Friday’s Racing Post.

“I don’t know when [Sir Des Champs] will be out, but he’s tipping away and it would be great if he could come back,” Cooper said. “If he comes back to anything like his form from last year, he’s the one you would stick with.”

However, in the following day’s Post, trainer Willie Mullins reported: “Having [Sir Des Champs] ready for a second tilt at the Cheltenham Gold Cup is going to be very difficult. Unfortunately he's met with a separate setback to the one that has kept him off the track since he finished fourth in the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown last Christmas.”

If Sir Des Champs fails to make his target, that would appear to leave Cooper choosing between First Lieutenant (about whom he said “there were a couple of little problems with him after Down Royal, but that’s fixed now”) and Road To Riches (who won the Down Royal Champion Chase in the hands of Paul Carberry). Both horses are bound for the Lexus Chase over Christmas.

Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase

I hate to mention the S words but, given this column’s remit is to look ahead to the Cheltenham Festival and (when the mood takes me) recommend some ante-post positions, updates on Sprinter Sacre are just, well, wholly relevant.

At least this time it derives from within one correspondent’s perceived accuracy parameter: namely, a ten-mile radius of Seven Barrows stables. Following a schooling session and exercise the following morning, Nicky Henderson gave an upbeat report on Saturday. “There are reasons to be cautiously optimistic following the past 48 hours,” he said.

Henderson’s current plan is a racecourse gallop, preferably including a few fences, before aiming the horse at Ascot’s Sodexho Clarence House Chase over 2m1f in January.

While I very much take the point that racecourse gallops are not helpful in the quest for top horses to actually meet each other in races prior to Cheltenham, taking this individual case on its merits, I can’t get worked up about it.

However – and avert your eyes now if you dislike fans using their own powers of reason about things that are said by racing professionals – if it were to be very soft ground at Ascot in January, there must be a chance that Sprinter Sacre will make his seasonal debut in the Queen Mother Champion Chase.

Novice chasers

You couldn’t have asked for a more impressive display from Kings Palace last Friday. He jumped with enthusiastic but concentrated accuracy, clearly measuring his fences and revelling in his own athleticism. This was an even more impressive beating of Sausalito Sunrise than last month, even before you take the 8lb worse terms into account and it's well worth watching again.

He was rightly promoted to clear ante-post favourite for the RSA Chase and whether you like that price depends on your interpretation of what happened in the Albert Bartlett last season. Back then he arrived a slick-jumping novice hurdler but ended by falling at the last, already beaten when tired in fifth.

The ayes to the right will say, with good reason, that Kings Palace has had a breathing operation since then and his chasing technique has the hallmark of rarely seen star quality.

The noes to the left will say his forward-going style, although placing more emphasis on his excellent jumping, will be incomparably more difficult to pull off at the Festival where the fields are larger, the pace is much quicker and the serious opposition more numerous.

While I am not in any way detracting from this exciting prospect, my respect for Festival form and the white heat of the RSA Chase mean I’m in the latter camp – especially at the current 6/1. Of course, I could just be burned and unforgiving after having fancied him for the Albert Bartlett last term…

Don’t be surprised if, for the above reasons, Philip Hobbs decides to pursue the RSA option with Sausalito Sunrise, although this sound-jumping horse will probably also get an entry in the 4-mile NH Chase. The latter event is likely to be the target of stablemate and last Friday’s third, Return Spring, who stuck to his task well and loves Cheltenham.

Hobbs also has Champagne West in the Festival mix and this horse has coped well with two unconventional tasks so far: a much depleted jumping test due to low sun last month and being left in front a long way out last Saturday after a disobliging Little Jon ran out at the fourth last (having also initially planted himself at the start).

Richard Johnson felt that Champagne West didn’t jump as well as before due to the gluey ground but was delighted with how much a keen-going horse has grown up. This may mean the horse will have more stamina reserves for the RSA, his connections’ given target, than he did when fourth in last year’s slightly shorter Albert Bartlett.

It will be interesting to see whether he gets an entry for the two-and-a-half mile JLT Chase as well. In the meantime, the plan is the 2m5f Grade Two Dipper Chase over Saturday’s course and distance on New Year’s Day.

This effort should be rated better than the bare form as he’d be better with a longer lead in a more truly run race and the runner-up is no slouch. In fact, Un Ace is likely to do a lot better himself on a sounder surface, so don’t dismiss him completely. He was a more-than-respectable eighth on only his second hurdles start behind Vautour in last year’s Supreme.

Yet there seemed little to worry Vautour fans in the two-mile novice division last week. Melodic Rendezvous made a laboured start to his chasing career, beating Boondooma by a hard-fought half-length.

I suspect the runner-up, bred to be a chaser, was a slightly underestimated opponent but the winning margin couldn’t be explained away by any jumping errors. Melodic Rendezvous was safe, if not slick, and may benefit from a step up in trip to 2m4f. However, he has lacked sparkle in both starts this term.

