GN: Video form guide
Monday 6 April 2015 13:19, UK
Last year's renewal of the Crabbie's Grand National is the first port of call, with six of the first seven home in 2014 set to return including winner Pineau De Re, runner-up Balthazar King and the hotly-fancied Rocky Creek, who could manage only fifth 12 months ago.
Other races under the spotlight include two more 'Nationals' from last season, the Irish version won by A P McCoy's mount Shutthefrontdoor, as well as the 2014 Hennessy at Newbury, which contained five Aintree contenders.
The Becher Chase-Grand National double isn't a common feat, but Amberleigh House and Silver Birch managed it and that will provide hope for this year's Becher hero - the remarkable veteran Oscar Time.
There are traditional trials from Haydock and Punchestown, while Kempton's BetBright Chase is well worth another look before placing your bets on the big one itself.
Last year's National winner had run at the Cheltenham Festival in preparation and here we run the rule over the Gold Cup, the big three-mile handicap on the first day, as well as the four-miler, won in fine style this season by Irish challenger Cause Of Causes.
Crabbie's Grand National, Aintree, 4m 3 1/2f - April 5
1st Pineau De Re 25/1
2nd Balthazar King 14/1
4th Alvarado 33/1
5th Rocky Creek 16/1
6th Chance Du Roy 33/1
7th Monbeg Dude 16/1
8th Raz De Maree
12th The Package
14th Across The Bay
UR The Rainbow Hunter
Analysis: Without another look at the replay, it's easy to forget just how well Pineau De Re won the Grand National last year, but there was very little doubt he was going to emerge on top coming to the second-last and his rivals simply couldn't live with him from that point. He skipped away under his light weight to score by five lengths from Balthazar King, but must compete off an 8lb higher mark this time around and also has a new jockey for company. He's a 12-year-old now and hasn't jumped a fence all season, a predictable if far-from-ideal preparation for the world's greatest steeplechase. A return to Aintree has also been paramount to Balthazar King's whole campaign. He'd had a hard race at Cheltenham in winning the cross-country chase before this fantastic effort and has instead been kept fresh for the National in 2015. Philip Hobbs' first-string has won 13 of his 26 career starts over fences and ticks plenty of the right boxes in terms of suitability. Alvarado was maintaining an incredible run of placed efforts for jockey Paul Moloney and owners Mr & Mrs William Rucker. Following the exploits of State Of Play (fourth in 2009, third in 2010 and fourth in 2011) and Cappa Bleu (fourth in 2012 and second in 2013), Alvarado made stealthy headway from the back of the field, but never really threatened to win the race. He has refused on a couple of occasions in the past but belied those fears with a sound round of jumping and stayed on strongly past Rocky Creek and Chance Du Roy. Rocky Creek devoured these unique fences like it was a schooling session and looked the most likelty winner three from home, but didn't see it out. However, he looks a stronger model this time around (see BetBright Chase analysis below). Chance Du Roy was already proven over the obstacles after winning the 2013 Becher Chase and posted a sound effort in sixth, despite being hampered at Valentines on the first circuit. He's feasibly treated off 2lb lower and remains unexposed over extreme distances. Monbeg Dude has become a reliable performer in the top staying chases but his jumping remains a weak point, as does his tendancy to get too far behind. He's also up against it from a handicapping point of view (see Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase analysis). Raz De Maree was never on terms with the leaders but has been cut some slack by the assessor and showed up well behind Goonyella in the Midlands Grand National last month. The Package has had a couple of pops at National glory but unseated Graham Lee in 2010 and was well beaten here. It's unlikely he'll make the final field in 2015 as the weights were published before he thrashed his rivals in the Kim Muir at last month's Festival. Across The Bay, one of the Kim Muir vanquished, doesn't get much help from the handicapper and didn't get his favoured testing conditions, while The Rainbow Hunter has long been considered an ideal Aintree type but this was the second time he has unseated in the race, for all he was unlucky to be hampered this time.
Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase, Ayr, 4m 1/2f - April 12
1st Al Co 40/1
2nd Godsmejudge 16/1
Analysis: Despite diving at a few fences along the way and showing the odd quirk when hitting the front (a shade too soon, according to his trainer in a post-race interview), Al Co ran out a really convincing winner of this marathon contest. He was kept widest of all throughout the first half of the race and reportedly likes plenty of daylight, something he isn't guaranteed to get at Aintree, but good ground seems to suit ideally. He's caught the eye in a couple of three-mile handicap hurdles since the turn of the year but goes to Aintree 5lb worse off with Ayr runner-up Godsmejudge. Alan King's charge made a bad mistake five from the finish but whether it cost him the eventual winning distance of a length and a half is questionable. Godsmejudge rallied strongly after the last but there's also a chance the winner was idling as he appeared to jink to his right on the run to the line.
Boylesports Irish Grand National Chase, Fairyhouse, 3m 5f - April 21
1st Shutthefrontdoor 8/1fav
7th Goonyella 10/1
12th Cause Of Causes 14/1
PU Home Farm 12/1
UR Gallant Oscar 14/1
Analysis: Shutthefrontdoor has won his only start this season, which came at Carlisle in November, but his Irish Grand National victory from 12 months ago is the race to watch back if you're thinking of siding with the Jonjo O'Neill-trained gelding and A P McCoy on Saturday. This was a mammoth effort, not just from the horse but also from Barry Geraghty, who produced one of the best rides of the season. His mount responded at every fence with a fine round of jumping and the will to win he demonstrated after the last is testament to his prolific strike-rate. Goonyella looked tapped for toe at a crucial stage before keeping on at the one pace, while Cause Of Causes was too far off the pace and made a couple of niggly mistakes early on in the race. Home Farm weakened quite swiftly before his jockey called it a day and most of his best form has come with plenty of cut in the ground. Gallant Oscar was given a typically patient ride and was travelling well enough before making a bad mistake and leaving Davy Condon with little chance.
Hennessy Gold Cup Chase, Newbury, 3m 2 1/2f - November 29
1st Many Clouds
4th Monbeg Dude
6th Unioniste
7th The Druids Nephew
PU Rocky Creek 8/1
Analysis: A soft-ground Hennessy was always going to play to Many Clouds' strengths and it was his out-and-out staying power that got him home by a comfortable margin at Newbury. He's been a pretty safe conveyance throughout his career and looks sure to relish the jumping test that Aintree provides, but whether the extra mile will provide enough of a counter-balance to the quicker ground and 9lb higher handicap mark is not so easy to guarantee. Monbeg Dude ran another sound race but improved on this effort when fourth in the Welsh National the following month and it appears Chepstow really brings the best out in him. Unioniste was a market drifter on the day of the Hennessy and duly ran like it was needed, seemingly struggling at the rear of the field before picking off tired horses late in the piece. He subsequently bolted up at Sandown in January and finished third to Gold Cup winner Coneygree in the Denman Chase when last seen. The Druids Nephew was slightly disappointing in light of the strong market support for him and struggled to get into a rhythm on the demanding ground. He's since won well at the Cheltenham Festival (see below) and goes to Aintree as the best handicapped horse in the race (the handicapper would have him 10lb higher if he were to frame the weights again now). Rocky Creek, who improved on his 2014 Grand National fifth with a second to Road To Riches in a Down Royal Grade One on his seasonal return, took a major step backwards and was pulled-up before jumping three out.
