Thursday 22 October 2015 11:42, UK
Sky Sports expert Richard Graves makes his predictions ahead of another exciting round of games in Week 7.
The Buffalo Bills are preparing for a Wembley showdown with the Jacksonville Jaguars, while during a packed US schedule, the New England Patriots will put their unbeaten record on the line against the New York Jets.
Byes: Chicago, Cincinnati, Denver, Green Bay
Friday October 22
Serious questions are being asked about the Seattle Seahawks and their ability to close out games. For the second straight week they saw a two-score lead slip from their grasp in the fourth quarter. For a second straight week a winning position was surrendered to defeat as a Cam Newton inspired Carolina Panthers put together back to back 80-yard touchdown drives to clinch the game. Just as concerning will be the Seahawks' inability to deal with a tight end. Last week it was Cincinnati's Tyler Eifert who terrorised them, this time it was Greg Olsen who finished the game with 131 receiving yards and the game winning touchdown.
The 49ers have cause for optimism. After a promising effort, albeit in a losing cause in New York, last weekend they took care of the Ravens. Once again quarterback Colin Kaepernick showed a nice touch on some of his passes - including a 76-yard touchdown pass to Torrey Smith but there were also moments where he could have put his team in trouble. The win snapped a four-game losing streak and means San Francisco sit just a game behind Seattle in the NFC West, heading into this week's clash.
This isn't the battle between two physical, dominant defences that it was just a couple of years ago but there's no love lost between the two sides. The 49ers possess the NFL's worst scoring offence, averaging fewer than 17 points per game while their defence has just nine sacks in six games. For all of their recent problems, the Seahawks are still fourth in overall defence, giving up 319.5 yards per game, 11th in scoring defence - giving up 20.8 points per game and Marshawn Lynch definitely appeared to have some of his old burst back against Carolina. Enough to suggest the Seahawks leave the Bay Area with the W.
Pick: Seattle Seahawks
Sunday October 25
The second game in this year's International Series is between the Buffalo Bills, who are proving to be frustratingly erratic and the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are enduring another disappointing campaign.
The Bills got wide receiver Sammy Watkins and running back LeSean McCoy back last weekend and both found the end zone but Watkins sprained an ankle in the process of scoring and his status remains up in the air. As does that of quarterback Tyrod Taylor, who sat out the defeat to the Bengals with a strained knee ligament but the Bills remain hopeful he'll be available at Wembley. Buffalo's defensive front has been surprisingly disappointing so far. Last season they led the league in sacks, this year they have just nine, putting them among the league's bottom 10 teams. It's an area they are keen to address.
Meanwhile a season which began full of optimism for a young Jacksonville Jaguars team is turning into a familiar story. They're 1-5 through six games and the problem is pretty obvious. They can't stop opponents scoring, giving up more than 29 points per game (only Tampa Bay and Chicago have worse records). Offensively, they're just as bad, scoring less than 19 points per game (only the Rams and the 49ers score fewer points).
Jacksonville have endured bad back-to-back defeats against the Buccaneers and the Texans while the Bills have followed up each win this season with a loss. Thankfully for Buffalo that record suggests they're due to win this weekend. The Jaguars have lost both of their previous visits to Wembley, this week the Bills will make it three in a row.
Pick: Buffalo Bills
The Vikings narrowly edged out an injury-depleted Kansas City Chiefs team in a low-scoring encounter last weekend but it was a win which leaves them clear in second place in the NFC North with a 3-2 record.
While they were doing that, the Detroit Lions were busy winning their first game of the year. They got their share of luck, profiting from a hugely contentious touchdown call to wide receiver Golden Tate but the way they won the game in overtime was a thing of beauty. Quarterback Matthew Stafford throwing a deep jump ball down field with wide receiver Calvin Johnson plucking it out of the air ahead of a defender.....it was like old times in Detroit as it led to the game-winning field goal. The Lions are up and running!
That being said, those kind of plays have been all too rare since Jim Caldwell became head coach at the start of last season and the result is that Detroit are scoring just 20 points per game - tied for 26th in the NFL. The Vikings are worse, averaging just 19.2 points per game but with Adrian Peterson in the backfield they run the ball better and are able to control the clock as a result. Minnesota are gaining 126 yards per game on the ground (sixth). In contrast Detroit's running game is the worst in the league, averaging just 66.5 yards per game. That's a big discrepancy. Add into the equation Detroit's league worst minus eight turnover differential and - unless they can make a few more big plays - it's tough to see how they beat the Vikings.
Pick: Minnesota Vikings
The Saints got a huge divisional win last week to end Atlanta's perfect start while the Colts' defeat to the Patriots was sprinkled with a degree of farce. Snapping the ball with only two players lined up over it, blocking three Patriots, while every other Colts player was flanked out wide is not a recipe for success and so it proved as Indianapolis slipped to a 34-27 loss and a record of 3-3.