Virak has taken well to his return to fences and jumped with low accuracy to take a three-mile Grade Two at Doncaster last Saturday. He briefly flirted with chasing last term, running once over two miles at Warwick before carrying top-weight to a respectable sixth in the Martin Pipe Hurdle at the Festival.

With Killala Quay failing to cut it over the larger obstacles so far, here Virak probably had relatively little to beat and the race turned into more of a stamina (and less of a jumping) test, with eight flights omitted due to low sun. The way he moves suggests some cut might always be preferable.

Novice hurdlers

No More Heroes ultimately beat Shaneshill with a degree of authority in the Grade Two Navan Novice Hurdle last Sunday. He was a tad better positioned than the runner-up, who showed more speed to lead narrowly at the second last, and responded well to a relatively confident Barry Geraghty, who waited until after the last to ask for his mount’s full effort.

Geraghty said the winner could have done with a stronger pace and guessed at a few hurdles, though the horse also looked clever when getting one wrong. The winning rider also reportedly said No More Heroes would always prefer soft ground, but that wouldn’t be obvious from his action.

Winning trainer Gordon Elliott pinpointed the Albert Bartlett as the Festival target, for which his horse is now favourite. Ruby Walsh, who rode Shaneshill, felt his horse didn’t get the rub of the green and would like a rematch.

“I would probably have made more use of him if I could ride that race again,” he said in his Racing UK column. “We missed the third last and I had to get after him sooner than I wanted. Another day on better ground will suit. I don’t like getting beat, but they are two very exciting horses and I wouldn’t mind another crack at the winner.”

Cheltenham also produced a serious Albert Bartlett competitor. As suspected when he got outspeeded in a steadily run event there in November, Blaklion benefitted from both a step up in trip and getting a lead for longer when beating Anteros by 11 lengths.

There was a mixed reaction to the performance among bookmakers and analysts but the remaining 12/1 looks a fair price about a horse proven on the track, versatile of ground and whose Festival target is known.

Two horses whose abilities are underestimated by current ante-post prices are Seedling (33/1 Supreme) and Zeroeshadesofgrey (25/1 Albert Bartlett), no doubt due to their relatively unfeted trainers.

The former did well to reel in useful front-runner, Some Plan, at Cheltenham while carrying a double penalty. He needs to find another 10lb or so to get involved but he is going the right way and is beautifully straightforward.

The latter smashed another small field – not to mention a few hurdles – also carrying a double penalty to victory at Doncaster. However, it might be telling that he managed only a distant 15th in last year’s Festival bumper on his only Cheltenham start and on the fastest ground he has yet encountered.

Juvenile hurdlers

Some strong claims were laid down in this division in the past seven days, none more convincing than that of Peace And Co, who thumped dual prior winner Starchitect by 19 lengths in the Grade Two Summit Juvenile Hurdle at Doncaster last Saturday.

He jumped well and got the trip thoroughly, posting a time that bore close analysis when compared (sectionally and overall) with the two course-and-distance handicap hurdles on the same card.

From TV pictures, he looks a mature, well-grown juvenile – corroborated by Henderson’s pre-race description of “big and strapping”. Quotes of 9/2 are understandable, even though Kalkir had set a good standard in Ireland.

A couple of hours earlier, Henderson had saddled Hargam to show improved form in defeating Karezak in a good battle – the pair of them humbling Stars Over The Sea in the process – at Cheltenham. The time was fair, too.

Hargam was receiving 3lb from the winner and had the stands rail to help, but he may well progress further (as advertised by connections) for a sounder surface, given he is by that fast-ground influence, Sinndar.

Karezak surely improved for the first-time visor, which enabled him to travel better. Although he battles and stays, he does have his quirks as hanging left from the last didn’t help his cause. He might have done better with a closer rival to galvanise him – which is exactly why Tony McCoy allowed Hargam to go to his right, albeit his mount reportedly also got lonely on the run-in.

Karezak still shapes like the ideal type for the Finale at Chepstow over Christmas. Hargam is due to return to Cheltenham at the end of January, but might have to wait until the Festival for his preferred ground.

Don’t forget the very promising effort from Karezak’s stablemate, Chatez, earlier last week at Warwick. He jumped well and won comfortably, carrying a penalty. Trainer Alan King plans to run him at Kempton and, after a break, at Sandown in February. Aintree, rather than Cheltenham, remains his ultimate declared aim for this season.

Ante-post betting portfolio to date:

Douvan: Supreme Novices’ Hurdle – already advised at 12/1 with Skybet

Saphir Du Rheu: JLT Novices’ Chase – already advised at 14/1 with Paddy Power

Jezki: Stan James Champion Hurdle – back now, widely available at 6/1 (preferably each way)