Betfred Becher Handicap Chase, Aintree, 3m 2f - December 6
1st Oscar Time 25/1
3rd Saint Are 12/1
5th Chance Du Roy 12/1
11th Mon Parrain 40/1
13th Across The Bay 40/1
PU Al Co 50/1
UR Goonyella 12/1
Analysis: It's four years ago that Oscar Time found only Ballabriggs too strong in the Grand National so it was remarkable to see him return to the winner's enclosure at Aintree. His rider Sam Waley-Cohen has proved time and time again that he's cut from a different cloth when it comes to negotiating these magnificent fences and this replay is worth revisiting for his impeccable ride alone. Waley-Cohen kept his cool and allowed Conor O'Farrell to commit too early on Our Father before reeling him back in and ultimately holding off Mendip Express in a thrilling finish. There wasn't much between the front five at the line, with Saint Are running a lovely race in third. He has plenty of Aintree experience but this was just the second time he's tackled this course, having finished ninth in Auroras Encore's National, and he looks like he's strengthed up since 2013. Chance Du Roy lost a couple of places after the elbow but he wasn't stopping and gave another indication that he's on a very fair mark. Mon Parrain never looked like belying odds of 40/1 and, under a big weight, this wasn't an unreasonable fact-finding mission, although he returns to Aintree off a 4lb higher mark after winning at Cheltenham on New Year's Day. Across The Bay cut out some of the running in the mid-part of the race but again failed to finish with any purpose and needs a revival and lots of rain in the next few days. Al Co appeared hesitant and made all kinds of errors before pulling up, while Goonyella met the first all wrong and sent Johnny Burke sprawling.
Grand National Trial Handicap Chase, Punchestown, 3m 4f - February 1
2nd Portrait King 6/1
4th Raz De Maree 12/1
Analysis: Portrait King has stolen into the National under the radar having run two below-par races after this encouraging second to the well-backed and well-handicapped Embracing Change. The 2012 Eider Chase winner looked right back to the peak of his powers here and although bumped back up to a career-high mark, his general toughness and experience in big-field handicaps will stand him in good stead heading to Aintree for the first time. This was much better from Raz De Maree and, as already mentioned, his subsequent Midlands National effort showed he is probably as good as he ever was right now.
Betfair Denman Chase, Newbury, 3m - February 7
3rd Unioniste 9/2
6th Double Ross 33/1
Analysis: Coneygree jumped and galloped them silly in this soft-ground Grade Two, but there was very little wrong with Unioniste's effort in third, after all he was attempting to give the subsequent Cheltenham Gold Cup winner 5lb. Paul Nicholls' grey took advantage of a reduced mark when scoring by 10 lengths in a Sandown handicap in early-January and showed here he is not out of place in Graded company. There's a moment in the race that he looks like he may finish plumb last but the cheekpieces, fiited for the first time, appeared to have a positive effect and he stayed on dourly to take third. Unioniste is a big player in the National, where his stamina will be a major asset, but soft ground helps him and a dry week could spell trouble. Double Ross has had a really tough time in his second season over fences and was outclassed and outstayed here. His rating will need to come down considerably before he can be considered a plausible winner.
Veterans' Handicap Chase, Exeter, 3m - February 8
1st Soll 9/4fav
2nd Rebel Rebellion 10/1
5th Chance Du Roy 8/1
Analysis: Veterans' races aren't normally the place to be looking for future Grand National winners but David Pipe has used them expertly in order to get Soll's handicap mark up high enough for Aintree this term. Here the giant 10-year-old responded extremely positively to the fitting of a tongue-tie and cheekpieces to make a winning start for the Pipes. He was well on top at the line and has since landed another contest for old-stagers-only at Newbury, where first-time blinkers replaced the cheekpieces. Rebel Rebellion put up a brave effort in second trying to give the winner the thick end of a stone in weight, but his stamina ran out. He's won over two and a half miles either side of this outing and rates a dubious stayer to say the least. A bit like in the Becher, Chance Du Roy was never a serious factor but caught the eye doing some reasonably good late work. He has had a nice, quiet campaign with the National in mind and looks a well-treated runner with plenty in his favour.
