Tommie Beau backed for Newcastle four-mile marathon; Pembroke fancied in Grade Two Novices' contest at Kempton; Lord North tipped to land back-to-back Winter Derbies
Friday 23 February 2024 18:33, UK
High-class action is the theme across Britain for Saturday's racing, and Declan Rix has four runners you should keep onside for the meetings at Southwell, Newcastle and Kempton.
2.08 Newcastle - Betting.Bet Eider Handicap Chase (Class 2) (5yo+) - 4m1f56y
A field of 13 go to post for this £41,624-to-the-winner prize with many holding chances over an extreme trip. The smooth-travelling and sound-jumping Fenland Tiger was high on my list, but with nine-year-olds winning six of the last nine renewals of the Eider, I sided with the year older Tommie Beau (8/1).
Seamus Mullins's inmate has been in terrific form of late, producing form figures of 112 in his most recent efforts. Those two victories came in Nationals, namely the Durham and Southern versions while last time out, he was a gallant second in the Sussex National when carrying 12st 1lb.
A feature in his races this season has been a lovely controlled way of going, coupled with accurate jumping. Both of those skills will be needed on Saturday over the extreme trip with 24 fences to negotiate.
Under 11st 10lb, this will be no easy assignment, but the classier horses to the top of the weights tend to do well in the Eider, as do nine-year-olds. Tommie Beau's recent form is a big plus at least while the Seamus Mullins yard are going nicely at present.
With bookmakers offering four and five places, Tommie Beau rates as a solid each-way play.
2.27 Kempton - Coral Pendil Novices' Chase (Grade 2) (5yo+) - 2m4f110y
None of this sextet can entirely be ruled out in what is another competitive Saturday contest. While the case, I'm keen on Pembroke (5/1) to continue the good recent form of the Skelton yard, with the step back up to two-and-a-half miles looking a major plus.
The son of Blue Bresil was considered good enough to take in last season's Grade 1 Top Novices' Hurdle the Aintree Grand National meeting, acquitting himself nicely in finishing fifth behind Inthepocket. Given his physique, however, the seven-year-old had the potential to be an even better chaser.
Pembroke has indeed taken to fences well this season and overall, has jumped well. His last-time-out third to Cheltenham Arkle hopefuls JPR One and Matata was a career-best and a fair effort trying to concede that pair 3lb over a trip that is now possibly sharp enough.
Saturday's step up to two-miles and four looks a good move, as does getting back on a flatter track given he didn't handle the turn into Lingfield's straight too well last time out. Carrying a penalty makes his life tougher, but this looks an easier Grade Two than the Lightning.
3.20 Southwell - BetUK Winter Derby Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (4yo+) - 1m3f23y
Lord North (13/8) won't have the companionship of ownermate/stablemate Harrovian to do his pacemaking in search of a second Winter Derby on the bounce, but I hope a lack of pace won't stop the classy eight-year-old.
The return to a more galloping track over a furlong further hopefully offsets those concerns as Southwell hosts its first Winter Derby ever, seeing the race switch away from the tight, left-handed turns of Lingfield.
The John & Thady Gosden-trained horse has shown his best form over 9f and 10f throughout his career, but he showed in the 2020 Breeders' Cup, he is capable of running to a high level over 12f so I can't see the extended 11f distance causing any issues.
Fitness is likely to be a bigger concern, but I hope it's a case of class prevailing. How the son of Dubawi parades, goes to post and the late market will guide us further.
3.37 Kempton - Coral Trophy Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (5yo+) - 3m
The recent rain at Kempton will have a significant bearing on this Premier Handicap and it looks like it will play into the hands of Blackjack Magic (5/1).
A good number of those declared would prefer much better ground and/or have stamina doubts over this trip. On the other, Anthony Honeyball's inmate has shown himself to be very much at home on going with plenty of juice in it, while his stamina is assured.
We saw all the above this very season too, with a good success in the Badger Beer at Wincanton, form which looks even better now thanks to the recent success of Threeunderthrufive. Blackjack Magic's two most recent efforts at Ascot and Sandown have been solid, no more, but the two runs came on good ground and you get the feeling he will be much happier on Saturday's slower surface.
This should allow him to travel a bit sweeter, slow everything down and hopefully help his jumping. He can make a mistake, we've seen that at Ascot and Sandown, but overall, he is pretty solid in this department.
It's interesting connections reach for first-time headgear, suggesting he hasn't been concentrating or has been saving a bit for himself. I got that impression last time out at Sandown, but to be fair to the son of Black Sam Bellamy, he may just have been in top gear given the fast conditions.
Should the blinkers get even more out of Blackjack Magic, he looks a massive player in a race nine-year-olds have had plenty of recent success in.
