US Open 2026: Pundit predictions, ones to watch, form guide and pick who will win major at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
Can Scottie Scheffler complete the career Grand Slam? Will Rory McIlroy enjoy more major success? Predictions and your views on who will win the US Open this week at Shinnecock Hills - watch all four rounds live on Sky Sports Golf
Tuesday 16 June 2026 21:45, UK
European golfers have made a historic start to the major season, but will their winning streak continue when tackling a challenging Shinnecock Hills at the US Open?
Rory McIlroy successfully defended his title at The Masters before Aaron Rai claimed a shock victory at the PGA Championship, marking the first time in the modern era that Europeans have won the first two majors of the calendar year.
Matt Fitzpatrick won the 2022 US Open and is already a three-time winner on the PGA Tour this season, while Jon Rahm has also enjoyed plenty of success on LIV Golf in 2026 and a contender for a third major victory.
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Justin Rose has top-10 finishes in the first two majors of the season and Tommy Fleetwood equalled the course record with a final-round 63 here in 2018, leaving him runner-up to Brooks Koepka, while Ludvig Åberg, Robert MacIntyre and Tyrrell Hatton all chase maiden major titles.
"I think over time we [Europeans] have got a lot more comfortable with the style of golf that you need to play and the set-ups around here," McIlroy said in his pre-tournament press conference. "A historic start to the major season for golfers from that part of the world.
"I would say this is more a UK or European style of test than certainly the first two majors at Augusta and Aronimink, so it certainly wouldn't surprise me to see a few players from Europe and the UK in contention."
Could a European become a multiple US Open champion?
Koepka became a back-to-back champion after successfully defending his title here in 2018, a year on from his breakthrough major title at Erin Hills, with multiple Europeans now having the chance to join the American as a two-time US Open winner.
Rahm has already won twice on LIV Golf this season and finished runner-up to Tyrrell Hatton at Valderrama earlier this month, having ended tied-second behind Rai at the PGA Championship.
"It would be nice to see Jon break through again," Andrew Coltart told the Sky Sports Golf podcast. "A double major champion, a winner at Torrey Pines way back in 2021 and he knows how to play this game. He is such, such a talented golfer.
"I wonder how hot he'll run this week, given the difficulty of the golf course and how it gets under your skin, but over the last three years he has played some of the most consistent top-quality golf in the world."
McIlroy won a maiden major title at the US Open in 2011 and has top-20 finishes in his last seven appearances at the event, including back-to-back runners-up in 2023 and 2024, while a win this week would see him complete the third leg of the 'double Grand Slam'.
"Over the last few years he has proved himself much better than he's ever been in his career at playing difficult golf courses," Sky Sports' Paul McGinley said. "I think he's a lot more of a patient player now and we're seeing the consistency at the top-end of major championships in contention.
"He's not racing into backdoor top-tens anymore - he's in the conversation going into the last round. He's certainly a factor and the wider fairways may well play into his psyche, give him a little bit more room and take a bit of the pressure off in terms of straightness with his driver."
2013 US Open champion Rose won the Farmers Insurance Open this season and challenged McIlroy for major victory at The Masters, while world No 4 Fitzpatrick arrives off the back of a runner-up finish at last week's RBC Canadian Open.
"I think whatever he does for the rest of his career, he [Fitzpatrick] will still be underrated - he's that sort of person and player," Laurie Canter told the Sky Sports Golf podcast. "I think his ability to keep churning out massive results on big golf courses - in the biggest tournaments - is hugely impressive.
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"When you've got the driver and the putter the way he has most of the time, I think if your iron play improves then that probably unlocks a load of things for you, which is where all this form's come from."
A Grand Slam for Scheffler? Another maiden major champion?
JJ Spaun returns as defending champion after last year's two-shot victory and Brooks Koepka chases a third US Open title, having shown a return to form on the PGA Tour this season, with world No 3 Cameron Young another American eyeing a home major victory.
World No 1 Scheffler is the pre-tournament favourite to claim a fifth major title in as many seasons, which would see him complete the career Grand Slam - at the first time of asking - and on his 30th birthday.
"Even though he's fallen off [this season], this is so close [statistically] to where Tiger Woods was," Brandel Chamblee told Golf Channel. It doesn't happen very often that someone comes along and makes more birdies than anybody else on average and also makes fewer bogeys than anyone else on average.
"Even though it's not one of his better years in terms of the raw data, when you look at how few mistakes and how many birdies he's making, he's right there with Tiger. Even in a year where he's slightly off his game, he's the player that you have to pick this week.
"You win so seldom in this game, but he is by far a bigger favourite than anybody else in the field."
The last four US Open champions have come from outside the world's top 10, with strong winds - on one of the toughest venues in the major roster - meaning this week's champion is another tricky tournament to predict.
Who will win the US Open? Watch throughout the week live on Sky Sports. Live coverage from the opening round begins on Thursday from 12.30pm on Sky Sports Golf. Get Sky Sports or stream with no contract.
