NFL Week 5 predictions
Friday 9 October 2015 15:43, UK
The NFL is getting tasty and Sky Sports expert Richard Graves reckons he knows what to expect in Week 5 ....
Byes: Carolina, Miami, Minnesota, NY Jets
Sunday 11 October
Washington Redskins @ Atlanta Falcons
The Redskins showed character and no shortage of courage in their come from behind victory over the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday. WR Pierre Garcon made a big time catch in traffic for the game-winning touchdown. A score which means the Redskins are tied for the lead in the NFC East with the New York Giants and the Dallas Cowboys with a 2-2 record.
Their opponents remain unbeaten after thrashing the Houston Texans in a 48-21 rout. The Atlanta Falcons are now 4-0 on the back of another outstanding performance from RB Devonta Freeman, who finished the game with three touchdowns, averaging nearly five yards per carry and adding another 81 receiving yards. It meant WR Julio Jones was held under 100 receiving yards for the first time this season with only four catches but it's clear now that the Falcons aren't reliant on just one man to shred defences.
The Redskins have managed to be competitive in games on the back of a defence which ranks in the top 10, giving up an average of 19.8 points per game. The Atlanta offence is by far the most potent they've face this season though. They're scoring 34 points per game through the first four weeks and have swept aside Washington's NFC East rivals. Expect a similar result this week as the Falcons look to sweep the division.
Pick: Atlanta Falcons
Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens
The Baltimore Ravens are on the board after securing a dramatic win in Pittsburgh. They rode their luck as Steelers kicker, Josh Scobee was guilty of missing two field goals in regulation before Justin Tucker made a 52-yard effort to win it in overtime.
RB Justin Forsett looked more like the 2014 version as he pounded the Steelers defence for 150 yards on 27 carries but the win came at a cost. The Ravens offence - already short on fire power - is now facing up to the news that veteran WR Steve Smith injured his back in that game and although being described as "week to week" will face a spell on the sidelines.
The Cleveland Browns are bottom of the AFC North with a 1-3 record but they pushed the Chargers all the way in San Diego. QB Josh McCown had a good game, throwing for 356 yards and finding TE Gary Barnidge for two touchdowns as they tied the game up at 27. The Chargers then missed a field goal attempt in the final minute but once again Cleveland proved to be their own worst enemy, caught offside allowing San Diego to retake the attempt and kick the winning field goal as time expired.
There is definitely cause for optimism in Cleveland, especially against an injury depleted Ravens side. With no real receiving threats Baltimore will have to rely on the running game and although Cleveland's run defence ranks 31st in the NFL there's never been a better time to catch the Ravens. I may have taken leave of my senses as I examine this matchup but if the Browns can limit their own mistakes, there may well be an upset on the cards.
Pick: Cleveland Browns
Seattle Seahawks @ Cincinnati Bengals
It's about time we acknowledged the Cincinnati Bengals are a very good football team and one built for success in all conditions. Everyone is aware of the danger posed by WR AJ Green but Jeremy Hill and Giovanni Bernard have combined to give the Bengals a brutal running game as well. The Bengals are averaging 128 rushing yards per game in an offence which now ranks No 1 in the NFL. Combine that with a defence ranked sixth and one which sacked Alex Smith five times in last weekend's win over the Chiefs......that is why this team sits on top of the AFC North with a 4-0 record.
This then, is an intriguing matchup against a Seahawks team which is struggling desperately on offence. Thirteen points were enough (along with a huge slice of good fortune) to scrape a win over Detroit on Monday night and their offensive line seems to get worse by the week!
It's become a regular sight to see QB Russell Wilson running for his life to conjure up plays this season and you'd expect Cincinnati's defensive front to have success against them. That being said, since Kam Chancellor returned, the Legion of Boom has been living up to their name. In their last two games, Chicago and Detroit have been limited to 18 punts, one fumble and a field goal between them!
While QB Andy Dalton has been good for the Bengals this year, you do wonder how he'll handle the Seahawks defence - comfortably the best unit Cincinnati have come up against so far.
However, this game isn't in the Pacific North West where Seattle have played their last two games and as I said earlier, this is now a very good Bengals team. A win here will reinforce that.
