Monday 23 January 2017 12:05, UK
Stuart Barnes examines Europe's quarter-finals while questioning Connacht's decision to shun a drop goal against Toulouse.
1 Here is how the organisers explain the draw or the European semi-finals. "The format for the semi-final recognises performances by clubs during the pool stage as well as the achievement of winning a quarter-final away from home." How does this translate?
The No 4 seeds are away at semi-final stage no matter who wins the other quarter-final in their half of the draw. The No 5 seeds will be at home, no matter who wins the tie between first and eighth. The top seeds will only be at home if the fourth seeds beat the fifth, and the eighth seeds will likewise need a win for the fourth seed to have home advantage.
In the other half of the pool, the sixth seeds will have home advantage no matter what the result between teams ranked two and seven, while the third seeded team is away, irrelevant of the result between two and seven. The second seeds will only be at home if the sixth seeds are knocked out whilst the seventh seeds will need the sixth seed to lose... clear enough?
I hate to spoil the fun, but beneath what appears the Byzantine nature of the draw it has been very cleverly - and fairly - put together.
To translate another way, the top seed will have the reward of two home semi-finals if the other home quarter-finalist prevails. In other words, it is guaranteed one home and away tie but will benefit fully if the lower seeded fourth-placed team wins.
The second seed likewise have the advantage of two home ties if the other 'home' quarter-finalist in the bottom half of the draw win. These teams have the biggest potential advantage because of their pool-stage achievements.
"Losing away is one thing, hammered at home quite another. Leicester, it is fair to say, are in a state of crisis."
The third and fourth seeds have home advantage in the quarter-finals but will have to win away from home in the semis no matter what. One home and one away game; it's tougher than the draw for the top two.
The sixth seeds, like the fifth seeds in the top half of the draw, are sure of a home tie if they win their away quarter-final, while the seventh have to hope for the third seed to win if they are to play at home. Likewise the eighth seed needs the fourth seed to come through against the fifth.
To recap, the top two seeds are the only two sides who can possibly play both knock-out ties at home, the third and fourth seeds will definitely play their quarter final at home. The fifth and sixth, should they prevail away in the last eight, will play one match, the semi at home, while the seventh and eighth - the lowest qualifiers - are the only sides who could play both quarter and semi-final away.
The top two could play two home games, the third and fourth seeds will only play one at home, fifth and sixth might play one at home and the seventh and eighth ranked teams could reach the final without a home tie - the hardest route for the least convincing qualifiers.
The seeding system is superb. What a wonderful little equation.
2 As for the draw itself, there are six former winners in the last eight and three former finals as quarter-finals ties; Clermont versus Toulon and Munster against Toulouse in the top tier, while in the Challenge Cup Bath fans can have a nostalgic moment as they contemplate their tie with Brive.
3 Can Clermont finally lift the Cup? On the plus side they are playing some superb attacking rugby yet again. On the negative side, they have yet to prove they have the nerve.
Another massive downside from the game against Exeter was the injury that rules Wesley Fofana out of the Six Nations. The Clermont midfield was set to be the creative hub of France. It is a bitter blow for individual and team ahead of the tournament.
4 Toulouse's Gael Fickou looks the likely replacement on the strength of his superb performance against Connacht. He epitomised the extra class at the Toulouse team's disposal but Connacht came so close to making the last eight, even without Bundee Aki.
Ah but, coaching staffs need to readdress the issue of the drop goal.
Connacht, like Glasgow last week, didn't miss the drop - they missed the chance. If a team needs a penalty to win (or get the requisite bonus point) and is awarded one within range 10 minutes from the end, 95 per cent of sides take the kick.
So why are teams like Connacht and Glasgow running the clock down and waiting for the moment that often doesn't arise for the drop kick? It's a harder skill, I know, but they are both worth three points, boys and girls, wake up!
5 I know I am mixing up my Big Five animals but there's an elephant in the Lions' room. It comes in the not very elephant-like shape of Jonathon Sexton, whose latest calf injury is another reminder of how frail his body appears to be.
Crossing fingers every time a player runs onto a field is not an ideal way to think about the potential Lions' Test No 10.
6 Munster march on with their uncomplicated game; robust, rugged, and overflowing with self-belief of old. How far will a great pick-and-drive, breakdown, box-kicking game and magnificent defence take you?
With a home quarter-final against a talented but temperamental Toulouse team I reckon semis are the least of their hopes. Then it is Glasgow away or Saracens at home in those semis...
7 Glasgow were stifled by Munster in round five but proved unstoppable at Welford Road where the Tigers were torn apart.
After the last few years of high-class attacking rugby, a knock-out place is the least Gregor Townsend deserves before he departs for the Scotland job. Dave Rennie, his replacement will have loved watching Saturday's game.
8 Not so the Leicester fans who saw their team hit rock bottom on Saturday. Losing away is one thing, hammered at home quite another. Leicester, it is fair to say, are in a state of crisis.
9 Their replacements as England's top club, Saracens, had one hell of a scrap with Toulon. Missing so many key players, it was fine effort to battle their way to victory and secure a home quarter-final, oh and one quick line on Chris Ashton, yet again their saviour... an outsider for the Lions?
10 I haven't mentioned Leinster and Wasps. Suffice to say that one very good team is going out at the quarter-final stage. Memories go back to Wasps' semi-final match against Munster at Lansdowne Road way back when. What a match that was, and what a series of matches we have in store.