Betfred Grand National Trial, 3m 5f - February 14
3rd Monbeg Dude 13/2
F Broadway Buffalo 6/1fav
Analysis: Haydock's big National doesn't look like having a massive bearing this year, with Monbeg Dude's jumping frailties coming to the fore again here. He was ridden by McCoy for the first time and the pair just didn't seem to click. He's since run no sort of race at the Cheltenham Festival and doesn't appear to have anything in hand from the assessor. Broadway Buffalo was sent off jolly on his return to the scene of his early-season victory and still hadn't really been asked a serious question before departing. He's an enigmatic character but is capable of winning a huge race, as he proved when second to Cause Of Causes in the four-miler at Cheltenham when last seen. David Pipe's charge is an interesting contender if making the cut.
BetBright Chase, Kempton, 3m - February 21
1st Rocky Creek 8/1
4th Godsmejudge 33/1
PU The Rainbow Hunter 33/1
Analysis: Rocky Creek has come in for major ante-post support in the past week or so and it all stems back to this stunning performance, in what is normally one of the more competitive three-mile handicap chases of the season. He simply toyed with his opposition under SamTwiston-Davies, jumping for fun and staying out of trouble on the wide outside. Having pulled-up in the Hennessy on his previous outing, it was no surprise to hear his trainer state he had undergone a breathing operation in the interim and the way he finished off his race left the impression his problems are now a thing of the past. He goes to the National 9lb well-in compared to his future official rating and showed last year that he can cope with all that the big race provides. He didn't seem to quite get home over the extended trip 12 months ago, but it might be hard to stop him if the wind issue has been resolved altogether. Another one to bounce back, although obviously not to the same extent, was Godsmejudge, who had pulled-up on his belated seasonal bow in the Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster. He was beaten a long way by the winner, but there was encouragement to be gleaned from the way he stuck to his guns and stayed on, around a track that would not play to his strengths. His subsequent no-show in a three-mile handicap hurdle at Bangor can be written off as a sharpener and it's no surprise to see him remaining pretty solid in the market behind the principals. The Rainbow Hunter failed to complete and remains 8lb higher than for his Sky Bet Chase win in January 2014.
BetBright Grimthorpe Chase, Doncaster, 3m 2f - February 28
3rd Night In Milan 5/1
5th Mon Parrain 8/1
Analysis: This possibly wasn't Night In Milan's very best run of the season but it showed he remains in top form and continues to post consistently good efforts in decent handicap company. He is a quality performer around Doncaster, a track fairly similar to Aintree in that it's a flat left-handed circuit that dries out quickly. Indeed, Night In Milan's only previous visit to Aintree ended in a highly creditable second to Lexicon Lad in May 2013, which gives further encouragement to his supporters. Whether he is brilliantly treated off a mark of 146 is open to debate but Keith Reveley's charge seems certain to post a bold bid. This was disappointing from Mon Parrain, whose previous Cheltenham win spelled a return to his very best, and he was under pressure a long way out. He kept on to his credit and looks a likely improver when stepped up to the extreme distance of the National.
Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase, Cheltenham, 3m 1f - March 10
1st The Druids Nephew 8/1
3rd Gallant Oscar 9/1
14th Monbeg Dude 20/1
Analysis: The Druids Nephew had been promising to do something like this all season and duly delivered under a brilliantly no-nonsense ride from Barry Geraghty. Watching the replay back you really get the feeling throughout that Geraghty knew he was on the best-handicapped horse in the race and so it proved as he led approaching the second-last and never looked in any serious trouble. As far as winning a race at Cheltenham and attempting to back it up 32 days later in the Grand National goes, Neil Mulholland's charge didn't have a particularly hard race at the Festival. Granted, every winner at Cheltenham will have been at fever-pitch for the day and getting him to peak again so soon afterwards will be no mean feat. But The Druids Nephew has always been held in the highest regard by Mulholland, who only took him into his yard at the start of the current campaign, and he's 10lb ahead of the handicapper. Pineau De Re proved just last year that running at Prestbury Park is barrier to success on Merseyside and this in-form eight-year-old must be high on the shortlist, despite niggling doubts over his jumping. Gallant Oscar obsolutely flew home to nick third and ran a perfect National trial, although it's doubtful he'll get the chance to line up. Monbeg Dude has won twice at Cheltenham before but this was a long way below his best and he was badly outpaced at a key moment. He was again spotted staying on when the bird had flown but he did appear to jump a bit better having been reunited with Paul Carberry. He has since been dropped 2lb in the ratings to a mark of 142 for this effort but will have to compete in the National off 144 as the weights were already published. He will also have another jockey in the place and will need a huge slice of luck to win a Grand National.