New Orleans were able to capitalise on Atlanta errors at key moments to secure only their second win of the season but it's a win which keeps their season alive. Tight end Ben Watson had a huge night, looking more like Jimmy Graham as he finished with 10 catches for 127 yards and a touchdown. Quarterback Drew Brees threw for 312 yards and two touchdowns while the much-maligned Saints defence recovered three fumbles.
Neither team has been convincing on defence this year, both rank in the bottom half of the league in points allowed. Offensively, they've both been misfiring as well, ranking in the bottom half of the league in points scored. The Saints have committed 10 turnovers in six games while the Colts have committed 12!
All of which suggests this won't be a game for the purists. However, there is likely to be drama and as disappointing as Indianapolis have been, they do tend to beat bad teams. Despite their big win over the Falcons, the 2015 New Orleans Saints are not a good team. They are 0-2 on the road this season.......Indianapolis will make it 0-3.
Pick: Indianapolis Colts
The Kansas City Chiefs struggled mightily to move the ball without injured star running back Jamaal Charles. They netted just 51 yards and were penalised for 50 yards in the first half. Although quarterback Alex Smith was better in the second half, the Chiefs were only able to score one touchdown as they slipped to 1-5 in Minnesota.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have also had their fair share of injury problems but in quarterback Ben Roethlisberger's continued absence they recorded back-to-back wins in less than a week to improve to 4-2 in the AFC North.
What made this win even more impressive? It was done on the arm of Landry Jones after Michael Vick injured his hamstring and the Steelers condemned the high flying Arizona Cardinals to a 25-13 defeat, shutting down the NFL's second highest scoring offence.
The Steelers won't want to have to rely on Jones again though if they can help it. With Vick already confirming he's out this week, the question is would the Steelers be willing to risk Big Ben against a defensive front which likes to get after the passer?
Whatever the decision at quarterback, the Steelers have Le'Veon Bell to rely on in the backfield. The Chiefs inability to get the ball into the end zone is a real problem and a huge defensive effort will be needed to beat the Steelers.
Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers
This is a contest between two teams who got much-needed wins on the road last week. While the Texans won at AFC South rivals Jacksonville, the Miami Dolphins kicked off interim head coach Dan Campbell's tenure with an impressive win in Tennessee.
Quarterback Bryan Hoyer, restored to the starting role, had an impressive day, throwing for 293 yards and three touchdowns - all of which came on third down plays. Wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins hauled in two of them and leads the league with 726 receiving yards. It means, with a 2-4 record, amazingly the Texans are just a game behind the division leading Colts!
Miami effectively kept their season alive and they looked a different team as they romped to a 38-10 win over the Titans. Their expensively assembled defence came to play. Prior to this game, they'd mustered just one sack all season, last weekend they took Marcus Mariota down six times! They intercepted him twice more. Offensively their running game found some pep as well as they gained more yards on the ground than in their previous four games combined. Both Jarvis Landry and Lamar Miller scored on the ground and Miller finished with 113 rushing yards.
With a 2-3 record, the Dolphins are still rooted to the foot of the AFC East but on last weekend's evidence, this is the team we expected to see from Week 1. Houston's win means their season remains very much alive as well but it came against the Jags.....and this Dolphins team is a much better unit than the one which lost in Jacksonville in Week 2.
Pick: Miami Dolphins
This is the game of Week 7. The undefeated New England Patriots and their No 1 ranked scoring offence, averaging 36.6 points per game against the New York Jets and their No 1 defence. A unit which ranks third in rushing yards allowed (82.6), second in passing yards allowed (186.6) and first in points allowed (15). All of this and the small matter of a divisional win on the line.
There's no doubt the reason, in part, why Jets quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has enjoyed so much success this season is because he's had a defence which has allowed him to play from in front. The one occasion when the Jets had to play from behind, they suffered their only loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. The question is do they have enough to go blow for blow with Tom Brady and the New England Patriots?
In Chris Ivory, the Jets have a running back with the third most rushing yards this season (460). Brandon Marshall is a wide receiver with four successive 100+ receiving yard games and their defence has earned this team a plus five turnover differential. Without doubt there's enough talent on this team but facing them is a team which just keeps on winning.
Aside from the fact New England are the reigning Super Bowl champions, their defence has helped them to a plus four turnover differential. Tight end Rob Gronkowski is the most dominant player in his position and has five touchdowns in as many games. Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola and Dion Lewis are all live wire threats in open space and then there's the man who pulls all the strings at quarterback, Tom Brady. The interception he threw in Indianapolis was his first of the year....he rarely gives the ball away.
