How England must harness their underdog spirit to reach the Rugby League World Cup semi-finals

England’s men find themselves in an unusual position: they are favourites to beat Papua New Guinea in their final group game, but underdogs to emerge from the combined Groups B and C and reach the semi-finals

They trail Samoa by 68 points on points difference and cannot finish above Tonga because of their head-to-head record, leaving their hopes of progressing dependent on a convincing win and results elsewhere going their way.

That means they must beat Papua New Guinea by as big a margin as possible, then hope Tonga defeat Samoa by enough to give England a route into the semi-finals.

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If that all aligns, into the semi-finals they will go.

England's women, meanwhile, face a more straightforward equation. A win against Samoa would secure their place in the semi-finals, but it would rank among the biggest victories of their campaign. They are capable of pulling it off, but the challenge is clear.

England were beaten 78-0 by the Jillaroos, while Samoa lost 40-0 to the same opposition. Those results offer a stark indication of the task ahead.

Both England sides need to show the fighting spirit that has become synonymous with the nation as they look to make their mark on the other side of the world.

England's men may sit third in the international rankings, but that is not how they are viewed Down Under. Australia, New Zealand, Tonga and Samoa are all considered ahead of them, despite England having whitewashed both Tonga and Samoa in recent series.

The complicated group structure has done Brian McDermott's side few favours. They effectively had one chance to put themselves in a strong position, and they needed to beat Tonga in their opening match to do so. Instead, they lost 30-12.

Even two wins from their remaining games - and convincing ones at that - may not be enough to save their campaign.

But they could be enough.

They could be enough despite England's men not meeting up once before the tournament. They could be enough despite having just two training sessions to prepare for their opening group match. They could be enough with the odds stacked against them.

Both England teams face an uphill battle, albeit for different reasons. While the men must overcome a difficult qualification equation, the women face opponents with greater experience of playing together.

Samoa's women, in particular, boast a squad packed with young, emerging talent who play week in, week out in the National Rugby League Women's Premiership (NRLW), gaining regular experience in one of the world's most intense women's rugby league competitions.

They were viewed before the tournament as the team most capable of pushing the Jillaroos closest. But England should not be written off after their heavy opening defeat. The 2022 Rugby League World Cup offers a reminder of why: England's men demolished Samoa in their opening game, only to be beaten by them in the semi-finals.

For England's women, the equation is simpler: beat Samoa and reach the semi-finals. With their place in the last four on the line, they must show that, despite the women's game in England still being a work in progress, they can compete with the best on the international stage.

A chance to change the narrative

There has been plenty of discussion about what international rugby league needs to thrive: greater investment, more mid-season internationals and more opportunities for the global game to capture the public's attention. The need for that backing is clear.

The prospect of both England sides exiting at the group stage has been described as a potential wake-up call for the sport in this hemisphere - a chance to invest in players, give the international game greater prominence and find a way to close the gap on the other side of the world.

But this is not a new conversation. After England's men fell short at the 2008 World Cup, figures at the top of the sport reviewed what had gone wrong. Many remain influential today, underlining how long these questions have persisted.

Failure can force change. But perhaps the bigger shock - and the more powerful catalyst - would be for England to succeed when so few expect them to.

If the men and women both defy the odds and reach the semi-finals, it would be more than a sporting triumph. It would be a statement that English rugby league can compete, and an opportunity to build momentum for the international game rather than wait for another failure to force the issue.

Seeing England differently

McDermott said before the tournament that a visit to just one NRL club would show how remarkable it is that England can compete, given the infrastructure available Down Under. The playing field is so uneven that England's position among the international elite is an achievement in itself.

Too often, we judge England's rugby league teams by how far they still have to go. But is it time to look instead at how much they have achieved in spite of the disadvantages they face?

Could that be the catalyst for people to recognise the potential of English rugby league and give it the backing it deserves?

The sport has long searched for its lightbulb moment: the spark that sets change in motion, the first domino to fall. Perhaps, rather than another setback being needed to force that change, this could be the tournament in which success provides the catalyst.

It remains a long shot. England know the task ahead is monumental, but they persist regardless.

They will take that fight into their clashes with Papua New Guinea and Samoa, and by Sunday we will know how far their persistence has taken them.

For England, it is not about the resources they lack, but the fight they show and what they can achieve against the odds.