India, South Africa and Australia are through to the semi-finals, but who will claim the fourth and final spot as the group stage reaches its climax? England may be out of the running, but there is still plenty to play for in India
Thursday 9 November 2023 15:37, UK
New Zealand look set to claim the last Cricket World Cup semi-final spot after a convincing win over Sri Lanka; Pakistan and Afghanistan are still mathematically in the mix but what sort of miracle would either need to progress to the knockout stage?
New Zealand's emphatic five-wicket win over Sri Lanka on Thursday sees them move to 10 points, two points ahead of challengers Pakistan and Afghanistan - and with a vastly superior net run-rate over both.
Pakistan and Afghanistan can, in theory, still qualify with wins over England and South Africa, respectively, in their final group games but it would take a truly remarkable set of results for the Black Caps now not to reach the final four.
Pakistan need to beat England by 287 runs on Saturday or, if bowling first, would need to chase a hypothetical target of 150 in only 3.4 overs.
Afghanistan, meanwhile, would need an even more fantastical 438-run win over South Africa on Friday to see them surpass New Zealand's net run-rate and push themselves into a semi-final spot.
A Glenn Maxwell-inspired Australia clinched a final-four berth with a remarkable three-wicket triumph over Afghanistan in Mumbai, Maxwell's stunning 201 not out off 128 balls dragging his team over the line after they slumped to 91-7 when chasing 292.
Their sixth-straight success, having started the tournament with back-to-back defeats to India and South Africa, ensures they join those two in the knockout stage.
Hosts India have eight wins from eight, securing their serene passage through to the semi-final stage, with their most recent victory - a 243-run demolition of the Proteas - guaranteeing top spot.
South Africa, despite that heavy defeat, are also in the semi-finals. They are tied on 12 points with Australia, guaranteeing that the two teams will meet in one semi-final, with India most likely hosting New Zealand in the other.
England, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Netherlands are already eliminated.
Though England's miserable Cricket World Cup defence is already over, there is more than pride left for Jos Buttler's team to play for.
It has come to light that places at the 2025 Champions Trophy will be allocated based on performances in this competition, with hosts Pakistan joined by the seven highest finishers, meaning England still have work to do.
They need to avoid finishing in the bottom two in order to confirm a Champions Trophy spot, currently sitting seventh of 10 - above Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Netherlands - with one game to go, against Pakistan on Saturday, live on Sky Sports Cricket from 8am (first ball 8.30am). Victory there would guarantee them their spot at the tournament.
England head coach Matthew Mott admitted he was not aware of the qualification process until during the defeat against India, telling reporters after that loss: "The ICC do change the rules quite a bit with qualification but to be honest I don't think it would affect in any way the way we've played in this tournament, so it's not a big deal.
"It's plenty of motivation for us to pick ourselves back up off the canvas and keep trying to throw punches. It gives us a lot of focus that we need to make sure we can't just 'turn up'. We've got to win these games."
Watch every game from the Cricket World Cup live on Sky Sports between now and the final on Sunday November 19 - or stream without a contract through NOW.
