Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans: Playoff place up for grabs in winner-takes-all clash
Watch Colts @ Titans, live on Sky Sports Action from 1.10am on Monday morning
Monday 31 December 2018 00:18, UK
Win and you're through to January football; lose and your season is over.
That's the equation on Sunday night as the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans meet in a winner-takes-all showdown, fighting for not only a playoff place, but also potentially the AFC South division - defeat for the Houston Texans against the Jacksonville Jaguars would open the door.
Here, we break down the must-win clash, live on Sky Sports Action from 1.20am on Monday morning…
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Luck back lighting up the league
We simply have to start with the Colts' comeback quarterback. Not even Andrew Luck would surely have believed his season would go so well after coming back from shoulder surgery that sidelined him for all of the 2017 season. But, here we are, 4,308 yards and 36 touchdown passes (second in the league) later, and with the chance to guide his team back to the postseason promised land for the first time in four years.
Statistically, that had been Luck's best season to date since being drafted No 1 overall in 2012, but this year he has posted career highs in completion percentage (67.2) and passer rating (98.0), while a 438-yard and four TD day on Sunday would see him match his 2014 tallies.
Perhaps a little ambitious. But, if there was one team you wouldn't bet against Luck running up the numbers on, it's the Titans. Luck is 10-0 in his career against Tennessee, including a 38-10 drubbing earlier this season in which the QB threw for 297 yards and three TDs. Since the 1970 merger, no quarterback has more wins without a loss versus a single opponent.
That Week 11 win over the Titans was one of eight from their Colts' last nine, having started the season 1-5 while Luck found his feet. Well, they're well and truly found now, with Indianapolis running red hot entering the playoffs. Another win on Sunday and no one will relish the prospect of playing the Colts and their No 12.
Henry hammering it on the ground
For Indianapolis, the threat comes at quarterback, but for Tennessee it lies in the backfield. Is there a more in-from runner in the NFL right now than Derrick Henry?
Henry had been largely labelled a bust after being drafted out of Alabama in 2016, but it appears the big-bodied back is finally delivering on his undoubted potential. Since that defeat to the Colts in November, only Saquon Barkley of the New York Giants has registered more rushing yards than Henry's 608 (just four more, to be precise), with his efforts helping the Titans to a four-game win streak coming into Sunday's contest.
Having struggled as part of a 'running-back-by-committee' approach during the majority of his time in Tennessee - firstly sharing the spotlight with DeMarco Murray, and then Dion Lewis in the early part of this year - Henry is now relishing his role as the bell cow. It's one he undoubtedly earned with a staggering 238-yard and four-TD effort against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 14 that included a 99-yarder to the house.
Henry followed that up with 34 touches, 170 yards and two further scores against the Giants and then a measly-by-comparison 84-yard and one-TD outing against the Washington Redskins last weekend. With uncertainty over the fitness of starting quarterback Marcus Mariota, it will be Henry again asked to do the bulk of the work.
Who wins defensive battle?
Despite the obvious star power on offense, where this game is most likely won and lost is in the battle of the trenches. For example, in the last 10 matchups between the two teams, the team that has won the sack differential has gone on to win seven times.
Advantage Indianapolis? It seems incredible to say it, given half the reason Luck required shoulder surgery in the first place was the play of a porous offensive line in front of him. The Colts quarterback was sacked a staggering 41 times in both his rookie year and 2016 while, other than an injury-shortened 2015 season, the lowest mark in any intervening season was a still fairly lofty 27 takedowns in 2014.
This year, though, Luck has been laid out only 17 times in 15 games - the lowest mark in the entire league. A big reason, the arrival of rookie guard Quenton Nelson from Notre Dame, whose stellar efforts have earned him a Pro Bowl nod.
This is not a Titans defense to be taken lightly, however, sitting second in the NFL in scoring, as they are, and seventh in total defense. The Colts defense too is much improved, and with another rookie impressing, linebacker Darius Leonard, the NFL's leading tackler with 155. 'Defense wins championships' they say, so whichever unit has the better day on Sunday likely stays in the Super Bowl hunt.
Rookie coaches off to strong start
And, finally, we can't ignore the impressive efforts of both first-year head coaches, Frank Reich (Indianapolis) and Mike Vrabel (Tennessee), and the role they've played in pushing their teams to the brink of the playoffs.
Starting with Reich. This wasn't even supposed to be his job. The former Philadelphia Eagles offensive coordinator - who helped mastermind their Super Bowl win last season - was quite clearly second choice, after New England Patriots OC Josh McDaniels famously accepted and then rejected the job in one fateful day back in February. But, McDaniels' loss has very much been Reich's gain, while any potential playoff reunion with the Patriots - again AFC East winners - is certainly a mouth-watering prospect.
And, staying with the Patriots, former linebacker and Super Bowl winner in New England, Vrabel, has been a big hit in Tennessee, despite only one year's worth of experience as an NFL coordinator with divisional rivals Houston last season. The highlight of his rookie year surely was his team's 34-10 hammering of his former mentor Bill Belichick and the evil Patriots empire back in Week 10.
Reich and Vrabel have each injected a bold, fresh approach into franchises in desperate need of it, though they have not been without their critics. That bold approach saw both fall foul of decisions to 'go for it' on fourth down in early-season defeats to the Texans (in overtime) and the Los Angeles Chargers (at Wembley), when ties that could currently be of use to them were on offer.
But, to quote a famous Only Fools and Horses character - it is Christmas after all - 'he who dares wins'. And on Sunday, the win is all that matters.
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