Pick: Cincinnati Bengals
St Louis Rams @ Green Bay Packers
The St Louis Rams are proving to be a frustrating team, which is probably reflected in their 2-2 record. One week, they can out duel the Seahawks, the next they flounder in Washington but last weekend's win in Arizona may prove to be a decisive turning point. Rookie RB Todd Gurley in only his second game ran riot - racking up a total of 146 yards on just 19 carries. That's more than Matt Forte, Carlos Hyde and Mark Ingram had combined against the Cardinals defence through the first 3 weeks! WR Tavon Austin was elusive, finishing with two touchdowns and the Rams capitalised on Arizona's turnovers, converting two of the three into touchdowns. Backed up by a fearsome defensive front, this is the blue print for the St Louis Rams to have success moving forward.
Talking of good defences, the Green Bay Packers are improving all the time. They finished with six sacks against the San Francisco 49ers. On a short week they travelled to the west coast and restricted San Francisco to just three points, capitalising on a poor 49ers offensive line and Colin Kaepernick's general lack of awareness in the pocket. It's got to the stage where an impressive display from QB Aaron Rodgers isn't really news anymore. TE Richard Rodgers is fast emerging as a genuine red zone threat for Green Bay as they improved to 4-0 and that's without RB Eddie Lacy having a big game yet in 2014.
As good as the Rams looked last week, they needed help from the Cardinals to win in the desert. The bottom line is, at Lambeau Field, Rodgers and the Packers don't make mistakes (week 13 of the 2012 season was the last time Rodgers through an interception at Lambeau)......and that's why they win this game.
Pick: Green Bay Packers
Chicago Bears @ Kansas City Chiefs
QB Jay Cutler made a surprise return from a hamstring injury to the Bears' starting line up......and engineered their first victory of the season last Sunday. After Jimmy Clausen's pedestrian performance a week earlier, this was just the boost Chicago needed in a game that went right down to the wire. True, he threw an inexplicable interception which could have cost the Bears the game but he also threw two touchdowns and when he got the ball back in his hands late in the game, he marched them down field to allow Robbie Gould to kick the winning field goal with two seconds remaining. What is apparent, is that a combination of Cutler with RB Matt Forte in the backfield makes the Bears competitive. Without Cutler, they barely have a chance.
A trip to the Kansas City Chiefs makes for an intriguing clash. Everyone raved about the Chiefs after their Week 1 pounding of the Texans but since then three straight defeats have followed, including back to back thrashings in Green Bay and Cincinnati. More worrying for the Chiefs, they didn't find the end zone against the Bengals with QB Alex Smith being sacked five times. Defensively they weren't much better as Andy Dalton torched them for 321 yards in the air while the Bengals running backs accrued 124 yards on the ground.
Back on home soil the Chiefs have a point to prove and the Bears arrive at Arrowhead, a team in transition. Kansas City will look to take advantage of the Bears' 24th rank rush defence, giving the ball to Jamaal Charles, early and often. Aligned with WR Jeremy Maclin's improved production in the past two weeks, the Chiefs should get their season back on track.
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs
New Orleans Saints @ Philadelphia Eagles
While the Saints grabbed their first win of the season in dramatic fashion, the Eagles season appears to be falling apart. QB Drew Brees found CJ Spiller for an 80-yard walk off touchdown just 13 seconds into overtime against the Dallas Cowboys - the quickest win in overtime in NFL history. It was a result the Saints badly needed, snapping a six-game losing streak at home but it shouldn't hide the fact they struggled against a Cowboys team riddled by injuries to key players.
Meanwhile Philadelphia's performances have been a mess and the cracks are beginning to show. RB DeMarco Murray had just 36 rushing yards and after the game told reporters he wasn't getting enough of the ball. Their offence ranks a lowly 28th, defensively they rank 21st. A humbling defeat by the Washington Redskins last weekend was compounded by the Eagles inability to stop a struggling Redskins offence as they marched 90 yards, chewing up five and a half minutes off the clock to score the game clinching touchdown with only 26 seconds remaining. Whatever Chip Kelly and the Eagles expected this season, this is not it. They now sit at the foot of the NFC East with a 1-3 record, having already lost twice to divisional rivals.
That being said, the New Orleans Saints are not a good team right now and a home fixture against them represents a real opportunity to get Philadelphia's season back on track. Should they lose this game though.....this Eagles team may implode!
