Monday 7 November 2016 12:44, UK
Stuart Barnes pays tribute to Joe Schmidt and Ireland for their wonderful win over New Zealand and looks ahead to England v South Africa...
1. Where else can we start but in Chicago? This season the All Blacks have taken the sport to a new level of excellence. They romped through the Rugby Championship with unprecedented ease and broke the world record for consecutive Test triumphs at tier-one level. A black shadow seemed to have settled over the rugby world only for Ireland to blow those clouds away in Windy City with what is surely the greatest 80 minutes of Irish international rugby. Now the trick is to forget it and for Ireland to become the elite rugby nation they have threatened to become but never quite achieved through the era of Brian O'Driscoll, Paul O'Connell, Declan Kidney and Joe Schmidt.
We wallow in our triumphs in this part of the world. The football team haven't recovered from success (with home advantage) half a century ago while England cannot stop obsessing over Manu Tuilagi on the basis of his wonder game when England last beat the All Blacks in 2012. In Schmidt, Ireland have the perfect man to make them into the World Cup contenders they flattered to be last time around. Well ahead of Tokyo is a rematch with New Zealand in less than a fortnight, a Six Nations where England suddenly look anything but nailed on certainties and, of course, the Lions tour. Ireland galvanised the world of Test-match rugby on Saturday.
2. To see such a performance makes a man wonder why Schmidt isn't coaching the Lions. However, this wasn't a performance produced off the back of a few weeks' preparation. Ireland have shifted the way its players think about Test rugby. There is a huge amount of detail needs taking in when you become a part of the Schmidt team. That is fine when a coach has a long-term contract and the capacity to control individuals as Schmidt does. As a regular Test match or club coach, I have always held the New Zealander in the highest regard. He's the best coach in this hemisphere and has been by a distance for some but the ad hoc nature of the Lions isn't the right fit for the detailed and brilliant Schmidt as a head coach.
3. Andy Farrell, in stark contrast, can prepare a team in a short space of time. If Schmidt provides the intellect, his defence coach gives the passion. Farrell has beaten the All Blacks with both Ireland and England and has a successful CV against the (woeful) Wallabies in 2013. In the light of what happened in Cardiff to Shaun Edwards' Welsh defence, it looks to be a shoot-out between Farrell, the former England defence coach and the current England one, Paul Gustard. Given Farrell's proven record against New Zealand and his Lions experience, any other choice would be a substantial shock.
4. The Irish win will have an impact on the tour, even though it remains a long way away. Warren Gatland has said he doesn't want anyone who doesn't believe they can beat New Zealand having a seat on the Lions plane. Suddenly there are a whole lot of Irishmen who can put their hands up and say, `pick me, I'm not afraid of them.' It is a psychological boost for the hemisphere.
5. It could also prove - paradoxically enough - a terrible hindrance. Having been brought back down to earth by Ireland, Steve Hansen has a recent reminder of what happens to a team who are not quite on their game. Had New Zealand left Europe unbeaten complacency threatened to be an ally for the Lions. Now there is evidence that we have players good enough to beat the Blacks. Schmidt dissected the New Zealand game and found a way through. Hansen and his management team will analyse what went wrong in Chicago and address those problems in a hurry. Ireland's win was no template for beating the world's best team because New Zealand are precocious learners.
6. The same cannot be said for Wales. The 11-game losing sequence against Australia became 12 as Wales were walloped by a team who have suffered untold indignities at the hands of the All Blacks this season. Whatever Wales achieve in the Six Nations, surely there is a case to be made against Welsh Lions contenders, based on the fact that they have a serial losers' mindset when it comes to New Zealand, Australia and South Africa. In the wake of the defeat Jamie Roberts said, "We have been there before." That is one of the more glaring truths, Jamie. Wales have a shambolic record against the best. If Argentina turn up with their brains as well as their ambition, it could be another awful day in Cardiff. Argentina played one of the great games of their history against Ireland in the World Cup quarter-final at the Principality Stadium, Wales, be warned.
7. Roberts also stated the lessons in defeat would be learned. Since the game went professional, Wales have a record of 21 defeats, a draw and two victories against Australia; 20 defeats and two wins against the Springboks and 17 straight losses at New Zealand hands. I would suggest they are not very good in a classroom, not when they are in the same class as the high achievers.
8. There was nothing too smart about the South African effort at Wembley, either. The Barbarians were the better team but a non-existent Barbarians organisation at the lineout and typically determined Springbok final 10 minutes rescued a draw. It was a good day for the Barbarians but another worrying one for South Africa. The personnel will be different when they take England on but there has been a lack of shape and coherence ever since Allister Coetzee took the helm this season. The lineout is an area of Springbok strength and one that could cause a disrupted England problems. But even with a few injuries (which team doesn't have them) there is no excuse for not ending a 12-match run without victory against South Africa.
9. Four straight wins has been glibly mentioned (by me as much as anyone else) for England's autumn but while Ireland's win was a shot in the arm for the international game, so too was the Australian performance in Cardiff where Bernard Foley was mesmeric at fly-half. The Wallabies were not taken seriously when an autumn Grand Slam was mentioned by the excellent Michael Cheika. It remains a hell of a challenge with away games to England and Ireland (you'll see all the Irish games live on Sky) but who knows what comes next after Chicago?
10. South Africa will think `yet another win against England'; the English press are ruling the possibility out of the equation. But who tipped Ireland to win on Saturday? The Springboks are in disarray, have no shape or structure, have not won on the road in four efforts this season. All the evidence points to England but it won't just happen. A few `world-class' performances will help England end their bogey: I am looking to Mako Vunipola and Owen Farrell in particular for England. South Africa will be hoping Eben Etzebeth can lead the physical charge for the underdogs. England are on a long winning run of their own and it will come to an end, they all do. But it should not be against this South Africa team and it should not be Saturday. The pressure is on Eddie Jones's team to make it 10 out of 10. Join us at Twickenham to see it all unfold.
