Ascot tips: James Flaherty selects his five to follow from the Victoria Cup meeting all live on Sky Sports Racing

Ascot hosts its two-day Victoria Cup meeting, all live on Sky Sports Racing this Friday and Saturday; Victoria Cup features old favourite Safe Voyage for John Quinn and Jason Hart; watch every race live on Sky Sports Racing

Thursday 11 May 2023 17:27, UK

Form expert James Flaherty reveals his horses to keep onside on Friday and Saturday at Ascot's Victoria Cup meeting, all live on Sky Sports Racing.

Even though these early columns can make one look rather foolish at times when discussing the going (especially at a track that dries as quickly as Ascot), and I am siding with the presumption that it will be soft ground.

With the ground currently soft on the straight course and soft, heavy in places on the round course, and 4-6mm forecast to fall Thursday, and a possibility of up to 12mm, it may even start slightly worse than that. While it can dry quick, if that rain arrives, we must be looking at borderline heavy on Friday.

BICKERSTAFFE

Friday - Peroni Nastro Azzurro 'Live Every Moment' Handicap (4.10)

Bickerstaffe was probably the first horse to jump off the page at me when I saw the initial entries and I think he is one of the best bets over the two days at the prices. Of course, his disappointing run on his sole appearance for this stable last year is a negative but that is the only real issue and given his record fresh, I am willing to forgive that effort.

Like many of the progeny of Mayson, his record off a break is impressive. He won first time up in 2021, while it is worth noting that he also won on debut as a juvenile (ground that was soft, heavy in places). That strike-rate from his three starts when fresh is encouraging, as is his record over course and distance. He is unbeaten in two starts over course and distance, neither of which were off a break incidentally.

The form of those wins and the manner in which they were achieved add to his credentials. The first of those successes was an authoritative one off a mark of 90, that saw him hit with a 9lb rise. His second success here was not as comfortable but it came off the same mark as he runs off today, so it is fair to say he is handicapped to go close.

The combination of this course and distance along with returning from a break are possibly his optimum conditions. I think he might even be better on soft ground too, as he hasn't had many opportunities to show it since his debut success and I'd expect him to go close. I was surprised to see him available at a double-figure price, I'd make him a lot shorter than the 11/1 currently available.

DOCKLANDS

Friday - Peroni Nastro Azzurro 'Serve With Style' Handicap (5.20)

Harry Eustace is a trainer going places fast and I expect him to have a big season in 2023. He has certainly started that way and seems to be consistently holding his strike rate around 25 per cent. Docklands has been one of his winners, recording a relatively straightforward success at Kempton last time when sent off odds on.

That run didn't tell us much that we didn't already know but his previous effort behind Cicero's Gift is the one that stands out. Time may tell that he had an impossible task on that occasion given the winner has since bolted up in a Conditions race at Goodwood that included three horses rated over 100. He was ultimately no match for the winner, but he travelled as well if not better to a point and it was only inside the final furlong that the winner asserted.

Docklands had the reopposing Bussento back in third and that run suggests that an opening mark of 80 might be quite attractive. His debut effort would back that up when he was particularly eye-catching at Haydock. He had horses in behind that day that have since won handicaps off marks of 77 and 74, while another was second off a mark of 82.

All things considered, I think Docklands is nicely treated. The race doesn't seem to have a lot of pace, which should suit his style, and I'll be disappointed if he doesn't go close.

HIGH FIBRE

Saturday - Peroni Nastro Azzurro Handicap (1.30)

High Fibre is a horse I have liked since his juvenile days, first coming to my attention when eye-catching in a York nursery. He won a similar contest on his next start at Newmarket impressively, but he was always going to develop into a better horse once he encountered staying trips as an older horse.

I was looking forward to following him last season, but it didn't quite pan out for him. He was an excellent second to Educator on reappearance at Newmarket when he had Israr in behind, but unfortunately, we didn't see him again. While his well-being must be taken on trust, I have little doubt that he is a better horse than his current rating of 89.

It is my belief he will be rated higher by the end of the season. The question is if he is ready to go on his return from a layoff but at the prices, it is a risk I am willing to take. He looks the standout in this line-up in terms of potential and he could just be very well handicapped. He will handle soft ground and hopefully he can continue the progress he has shown in his last three racecourse starts.

I thought the 5/1 generally available was a little generous, certainly enough to tempt me into having a play.

SAFE VOYAGE

Saturday - Peroni Nastro Azzurro Victoria Cup (2.40)

Safe Voyage has been something of a cliff horse for me recently, but he continues to run well for the most part in these big handicaps. He was an unlucky loser at Leopardstown on Irish Champions Weekend last September, when flying home up the centre of the track, having come from a long way back.

While he has suggested that a mile may now be his best trip, it is only responsible for one of his 13 wins. In contrast, he has won 11 times at seven furlongs and was seen as a "specialist" at the distance for many years. At this stage of his career, I think a stiff seven furlongs in soft ground could just be perfect for him. He arrives off the back of an excellent third in the Thirsk Hunt Cup off this mark a week ago.

He went close a few times at the end of last season, at Leopardstown as mentioned (also off this mark) and here in the Balmoral handicap on Champions Day when he ran a huge race to finish fourth. He shaped better than the result in that contest too and given that he ran off 100 in that, he must be capable of going close here off a mark of 97.

Safe Voyage may bump into one or two more progressive again, but I think he could win one of these if things fall right for him. Regardless, he looks good each-way value once more and I think he is overpriced each-way at 20-1.

COCO BEAR

Saturday - Peroni Nastro Azzurro 0.0% Handicap (4.55)

I am hoping Saffie Osborne can bookend the card as I think Coco Bear is the one to beat in the finale, especially if the ground is soft or worse. His form figures on soft or heavy going read 1st, 5th, 1st, 1st including his last two appearances. I find when sprinters get on a roll, they are often likely to string up a sequence and he could get another win on the board here.

He looks like an improved horse this year, having returned with a comfortable win at Windsor off a mark of 67 before following up at Leicester off a 6lb higher mark. He was value for more than the neck winning margin on that occasion and the first two pulled well clear of the remainder.

Coco Bear stays the six-furlong trip well which could be important here and the ground deteriorating further will be no issue. His stable have started 2023 exceptionally well considering their numbers and everything looks in place for a big run.

Watch every race from the Victoria Cup meeting at Ascot live on Sky Sports on Friday May 12 and Saturday May 13.