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Pick: Philadelphia Eagles
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Jaguars could......and the Jaguars should now be ahead of the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC South with a 2-2 record. Instead, they're a game and a half back having blown not one, but two opportunities to win the game in Indianapolis. They played well on Sunday against a Colts side without injured QB Andrew Luck but were left to rue Jason Myers' missed 53 yard field goal attempt at the end of regulation and then he missed a 49 yard attempt to win it in overtime. The blowout defeat in New England aside, this Jaguars team have been competitive in every other game this season but right now they're struggling to get over the finish line.
The same cannot be said of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The No 1 overall draft pick this year, QB Jameis Winston threw another four interceptions against Carolina - that's seven so far this season - with one being returned for a touchdown as the Bucs went down 37-23. What's quickly becoming evident is that when Winston doesn't play well, neither do the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Only Chicago and Kansas City are giving up more points than the Bucs' average of 29.3 per game this season. Aligned with an offence that ranks 22nd in the NFL, this is not a recipe for success.
The Jaguars haven't exactly been prolific themselves this season with an offence scoring fewer than 16 points per game but they'll hope they can change that in this contest. If they don't, Gus Bradley's seat will start to warm up.
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars
Buffalo Bills @ Tennessee Titans
No one doubts the talent on this Buffalo Bills roster but their results have been erratic through the first four weeks. Sunday's defeat by the New York Giants followed an emphatic win in Miami. Admittedly, the Bills were without injured star RB LeSean McCoy and WR Sammy Watkins but there can be no excuses for accruing 17 penalties - a lack of discipline which effectively handed the game to the Giants who led 16-3 at half-time. Rookie RB Karlos Williams could only manage 40 yards on 18 carries and it wasn't until the second half that QB Tyrod Taylor got the Bills offence moving.
The Titans have had two weeks to prepare for the Bills, having suffered back to back defeats heading into their bye week. It should have given them time to notice that the common denominator in wins for the Patriots and Giants over Buffalo was the speed with which they passed the ball. Eli Manning averaged 1.79 seconds per pass attempt while Tom Brady averaged 1.98 seconds, largely negating the Bills pass rush. Of course both of those teams have experienced, Super Bowl winning quarterbacks while the Titans have rookie Marcus Mariota under centre. No doubt Rex Ryan will give Mariota some looks defensively that the rookie quarterback won't have seen before and it will be hugely impressive if Mariota is able to lead his side to victory. On this occasion though experience should prevail.
Pick: Buffalo Bills
Arizona Cardinals @ Detroit Lions
As unexpected as Arizona's defeat to the St Louis Rams was last week, it maybe a blessing in disguise. It certainly tapped the breaks on the hype surrounding this team over the opening few weeks of the season. The Cardinals failed to convert red zone opportunities into touchdowns against the Rams and also gave away costly turnovers - two of which were turned into touchdowns. A trip to Detroit will pose its own problems but Arizona's seventh ranked defence will like their chances against a Lions offence which averages just 16.5 points per game this season.
For Detroit, preparations won't have been helped by the short week or the poor record for teams who've faced the Seattle Seahawks a week earlier. This season only the Packers have followed up with a win. Considering the controversial ending to Detroit's game in Seattle and the no call that cost them a shot at winning the game from the one yard line which means they're now 0-4, few will rate their chances of bouncing back against the Cardinals. If they are to win, the Lions will have to produce a better performance than anything we've seen from them this season.
Pick: Arizona Cardinals
New England Patriots @ Dallas Cowboys
If there's one game which looks a mismatch on paper this week, it has to be this one. When it was first slated as a Week 5 contest, it was seen as a possible game of the week but with Dallas missing QB Tony Romo, WR Dez Bryant and a number of defensive players, they've looked a pale shadow of the team which claimed the NFC East with a 12-4 record last year. At least this week they welcome back DE Greg Hardy and LB Rolando McClain from four-game suspensions and appear optimistic they'll have LB Sean Lee available after he suffered a concussion in the loss in New Orleans.
That said, without their two star players on offence they've struggled mightily and a running game that was so potent 12 months ago has disappeared. Against both Atlanta and New Orleans they were able to get big gains early but after runs of 45 yards from Lance Dunbar, and 14 yards each from Joseph Randle and Darren McFadden, the Cowboys other 25 rushing attempts against the Saints netted them a poultry 42 yards.
