Why Super Bowl 60 between the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks is the most unlikely in NFL history
Sky Sports statistician Benedict Bermange details the most unlikely Super Bowl matchup in NFL history based on preseason odds; Watch the New England Patriots against the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl 60 at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California, live on Sky Sports NFL from 10pm Sunday
Saturday 7 February 2026 21:38, UK
Welcome to the most unlikely Super Bowl in history. At least, that's what the odds tell you.
Before the 2025 season kicked off, a glance at the preseason Super Bowl odds would have revealed the Philadelphia Eagles, Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens as joint-favourites at 7/1, followed by perennial contenders in the Kansas City Chiefs at 8/1.
You would hardly have given the Seattle Seahawks at 60/1 or the Patriots at 80/1 a second look, but that is where we are now - the longest combined odds of two teams to reach the Super Bowl since records began - or since 1977 when such odds were released.
In fact, only five Super Bowls in history have provided combined pre-season odds of the two teams of more than 1,000/1.
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Second on the list is the thriller between the Titans and Rams in Super Bowl 34 in the Georgia Dome, Atlanta, which ended when linebacker Mike Jones tackled wide receiver Kevin Dyson on the one-yard line to prevent a touchdown that could have forced overtime or won the game for the Titans.
The Rams' 23-16 victory made them the longest-priced Super Bowl champion in history, having started the season as 150/1 outsiders. That season saw the team's first playoff appearance since 1989, and their first division title since 1985.
Third on the list of longest-priced Super Bowls is the Super Bowl 16 match-up between the 49ers and Bengals in the Pontiac Silverdome, the first time the NFL's championship game had been held in a 'cold weather' city.
Both teams were making their Super Bowl debuts and it was the 49ers who emerged as the 26-21 winners, the first of their five titles to date. Before the season the 49ers' odds had been 50/1, whereas before a ball had been kicked in the following season their odds were 5/1, illustrating the impression Joe Montana and head coach Bill Walsh had made.
Whichever team wins this weekend's Super Bowl will position themselves second in the list of longest-priced teams to win the ultimate prize in the NFL.
Those 1999 Rams lead the way by a comfortable margin, with pre-season bettors clearly not convinced by the team's 4-12 record the previous season and the new combination of head coach Mike Martz and quarterback Trent Green - just signed from Washington.
However, what transpired was a miraculous transformation into the "Greatest Show on Turf". Marshall Faulk was obtained from the Colts in exchange for two draft picks, and when Trent Green was injured in preseason, Kurt Warner took over as the starting quarterback. The team went on to finish 13-3 in the regular season, scoring at least 30 points on twelve occasions, and recorded seven pick-sixes on defense.
The 2001 Patriots season started tragically with the death of quarterbacks coach Dick Rehbein and when starter Drew Bledsoe was injured in the second game of the regular season, Bill Belichick was forced to throw in former sixth-round pick Tom Brady to start the rest of the season at quarterback.
That was the start of arguably the greatest dynasty in NFL history, bringing six Lombardi Trophies to New England and cementing Brady's legacy as the most decorated player in NFL history.
The Patriots reacted to their 4-13 record in 2024 by replacing Jerod Mayo with Mike Vrabel as head coach. A great deal has been discussed about the team's favourable schedule this season, and their opponents' combined winning percentage of 0.391 in the regular season was the lowest among all 32 NFL teams.
When they had to play on the road in the AFC Championship game a mile above sea level against the Broncos, their top-seeded hosts were without their injured starting quarterback Bo Nix. In the last 35 years, of all the teams to have made the Super Bowl, only those 1999 Rams faced an easier combined regular-season and postseason path. However, the Patriots did allow the fourth-fewest points in the league this season after ranking 22nd last year. And in the playoffs, they've given up an average of 8.7 points per game.
The Seahawks' path has been somewhat tougher on paper at least. Having to come through a division providing three playoff teams, they had to face both the 49ers and Rams three times each. The team conceded the fewest points in the NFL during the regular season, but they also scored the third most, despite quarterback Sam Darnold leading the league in turnovers.
Ever since the end of Super Bowl 49, Malcolm Butler's goal-line Interception has haunted the Seahawks franchise and its fans as they have searched for redemption. Back in 1986 Boston Red Sox first baseman Bill Buckner committed the error that many fans blamed for the team's inability to win the World Series that year. The team managed to exorcise that monkey eighteen years later in 2004. For Seahawks fans, victory could end 11 years of similar hurt.
Whichever team wins the big game, fans will look back at the 2025 season as one of surprises - perhaps not quite as surprising as the 2015/16 Premier League season which saw 5000/1 underdog Leicester City emerge victorious - but a surprising season nonetheless, which will make a look at next season's preseason odds all the more interesting.
Watch the New England Patriots against the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl 60 at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday February 8, with coverage under way at 10pm live on Sky Spots NFL ahead of kick-off at approximately 11.30pm
