Ben Linfoot's Value Bet
Friday 19 November 2010 19:00, UK
Ben Linfoot seeks out the value from Saturday's action at Haydock and Lingfield.
Take the 20s about Barafundle
Imperial Commander looks bombproof in the Betfair Chase.
He's 22lbs clear on official ratings, goes best fresh, goes well at Haydock and is reportedly doing very well at home in the run up to the race.
I find him impossible to oppose and though Master Minded and Zaynar aren't quite as solid over at Ascot there's very little to take them on with at the prices.
Perhaps the exciting Silviniaco Conti could be the one to make Zaynar work as he beat the highly-regarded Captain Chris with ease at Chepstow and that form was franked by Frascati Park on Friday.
However, all that seems to be factored into his price already at a measly 4/1.
I'd much rather take on Grands Crus in the 40% Better Off On Betfair Sp 'fixed Brush' Handicap Hurdle as for all he looked way ahead of the handicapper at Cheltenham last Sunday he's not had long to recover and goes an extra half mile at Haydock.
I want one proven over the distance in this race and the horse that catches my eye at 20/1 is Jennie Candlish's Barafundle.
Candlish has saddled winners at 200/1 and at Cheltenham recently and Barafundle was entered at the five-day stage for the race she won with Cross Kennon at Prestbury Park.
He's only ever run one bad race in his life - when beaten at Cheltenham in April - but made up for that blip with a gutsy second at Haydock on his next start in May.
That day he finished six lengths off Picture This, the same horse who won the Cheltenham contest he flopped in, and led a long way from home before succumbing to the winner on the run-in.
He jumps a hurdle well which is vital in these fixed brush races, goes well fresh and revels in a stamina test which he is sure to get over three miles at Haydock on Saturday.
After going so close off a mark of 127 on his final start last season I believe he can go really well off 130 first time up this campaign and with conditions to suit he should be backed at 20/1.
Tweedy has the X Factor
Over on the all weather at Lingfield there's a couple of listed races and I like the look of Tweedy in the Ladbrokes.com Golden Rose Stakes.
Trained by Nunthorpe-winning handler Edward Lynam (who won this race with Duff in 2008), Tweedy is an improving Oasis Dream filly who might just get the run of the race here.
She's won two races on the all weather at Dundalk recently over six and seven furlongs, making all on both occassions.
In between those victories she was beaten at the same track over six but was drawn in 10 that day and could never get to the lead.
She's the only obvious pace angle in this contest and from stall five she's berthed ideally to get to the front and lead the way.
With only a little bit to find on official figures I reckon it's worth taking 15/2 that the closers can't catch her.
Recommendations:
1pt win Tweedy in Lingfield 3.40 at 15/2(Coral).
1pt e.w Barafundle in 2.50 Haydock at 20/1 (general) 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4.