Toby Balding National Hunt Chase, Cheltenham, 4m - March 10
1st Cause Of Causes 8/1
2nd Broadway Buffalo 12/1
Analysis: Cause Of Causes went into this race a maiden chaser after 10 previous attempts but he had top-notch amateur Jamie Codd in the saddle and the market vibes were positive. What followed was a stylish success from a well-connected seven-year-old and it's hard to now put a cap on how high he can climb in this sphere. Gordon Elliott was slightly worried about his stamina pre-race, but he crept into it from well off the pace and saw out the four miles in great style. The National will be run at more fierce pace but you can certainly envisage a motionless Paul Carberry picking his way through the field on the second circuit on board this fellow. He hasn't taken a familiar path to Aintree, but Elliott isn't a normal trainer (in the very best sense) and won it with Silver Birch in 2007 after that one had finished second in Cheltenham's cross-country race. Broadway Buffalo ran a massive race and, like the winner, is effectively a second-season novice having been beaten at 1/5 in his only outing over fences at Wetherby last season. Also just seven, he's 4lb ahead of the handicapper and could go close at Aintree if building on this effort.
Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase, Cheltenham, 3m 2 1/2f - March 13
6th Many Clouds
PU Home Farm
PU Lord Windermere
Analysis: Thanks to remarkable winner Coneygree, the Gold Cup was run at a frantic pace and it's no real surprise the Grand National types in the race could do no better than sixth. Many Clouds went to Cheltenham as a leading contender having won the Hennessy and BetBright Cup on his two previous starts, and the rain that fell on the Thursday night was expected to suit. Unfortunately it just wasn't soft enough and he didn't have the gears to go with the top three-milers when it really mattered. He boxed on admirably to be beaten 25 lengths at the line and is bound to be suited by the stamina test of the National. The negatives, however, are obvious as he is now 9lb higher in the ratings than when winning at Newbury and it's unlikely we'll get a deluge of rain this week. Home Farm hardly looks thrown in, either, and he was a 100/1 chance who was struggling soon after half way in the Gold Cup. There are question marks everywhere you look with Henry De Bromhead's runner. The 2014 Gold Cup hero Lord Windermere must shoulder top weight at Aintree and that looks beyond him on this evidence. He had shown up well when third to Carlingford Lough in the Irish Hennessy at Leopardstown in February but spread a plate during the race here and continued his trainer's luckless run of form. He looks like a horse that takes a bit of knowing and Robbie McNamara has only ridden him once before in public.
Conclusion
Paul Nicholls has a seriously strong hand but there's just about enough doubt over Rock Creek's suitability for this distance to oppose him, with stable companion Unioniste making slightly more appeal after he finished third to Coneygree at Newbury when last seen. However, there are some fascinating contenders lurking further down the weights and none more so than CHANCE DU ROY. Beaten just a short-head by Rocky Creek when sixth last year, they meet on identical terms yet Philip Hobbs' representative is a 40/1 chance. The replays of last year's National and his two outings this season are both worth revisiting, especially the Becher Chase, where he once again negotiated the fences with aplomb. The Alan King-trained Godsmejudge and Gordon Elliott's Toby Balding National Hunt Chase winner Cause Of Causes are expected to be staying on past beaten horses.
1. Chance Du Roy
2. Unioniste
3. Rocky Creek
4. Godsmejudge
5. Cause Of Causes
