Good Friday tips: Jamie Lynch's selections on All-Weather Finals Day on Sky Sports Racing
All-Weather Finals Day returns to Newcastle with plenty of prize money up for grabs alongside the champion jockey crown; Lingfield also host an excellent card with more action from Bath
Thursday 6 April 2023 17:02, UK
Sky Sports Racing expert Jamie Lynch returns to take aim at a lucrative Good Friday with meetings at Newcastle, Lingfield and Bath.
VEGA SICILIA
1.30 Lingfield - BetUK All-Weather Vase Apprentice Handicap
Is Vega Sicilia unlucky or lucky? He's unlucky for the well-handicapped horses to whom he's finished second on his last three starts, but in a sense he's lucky that he's not already over-qualified for this rich race worth more than the last three put together, with the defeats keeping his mark within the 0-85 bracket, although there's a case for saying he could, and maybe should, be quite a bit higher.
That's because of how his form has worked out.
At Southwell and Newcastle he chased home Nolton Cross and Barenboim respectively, a pair who are available at single-figure odds for the main-event Marathon (2.25 Newcastle), and in between at Lingfield he failed by just ¾ length to catch Halic, who won again subsequently and goes for the hat-trick at Bath (2.05).
Vega Sicilia has gone up a mere 2lb for Newcastle last time when no less than 9½ lengths clear of the third, none other than Buxted Too, who immediately rebounded from that to bag his fifth win of the year.
From any and every angle, Vega Sicilia looks very well treated off 82, never mind the 5lb claim by Connor Planas who rode a double on Lincoln Day. Back to the concept of luck, he'll need some around Lingfield the way he's ridden, especially in a field of this size, but his frequently-franked form puts him in a position of power.
SHAQUILLE
1.50 Newcastle - talkSPORT All-Weather 3 Year Old Championships Conditions Stakes
Thanks to the TPD-powered data on the attheraces.com platform, we are able to analyse the hows and whys of performance with more clarity and certainty than ever before.
The finishing speed percentage of the Wolverhampton race won by Shaquille in early-December was 98.5 per cent, telling of a fairly fast gallop and a slow-ish finish, the sort of scenario which tends to favour the closers who save their energy by sitting out of the heat of the front end of the field formation.
The second and third home did indeed come from the second half of the field, but Shaquille was towards the teeth of the race and kept going, a testament to his talent.
He has been beaten only once in his four-race career, in the Group 3 Acomb on only his second start, and because Wolverhampton was a qualifier, he's had the luxury of a break ahead of this assignment, therefore packing more potential than most in the line-up.
FOUR ADAAY
2.15 Bath - Truespeed Home Broadband Fillies' Handicap
The punchy prize-money at Bath has generated a series of handicaps which are about as good as it gets for the level at which they're pitched, hard to get in and harder still to find a winner, but there are some significant dots to join for Four Adaay in the 5f sprint (2.15).
Firstly, there's the backdrop of the shrewd stable, that of Rod Millman, already with 11 successes to his name in 2023, and he's had a winner and two seconds with his last three runners in this very race at Bath.
Four Adaay has been absent since October, but she won first time out as a three-year-old and returns off her lowest mark for two years, meaning she can drop to this 0-70 at its ceiling rating - no coincidence that her appearance in lesser company has been saved for this high-value card, at a track she has run well at in the past (runner-up on last visit in 2020).
A low draw is a positive, as is the fact she's a winner on soft ground, and all in all there's more to her than meets the eye, having a class edge on her rivals if she's ready to roll, which her stable's targeting of the race suggests she will be.
BASE NOTE
3.00 Newcastle - BetUK All-Weather Easter Classic Middle Distance Championships Conditions Stakes
Amid all the positivity about the finances and fields to make Good Friday a meaningful racing day for all layers of the horse population, there is one problematic part that can't be dressed up: it's one of the weakest - and perhaps the weakest - renewals of the Easter Classic we have ever seen.
There's no competing with the increased options and offerings in the Middle East around this time of year, so maybe the qualification process needs revisiting for this specific division, for fresh impetus, because two journeymen seven-year-olds from the same stable topping the market isn't a good look. But it's maybe a good opportunity for a bet.
Neither Forest Of Dean nor Harrovian are going to scare the opposition, or tempt the heavy-hitters, yet they're taking out about 65 per cent of the market. And the same goes for the current third in the betting, the eight-year-old Freescape, who's 0/18 outside of Ireland.
By comparison, Base Note has youth on his side and is probably still getting better, more so than last time's luckless run would suggest, and is already squaring up to Forest Of Dean and Harrovian on official ratings - only 3lb and 4lb behind them respectively.
He's dropping back down from 1m4f but that distorts the facts, as the interesting thing about Base Note is that he's very good in tactical races, able to throw in a sub 11-second furlong at will, which is a useful weapon to deploy in a race like this that is liable to be a dash for the cash.
His acceleration is the reason he has won four times at Wolverhampton and Lingfield combined, and such a turn of foot may just be the tool for this job - very much a race up for grabs.
DIDEROT
3.50 Lingfield - BetUK All-Weather Vase Middle Distance Handicap
Having started with a bang for James Ferguson 15 months ago, Diderot has not won since - albeit hardly standing still placing six times, and often his own worst enemy with his headstrong nature - but if you could design a race for him, this would be it.
The combination of Lingfield, a low draw and a double-figure field stacked with signed-on speed is the perfect storm for Diderot, who has a chance to be buried by regular rider Danny Muscutt before exploding in the straight.
Despite the small field and slow pace at Chelmsford last time, he was beaten only by the rampant Zealot, who was on course for the Easter Classic until a late setback this week.
Everything is in place, at last, for Diderot to show how good he really is, which I think is a level above this 0-95 company.
Watch every race from Bath, Lingfield and Newcastle's All-Weather Championships Finals Day live on Sky Sports Racing (Sky 415 | Virgin 535) on Friday April 7.
