Simon Holt: Chester
Simon Holt previews Wednesday's totesport.com Chester Cup and he fancies Overturn to win from the front.
By Simon Holt
Last Updated: 04/05/11 12:07pm
It's an extremely competitive renewal of the totesport.com Chester Cup and several of the horses that were involved last year take their chances again.
The winner Mamlook narrowly beat Tastahil last year with Red Cadeaux a slightly unlucky loser on that occassion and there might not be much to choose between any of them this time around.
Tastahil went on from Chester and ran some very good races later on in the campaign and actually holds a couple of these on a run when second to Samuel at the Doncaster St Leger meeting - Dirar was fifth and Darley Sun was sixth.
The problem he's got is the lack of rain as it looks like being a good bit quicker than the good ground he ran on when second in this race last season.
The horse that is likely to start favourite and likely to be hard to beat is Overturn who is trained by Grand National winning-trainer Donald McCain.
He's been running with some distinction over hurdles and on ratings I've a suspicion that he might still be well handicapped on the Flat.
He won the Northumberland Plate last season and went up to a rating of 99 and the only time he's run off his new mark was in the Ebor when he was over the top and didn't give his running.
Since then he's been running very well over hurdles and his rating in that sphere has gone up 15lbs so I do feel he might still be well in on the level.
What's more, he's got an ideal draw to suit his front-running tactics in stall one and Eddie Ahern should be able to jump out quickly and get him into his rhythm out in front.
He might just take some pegging back.
There are, of course, plenty of potential dangers and the one that catches the eye further down the weights is Mount Athos, now trained by David Wachman.
He was a progressive staying handicapper for John Hills last season and on his first run for Wachman he carried 9st12lbs to victory in a Dundalk handicap.
He's been drawn very badly on the wide outside in stall 19 which is a tough position to overcome, but if he can somehow get a good position early he could be the main danger to Overturn.
Recommendation:
1pt win Overturn in Chester Cup at 11/2 (general)
