Trials & Tribulations: The Oaks

Nic Doggett reviews all of the trials ahead of the Investec Oaks at Epsom on June 3 and he fancies Misty For Me to run a big race.

Ballydoyle filly a viable alternative to favourite

Whilst Carlton House is ruling the Investec Derby ante-post roost, the same applies to the fillies' classic at Epsom, as Blue Bunting is as short as 15/8 for Investec Oaks glory 24 hours earlier. She made a real impression when powering home to land the Qipco 1000 Guineas at Newmarket on May 1, however, unlike the 2000 Guineas, winners of the second classic of the year don't have a great record when going on to run at Epsom. Nic Doggett takes a look at the respective trials and tries to work out whether there is any value in taking on the favourite.

Qipco 1000 Guineas, Newmarket May 1

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Click here for video replay Just two horses have gone on from Headquarters glory to win at Epsom in recent years, with Salsabil in 1990 and Kazzia in 2002 exceptions to the general rule. Interestingly the latter raced in the colours of Godolphin, as this year's winner Blue Bunting does, and she was a similarly stoutly-bred filly. Both horses were sent off at double-figure odds at Newmarket, with eyes more firmly on the longer-term prize, and Blue Bunting will be looking to follow in Kazzia's footsteps by justifying favouritism on the Downs. However it's not just the winner who is set to represent the form, as Sir Michael Stoute's Havant (6th) is set to reoppose. Runner-up Together still has an entry, but she is as big as 22/1, suggesting that this miler is unlikely to take the step up in trip. Similarly Laughing Lashes who disappointed at Newmarket before running well in the Irish 1000 Guineas, appears unlikely to run but does still have an entry. Beaten horses at Newmarket have gone on to win at Epsom, with Balanchine, Moonshell and Shatoush all placed in the Guineas in the 90's. Similarly horses who have finished out of the frame have also tasted glory a month on, with Reams Of Verse (6th in 1997) and Casual Look (6th in 2003) winning on the Downs. All of that is encouraging for fans of Sir Michael Stoute's Havant. She caught the eye staying on well in the Guineas, and though she lost her unbeaten record, she certainly lost little caste in defeat. That was her first run on quick ground, and she just seemed to find the race bypassing her slightly before running on again. She wouldn't want quick ground at Epsom, but connections have suggested that the normal policy of watering at the track should be in her favour and a bold bid looks assured. Her price of 6/1 reflects that, but with her trainer a master at getting improvement from his horses she looks a massive threat to the favourite.

Weatherbys Bank Cheshire Oaks, Chester May 4

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Click here for video replay Light Shift won on the Roodeye in 2007 and followed up that success at Epsom, meaning an emotional Henry Cecil was back in the winner's enclosure with his eighth Oaks winner. However bar that daughter of Kingmambo, no other winner of the Cheshire Oaks has gone on to win the classic at Epsom from the last 20 years, which is a damning statistic. Having said that, statistics don't always give a clear picture, so it's worth remembering that last-year's winner Gertrude Bell filled fourth spot at Epsom, whilst 2006 winner Time On ran a fair race in sixth spot a month later. Perhaps, coincidentally, this year's winner Wonder Of Wonders is, like Light Shift, a daughter of Kingmambo and she made a good impression at Chester. However looking objectively at the race reveals she beat a horse who had suffered defeats at Lingfield and Deauville, and although she showed a nice turn of foot to quicken off a slow pace, it's fair to say that the form of this Listed trial does not look overly strong. One point in her favour is that she looks a well-balanced filly, and her experience of the turns of Chester should stand her in good stead for the unique test of the Downs. She's a general 4/1 second favourite for the Classic and to my eyes she hasn't achieved as much as her stablemate Misty For Me in terms of form. However on her side is the fact that she is already proven over a mile and a half and should also handle the likely quick ground. She looks a solid, if somewhat unspectacular, rival.

totepool Oaks Trial Stakes, Lingfield May 7

Click here for result in full Lingfield's downhill left-hand turn for home is often viewed as the ideal replica of Tattenham Corner at Epsom and it is no surprise that this recognised trial has had a good history, with more trainers targeting this contest to test their horse's credentials for June. Winners User Friendly (1992), Lady Carla (1996) and Ramruma (1999) all went on to score at Epsom, whilst more recently Look Here was second in 2008 before going on to go one place better at on the Downs. The great filly Midday won at Lingfield the following year before finishing just a head behind Sariska, so this race is normally a strong pointer to the Oaks. This season saw a runaway winner in the form of Zain Al Boldan, who is now a general 10/1 chance for the Oaks. She stormed clear of favourite Field Of Miracles, who has a Ribblesdale entry, but the third home Date With Destiny has since let down the form. However Mick Channon's filly will head to Epsom unbeaten in three starts, and her level of improvement should not be underestimated. Fillies are renowned for showing rapid progression when approaching their peak and this daughter of Poliglote is not to be ignored on the Downs, especially as she has already shown that she is a real force on quick ground. She's not the biggest filly in the world but she looked at ease around Lingfield and the demands of Epsom may mean she can beat better horses on the day.

