Conor McGregor can claim another swift win over Nate Diaz at UFC 196, says Adam Matues
Friday 4 March 2016 14:25, UK
UFC expert Adam Matues is backing Conor McGregor to record a second-round win over Nate Diaz at UFC 196...
Conor McGregor should have been attempting to make history on Saturday night by becoming the first fighter in UFC history to hold two belts at once.
However, his scheduled opponent, lightweight champion Rafael Dos Anjos, broke his foot just 11 days before the bout, becoming the second of McGregor's last eight scheduled opponents to pull out of a fight with him.
As news spread of his withdrawal, many fighters threw their names into the hat to replace Dos Anjos, but one in particular stood out.
Back in December following a unanimous decision win over Michael Johnson, Nate Diaz launched a foul-mouthed tirade live on air calling out McGregor, claiming it would be 'The Big Money Fight'.
The UFC granted the Ultimate Fighter season five winner his wish, with the company's two biggest trash talkers set to clash at the welterweight limit of 170lbs, which seems outrageous given that McGregor is the current 145lb champion.
At odds of 1/5 McGregor is the overwhelming outright favourite but at such a short price I am looking elsewhere for a bet and I will first make the case for a huge upset.
Could Diaz win?
Diaz balances technical boxing skills with an exceptional ground game, giving him options when building his game plan for this fight.
The American will have seen how often Chad Mendes was able to take down McGregor and he may see that as his big opportunity to get the win.
However, having only ever been knocked out once, he may be confident enough to engage in a tactical striking contest and, at 6ft 1in, Diaz is significantly bigger than the 5ft 9in McGregor, making it the first time 'The Notorious' hasn't had a height and reach advantage over an opponent.
At 7/2, Diaz is the significant underdog with many expecting him to enter the Octagon out of shape, having accepted the fight at just 10 days' notice.
However, to me this price is a little too big as we know Diaz has a relentless engine, fine-tuned by training for triathlons in his spare time, something which he was doing when he got the call about this fight.
With 10 of his last 19 wins coming via submission, five of which were in the second round, a small bet on Diaz to win by submission in the second at 40/1 with Sky Bet should appeal to those sensing an upset.
Mystic Mac
McGregor's distance control inside the Octagon is better than anyone's so, should the fight stay standing, the height and reach disadvantage is negligible.
Even if the fight goes to the ground, McGregor proved against Chad Mendes, a world-class wrestler, that he can manoeuvre himself back into an advantageous position.
McGregor has built a reputation of being able to correctly predict exactly when and how he will beat an opponent, earning himself the nickname 'Mystic Mac' in the process.
This time he has predicted he will stop Diaz inside the first round and he could be proven right again if he can force Diaz into making mistakes like he did to Jose Aldo in a 13-second demolition.
Sky Bet have boosted McGregor to win in the first two minutes from 3/1 to 5/1, which looks a nice price when compared to the 11/8 for the first-round win, especially if you believe McGregor when he says Diaz will be "hurt in the first exchange".
None of his last five fights have gone past the second round, compared to Diaz who has gone the distance in three of his. As spectacular as a first-round stoppage would be, I see this lasting longer with both to keep a vicious pace for the first round and a half.
Diaz is very tough and I expect the first round to be fairly even with both fighters striking well but a 10-day fight preparation is not enough to take on arguably the best pound-for-pound fighter in the UFC.
As Diaz's legs begin to get heavy towards the end of the second, I expect McGregor to back up his claim that he is "too fast and elusive for these stuck in the mud welterweights" by picking off Diaz whenever he advances.
Therefore my main bet is going to be McGregor to KO Diaz in the second round, which is available at 10/3 with Sky Bet.