With so many pieces on the field for both sides, this is a mouth-watering clash. If the New York Jets can get the win, it'll be a huge statement from a team with designs on going deep into the post season. However there's no escaping the fact that New England are 5-0, they're playing at home and know all about winning the big game. This is a big game!
Pick: New England Patriots
The St Louis Rams are fresh off a bye week while the Cleveland Browns will no doubt be reflecting on how they let Denver off the hook last weekend. Having snatched an overtime win in Baltimore the week before, the stage once again was set for a dramatic overtime win, knocking off the undefeated Broncos but their offence couldn't capitalise on a turnover at midfield and Denver drove for the game-winning field goal.
It was a huge anti-climax after a performance which saw them rally from 16-7 down in the fourth quarter and intercept Peyton Manning three times. Not forgetting they were playing against the NFL's top defence. In the clutch moments though, they couldn't finish the job. That being said, the Cleveland Browns have now strung together three successive impressive performances.
This week they come up against another strong defensive front in the St Louis Rams and everyone is keen to see if rookie RB Todd Gurley can continue to show the impressive form he produced against Arizona and Green Bay heading into the bye week. There's a suggestion that the St Louis Rams are becoming a competitive force once again. They already have wins over Seattle and Arizona this year and on the back of Gurley's strong running, did enough to cause the Packers problems in Green Bay and picked off Aaron Rodgers twice. If they are turning a corner, this is a game they need to be winning.
Pick: St Louis Rams
The Atlanta Falcons remain top of the NFC South but they are no longer undefeated after suffering a shock defeat to division rivals, the New Orleans Saints last week. It was a defeat largely of their own making. They had a punt blocked and recovered for a touchdown and lost two fumbles inside the red zone. On the back of a shaky performance a week earlier against the Redskins, head coach Dan Quinn will hope this serves as a wake up call to his team. He'll also hope the 10 days between games has given star wide receiver Julio Jones the extra time needed to get healthy after being bothered by hamstring and toe problems. He's been kept quiet in both of their last two games but this weekend faces a tough matchup against a Titans team which leads the league in passing defence, giving up just 184 yards per game.
However, that is as good as it gets for the Tennessee Titans. Since an opening day win over the Buccaneers, Tennessee have lost four in a row and after being sacked six times by a rejuvenated Miami Dolphins defence last weekend, rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota is unlikely to play. He's dealing with a sprained MCL following a low hit by Dolphins defensive end Olivier Vernon - a play which did not impress Titans head coach Ken Whisenhunt. It means if Mariota can't go, Zach Mettenberger is in line to start against the Falcons and that poses its own problems.
Atlanta have effectively taken away their opponents rushing game this season. The Falcons have the top ranked rushing defence, giving up just 78.8 yards per game. While on offence Devonta Freeman is second only to Matt Forte in rushing yards (505) and leads the league in touchdowns (10). Add into the equation, the Titans defence ranks a lowly 28th against the run, giving up 129.6 yards per game.....the Falcons should pick up a bounce back win in Tennessee.
Pick: Atlanta Falcons
The Buccaneers have had a bye week to bask in the glory of a win over the Jacksonville Jaguars while the Redskins suffered a defeat at the New York Jets. It was a result which gave ammunition to those who'd like to see a change at quarterback after Kirk Cousins threw two more interceptions. He's thrown eight in six games this season but for now, head coach Jay Gruden is sticking by him.
All of which makes this a big game for Cousins, a big game for Gruden and a big game for the 2-4 Redskins, who are still very much in battle for the NFC East.
It's also a big game for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They hold a 2-3 record and while Atlanta and Carolina may be battling it out for the title in the NFC South, the Buccaneers are battling to remain above the 2-4 New Orleans Saints.
The Achilles heel for both these teams this season has been turnovers. The Redskins have given the ball away 11 times, the Buccaneers 10. While rookie QB Jameis Winston has shown flashes of his play making ability, his seven interceptions have also hurt his team. However, as with games against the Jaguars and Saints, the Redskins are the type of opposition where his playmaking ability can be the difference. On the road, Winston can account for Washington and maybe help instigate the change those dissenting voices are calling for.
Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Oakland Raiders are coming off a bye week while the San Diego Chargers went blow for blow with the Green Bay Packers but ultimately came up short. As has often been the case this season, quarterback Philip Rivers led from the front, setting franchise records in passing yards (503), completions (43) and attempts (65), including 2 touchdowns without an interception. As it turned out, San Diego needed more.
The Chargers have now lost two in a row and slipped to a 2-4 record - half a game behind this weekend's opponents in this AFC West. It's the first time this season they'll have met a divisional rival and it's a game they'll feel they have to win. Undoubtedly a concern will be their offence. Strange when you consider it's the league's leading unit, gaining 433 yards per game but that production is not being translated to points on the scoreboard where they've averaged 22.7 points through six games this season.