All of this does not bode well when facing the reigning Super Bowl champions - the juggernaut that is the New England Patriots. TE Rob Gronkowski has been nigh on unstoppable in their first three games. Only Larry Fitzgerald has more than his four TD receptions this season. Tom Brady has been in MVP form in each of their three wins, steering an offensive unit which ranks first in points scored, averaging over 39 points per game. That's complimented by the league's number 3 ranked defence.
To their credit, Dallas have put themselves in a position to win both games since Romo broke his collarbone but have lost on each occasion. That means backup quarterback Brandon Weeden is now 0-10 in his last 10 starts. Expect that to become 0-11 on Sunday.
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Pick: New England Patriots
Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders
An AFC West battle which is garnering more interest than might have been expected when the schedule was originally published. That's due in no small part to the improved play of a young Oakland Raiders side. They had a third straight win in their grasp on Sunday, only to see it wrenched away by a 49 yard Robbie Gould field goal in Chicago. Still, quarterback Derek Carr's connection with rookie WR Amari Cooper continues to improve as he found him for another impressive touchdown and despite the defeat they find themselves tied with the San Diego Chargers with a 2-2 record. This weekend's opposition is a step up in class though.
The Broncos defence continues to impress. They're the second ranked unit in the NFL and rank second in points allowed (17.3 per game). At the moment that is more than compensating for an offence which isn't yet firing on all cylinders and ranks a lowly 26th overall. Yet after four games they remain undefeated and after ripping off a 72 yard TD run, it's beginning to look as if Ronnie Hillman is becoming the favoured running back for the Broncos. Peyton Manning threw another two interceptions in the 23-20 win over Minnesota, which is a cause for concern but it would be a big surprise - and a big scalp for Oakland - if the Raiders were able to come out on top in this one.
Pick: Denver Broncos
Monday 12 October
San Francisco 49ers @ New York Giants
The 49ers travel from coast to coast to face the Giants, already looking like a team destined to be in the mix for the first overall pick in the 2016 draft. Last weekend their offensive line couldn't protect QB Colin Kaepernick against the Green Bay Packers, who sacked him six times. San Francisco's offence ranks 30th overall and is dead last in points scored, scoring just 12 points per game this season. That just isn't enough to win games in the NFL.
The New York Giants could easily be undefeated. As it is, they slipped to an 0-2 start on the back of poor game management but have rallied in the past two weeks to beat the Washington Redskins and more impressively, win in Buffalo. The Giants continue to be frustratingly erratic though, playing well in parts but then opening the door to their opponents. Last Sunday they took a 16-3 lead into half time but led by just one score in the fourth quarter before Rashad Jennings finally put the game away.
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Even with that inconsistency, it's tough to see this 49ers team putting four good quarters of football together, even tougher to see them winning on the road in New York.
Pick: New York Giants
Tuesday 13 October
Pittsburgh Steelers @ San Diego Chargers
Week 5 finishes with a matchup which is hugely important to both sides. Both come into this game with a 2-2 record and both know the value of a win to stay in touch with their division leaders.
The San Diego Chargers might consider themselves a little fortunate to get by the Cleveland Browns last weekend but after two straight defeats it was a win they badly needed. This week they are strengthened by the return of veteran TE Antonio Gates following a four-game suspension and are only too well aware that this Pittsburgh Steelers side aren't quite the same potent threat without QB Ben Roethlisberger in the side.
The Steelers will once again rely heavily on running the football for success. It was an effective formula against the Baltimore Ravens when Le'Veon Bell put the team on his back to finish with 129 rushing yards and a touchdown. Backup QB Michael Vick didn't turn the ball over but was inaccurate on several passing attempts. Yet, the Steelers would have almost certainly won the game but for Josh Scobee missing two field goal attempts in regulation. Misses that resulted in him being cut, Chris Boswell has been signed to replace him.
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Despite those problems, don't write off Pittsburgh in this contest as the Chargers are heavily reliant on QB Phillip Rivers. More so, following last weekend's victory where they lost receiving duo, Steve Johnson (hamstring) and Malcolm Floyd (concussion). By the end of the game they down to just two starters on their offensive line as well. This contest may well come down to which team stays healthier on the day.
Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers
Watch Colts @ Texans, Saints @ Eagles, Patriots @ Cowboys, 49ers @ Giants and Steelers @ Chargers on Sky Sports this weekend with Red Zone coverage on the red button.
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