SDS: Just Champion
Sunday 17 April 2016 16:02, UK
The Flat Jockey Championship covers wins from Qipco 2000 Guineas Day at Newmarket on Saturday April 30 to Qipco British Champions Day at Ascot on Saturday October 15 and that's a long time to tie up funds about a 6/4 shot.
History, though, suggests that it may not be such a bad thing to do as there have been many multiple winners of the title. We all know about the exploits of Sir Anthony McCoy over the sticks but there have been plenty of serial winners on the Flat even if none can match his records.
Richard Hughes won three titles between 2012 and 2014, Paul Hanagan the two before that and Ryan Moore the two before that as well as in 2006 with only the thrilling tie between Jamie Spencer and Seb Sanders interrupting his sequence in a season where he missed three months with injury.
Repeat winners are not a recent phenomenon and there have only been a handful of occasions when a jockey winning the title for the first time has not gone on to retain his crown the following season.
Injury can, of course, strike at any time and Moore - the 2/1 second favourite - missed a large chunk of the last campaign too and only finished 13th with 62 winners, some 70 behind De Sousa.
There are few better jockeys around than Moore and he will have the better ammunition of the pair but he has significant other calls upon his time, not least in Ireland, while the last two seasons have seen him undertake a globetrotting existence in the autumn.
It is highly questionable how much another title would mean to Moore but the hardworking Brazilian will surely be keen to add another title to remind everyone of the talent that landed him the job with Godolphin.
That may not have worked out but he will still be an integral part of their broader team through his association with Mark Johnston who provided him with 41 winners in 2015 and looks set to be a leading source throughout 2016.
De Sousa, who also ran Hanagan close in 2011, picked up relatively long suspensions in 2013 and 2014 under the totting-up procedures for whip offences and that was again an issue last season but he kept his nose clean on the run-in and clearly took the lessons on board.
Moore aside, there are few obvious challengers as odds of 9/1 bar the pair suggest.
Andrea Atzeni is third in the betting and has the backing of Roger Varian but it's doubtful as to whether the Newmarket handler has sufficient numbers to make the difference.
Jim Crowley has joined agent Tony Hind for this season and Hind has guided both Moore and Hughes to titles so a case can be made for the former jump jockey who should be willing to head anywhere whereas the likes of William Buick, James Doyle and Paul Hanagan will have their schedules dictated by their retainers.
De Sousa was a 66/1 chance this time last year so it is possible for someone to come out of the woodwork and there are a couple of potential candidates at fancy prices.
Hughes' title bids were built on the backing of Richard Hannon's stable and the yard is as strong as ever. It remains to be seen who gets the lion's share of the rides but the support certainly counted for plenty in Tom Marquand's apprentice title bid.
He's a 100/1 chance to land the senior title but the rides from the Herridge House handler tend to be divvied out fairly evenly with, in 2015, Sean Levey getting 277, Pat Dobbs 253 and Hughes 185 prior to his retirement.
At half the odds of Marquand Graham Lee is not without merit if he could build some momentum.
He finished 52 winners behind De Sousa last season (as did Crowley) despite having more rides and he didn't enjoy the same quality of opportunity or the backing of a powerful stable.
Jedd O'Keeffe provided more winners for Lee than any other trainer last season from around half the number of opportunities granted to the jockey by Kevin Ryan who was his biggest supporter numerically with 96 rides and there has been no indication that that is about to change in 2016.
Lee has good strike rates for a number of Newmarket trainers but they are relatively infrequent visitors to his stamping ground.
Hanagan and De Sousa have both proved that being the main man in the north of England can be a great asset in pursuit of the title but they had the backing of Richard Fahey and Johnston while Lee, at this stage, can't call on the same support which will make it very hard indeed to bridge the gap and, unfortunately, there is no each-way betting on this market.
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2pts Silvestre de Sousa to win the Stobart Champion Flat Jockeys' Championship