Oakland have roughly averaged one point per game less but their 2-3 record has them in second place in their division and the early season form of quarterback Derek Carr and wide receiver Amari Cooper has given plenty of cause for optimism. If they could leave San Diego with a win, the Raiders' success-starved fan base would start believing the corner has been well and truly turned. However, defensively they have had their problems this year. They rank in the league's bottom seven and have lost their defensive leader Justin Tuck to injury. The Raiders have had problems defending opposing tight ends and with Antonio Gates alongside Ladarius Green, that's a weakness the Chargers will seek to exploit.
Pick: San Diego Chargers
It's been all change in Dallas during their bye week. After losing three games in a row. QB Brandon Weeden has been benched in favour of Matt Cassel. Running back Christine Michael has been taking reps with the first team in practice ahead of Joseph Randle and rookie guard, La'el Collins has replaced Ron Leary in the offensive line. Owner Jerry Jones appears optimistic star receiver Dez Bryant could return after six weeks out with a broken foot but the coaching staff appear much more cautious. Either way, Dallas are clearly targeting this as a game they have to win to keep their play-off hopes alive.
The Giants lost their first two games this season (including an opening weekend loss in Dallas) but then won three in a row. If they'd beaten the Eagles on Monday night they'd have taken a firm grip on the NFC East. Instead Eli Manning threw two interceptions and running back Rashad Jennings lost a fumble as Big Blue went down in Philadelphia. It all means just one win separates all four teams in the division and injuries are beginning to take their toll.
Wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr played on Monday night despite barely practising all week and continues to nurse a tight hamstring while fellow wideout Victor Cruz (calf) still hasn't seen the field this season. Throw into the equation the loss of cornerback Prince Amukamara and now there's reason to for the Cowboys to believe they can compete against a team that, like them, is also below full strength.
The New York Giants only have a short week to prepare. They haven't beaten the Cowboys in their last five encounters and are just 1-10 against teams in the NFC East in their last 11 divisional games. As improbable as it might sound for a banged up Dallas Cowboys team, a fully fit Cowboys pass rush may prove too much for the Giants offence to handle and there's a real chance Dallas may leave the Big Apple with a big win!
Pick: Dallas Cowboys
Monday October 26
Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers - Live on Sky Sports 3 from 12.10am
In the space of two weeks the Philadelphia Eagles have won two games, going from last place in the NFC East to a tie for first. Don't let recent form deceive you though. Quarterback Sam Bradford continues to be awful! A poor New Orleans Saints side let Bradford off the hook two weeks ago - despite intercepting him twice in the red zone - and on Monday night he managed to get away with throwing three interceptions as the Eagles came out on top against the Giants.
Philadelphia have committed 14 turnovers this season - only Detroit have a worse record (18). Their defence has been their saviour, forcing 16 turnovers of their own; however the Carolina Panthers are not nearly so generous!
The Panthers lead the league with a plus six turnover differential and have a defence to be feared. They rank seventh in overall defence, seventh in points allowed (18.8) and despite seemingly lacking offensive weapons, quarterback Cam Newton is in the best form of his career. Everyone knows about his playmaking ability with his legs but last Sunday he looked like a pocket passer against Seattle as he led the Panthers on back-to-back 80-yard touchdown drives in their final two possessions to beat the Seahawks in their own back yard!
DeMarco Murray had a 109-yard rushing yard game in the win over the Giants but he won't enjoy the same success against Carolina. That means the game will be put in Sam Bradford's hands and when that's the case, bad things happen.
Did I mention the Panthers are undefeated?
Pick: Carolina Panthers
Tuesday October 27
The season is unravelling in Baltimore. One win this season and five defeats tells its own story. The embarrassment of losing at home to Cleveland was followed up with defeat in San Francisco, despite veteran wide receiver Steve Smith playing with several fractures in his back!
It wasn't a good weekend either for the Arizona Cardinals, who suffered their second defeat and for the second time this season, they only had themselves to blame. Quarterback Carson Palmer threw two interceptions while wide receiver John Brown lost a fumble in a game which appeared set up for a Cardinals win as Michael Vick (himself playing for the injured Ben Roethlisberger) was forced out with a hamstring injury and replaced by Landry Jones. Arizona's previously rampant offence was held to just 13 points while Landry threw two touchdowns to steer the Steelers to a 25-13 win.
The truth though is the Ravens are not as good as the Steelers. Baltimore rank 27th in points allowed (27 per game). Arizona are second in points scoring (33.8). Cardinals running back Chris Johnson has the NFL's fifth most rushing yards this season with 445 and is averaging 4.8 yards per carry. Wide receiver Michael Floyd is fit again, complementing Larry Fitzgerald and John Brown AND this game will be played in the desert. If Baltimore were somehow able to engineer a win here, it may well be the biggest upset of the first seven weeks!
Pick: Arizona Cardinals
