Challenge Cup final upset is overdue, says Phil Clarke

Sky Sports' Phil Clarke looks back on some Challenge Cup upsets from yesteryear, and says that we are overdue another...

Have you ever witnessed a rugby league earthquake? The last one that I saw was back in 1998 when the Sheffield Eagles beat Wigan in the Challenge Cup final and I wonder if we are due another one.

I love Wembley week. It's been better than Christmas week since I left primary school. Of course, it helps if your team are involved, but even if they're not, it tends to bring back nostalgic memories of yesteryear and it has a hypnotic pull which draws you there again.

Trips to Wembley with your family and friends act as milestones in many people's lives, they're like a 'comfort blanket', reminding us that everything is okay in the world, you're still alive.

I bumped into a friend the other day who is as excited about going to his 38th final as he was when he first went to watch Leeds play St Helens in 1978. Could he be about to witness the next big shock in this year's final between Leeds and Hull KR?

It's been almost 30 years since Hull KR last walked out to play in the Challenge Cup final and I wonder if they know what they need to do to win. Most people have written them off, the bookmakers have given them a 16-point start and it looks on paper to be a one-sided contest.

Aggressive defence, offloads whilst in possession and kicks which cause problems are the three best ways that Hull KR can start to apply some pressure to the favourites.

I've seen some teams freeze when they walk out onto the pitch and it's half-time before they realise where they are and what they're supposed to be doing. If you look back at your Cup final history, you'll notice that the 'earthquake' happens in the final about every 10 or 15 years and the next one is overdue.

In 1998, Sheffield started with confidence and threw the ball around when they were in their opponent's half. Interestingly they scored the first try of the match from a kick, something that Hull KR have been very good at this year.

They also scored the second try when their left winger, Matt Crowther, crashed over from close range. It was the sort of try that Josh Mantellato has been scoring regularly this season.

Their third and last try was a 50cm effort, when they played-the-ball close to the try line again, and their hooker dived over to ground the ball.  It doesn't have to be spectacular, they all count for four points.

Fifteen years before that, Featherstone pulled off a result which was equally as big an upset. Hull had all of the experience of big games and the star names but once again the underdogs scored the first try and seemed to grow in confidence.

They were even behind 12-7 at one point but fought back level in the last 10 minutes. They kicked a penalty goal and won by two points.

The only other time when 'lightning' has struck during my lifetime was in 1971 when Leigh beat Leeds. Leigh again scored first in this match – although it was a drop goal and not a try – which gave them a 2-0 lead. They were also the first team to cross for a try.

They managed to unsettle and upset the favourites, which is something that Chris Chester's team must do on Saturday. Aggressive defence, offloads whilst in possession and kicks which cause problems are the three best ways that Hull KR can start to apply some pressure to the favourites.

They'll also need some luck, with those close calls going their way, because Leeds have learned how to win when the pressure is on.

In last year's final, Coach McDermott knew it was all about winning, not entertaining. They played in a simple manner, aiming to dominate possession and field position. They ended the match having had almost three times as many plays in their opponent's 20-metre zone. If this happens again I fear that Leeds will have it won by half-time.

After beating Warrington, Catalan, Bradford and Wigan it's only right that Hull KR walk out at Wembley. I hope that they've got some seismic activity left in them. If they win this one it may go down as the greatest 'earthquake' ever.