Swettenham Stud Fillies Stakes, Newbury May 13

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Click here for video replay Renamed in 1989, this race has only produced one Oaks winner since, with Eswarah in 2005 the horse in question. None of last-year's field made it to Epsom, although The Miniver Rose ran well in fifth in the 2009 renewal of the Oaks after finishing second in this race a month earlier. 2008 winner Clowance was subsequently fourth to Look Here, so the message to be gleaned is that those who do contest both races tend to outperform their odds. This year the race is set to be well-represented, with Izzi Top (1st) and Dancing Rain (2nd) still lively outsiders for Epsom at the time of writing.John Gosden's Izzi Top has already had three races this season, and on face value doesn't look good enough to challenge the principles. She is proven over ten furlongs however, and being out of a half-sister to strong stayer Kayf Tara, there is reason to believe that the longer trip at Epsom will be within her grasp. Although she has won at Windsor, she didn't look completely at ease with the undulations of Newmarket when beaten there earlier in the month and there must be some doubt over the suitability of the track next month. Similarly Dancing Rain is not a shoe-in to love the occasion, as she seemed to get a bit worked up at Newbury. She was also gifted an easy lead when shedding her maiden tag, and although Highest has since franked the form, there must be a question mark over its validity.

Etihad Airways 1000 Guineas, Curragh May 22

Click here for result in full Perhaps due to it's closer proximity to Epsom, perhaps because connections are keener to win the Irish Oaks, but the Irish Guineas has had a much lesser representation at Epsom. Shahtoush was 10th in 1998 before winning on the Downs, whilst the only other winner to have run at the Curragh was Imagine in 2001, with Aidan O'Brien's filly winning both races. However her impressive double took its toll, as she was retired after her Oaks success. Yesterday (2003) did chase home Casual Look at Epsom, but, along with Imagine, they are the only two Irish Guineas winners to go on to run at Epsom in the last decade. The evidence seems to suggest that Aidan O'Brien is more prepared to step his milers up in trip, so fans of 2011 winner Misty For Me should be encouraged. The daughter of Galileo disappointed in the English version, finishing 11th of 18, but she bounced back to form with a vengeance at the Curragh. She only got on top late in the day under Seamie Heffernan so there is plenty of optimism with regard to the longer trip, even if the dam's side of her pedigree is not stamina laden. She does have the Prix de Diane as an option, but connections seem to have had the Oaks in mind for a while and the 8/1 on offer seems a fair reflection of her chance. If we consider the success that O'Brien has had with his Irish Guineas winners, she looks a shoe-in to finish in the first three on the Downs. The Curragh form could also be represented by the aforementioned duo of Together (2nd), Laughing Lashes (3rd) and Chrysanthemum (7th). The last-named was having her first start of the season at the Curragh (after an interrupted preparation) and made a very pleasing return to action. She should be a lot sharper if rocking up at Epsom and the 33/1 on offer looks more about whether she will run at the Downs, considering she had been off the track since September. She would be an interesting contender if running, with the step up in trip likely to be in her favour. Look At Me (15th) doesn't look to have trained on judging by her two efforts this season, and if she runs at Epsom it appears likely to be in a pace-making role.

Conclusion:

Blue Bunting, like Kazzia nine years ago, was not expected to win at Newmarket so it must be a huge bonus that she was able to spring a surprise on the day. Whilst there is a slight nagging doubt over how well Mahmood Al Zarooni's horses progress through the season, she certainly deserves her mantle as favourite for Epsom. However her price is skinny enough, and, like Carlton House, there looks to be some value in taking her on. Aidan O'Brien's record when sending his Irish 1000 Guineas to the Downs is excellent and MISTY FOR ME looks another filly who can prove her adaptability by taking the step up in trip in her stride and prevailing next month. At odds of 8/1 she looks good value to follow in the footsteps of Imagine who did the double in 2001 for the Ballydoyle team.