Baaeed will skip the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at ParisLongchamp and have final run at Ascot on Champions Day; Irish Champion Stakes winner Luxembourg now 4/1 favourite for the Arc, ahead of Alpinista (13/2) and Japanese superstar Titleholder (8/1)
Thursday 15 September 2022 14:53, UK
While many racing fans will have greeted the news of Baaeed’s absence from the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe with sighs of disappointment, his potential Paris rivals could well be rubbing their hands with glee.
Trainer William Haggas confirmed on Wednesday that his unbeaten star will not be travelling to France next month and will instead have his final race in the Qipco Champion Stakes at Ascot.
With the world's best horse out of the way, the door is open to a number of Arc contenders to stake their claim in the famous contest, including the Irish Champion Stakes winner, the Irish Derby hero, a Japanese superstar as well as last year's shock Arc victor.
A look at the leading Arc contenders…
Unbeaten as a two-year-old, Aidan O'Brien's Luxembourg won all three starts including Group One victory in the Vertem Futurity Trophy at Doncaster to round off his campaign.
A staying-on third in the 2000 Guineas on three-year-old debut, it looked the perfect trial for the Cazoo Derby but he picked up an injury setback and never made it to Epsom.
His belated return came at The Curragh when scrambling home in a Group Three but an impressive win in the Irish Champion Stakes over the likes of Vadeni, Mishriff and Onesto, who could also run in the Arc, has heightened expectations.
He would be stepping up in trip to 12 furlongs for the first time, but will be getting weight as a three-year-old and could well improve on the distance based on his pedigree as a Camelot colt.
Flawless since September 2020, Sir Mark Prescott's star mare Alpinista has consistently proved her critics wrong but it would surely be the biggest shock of all if she managed to land a historic triumph in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe for Kirsten Rausing.
The five-year-old has won her last seven starts, with the most recent five coming at Group One level including a Yorkshire Oaks success last month.
She has a Group One win to her name earlier this year at Saint-Cloud, although she possibly hasn't beaten anything of the quality of the likes of Titleholder and Luxembourg.
That said, she took the scalp of last year's Arc winner Torquator Tasso in Germany last season at Hoppegarten and shouldn't be overlooked with Luke Morris in the saddle. This was always the plan and so far, it's gone perfectly.
Japanese sensation Titleholder is very much the unknown quantity in the field and is surely Japan's best hope of ending their Arc hoodoo for many years.
The Toru Kurita-trained four-year-old looks to have improved significantly in his last two starts, defeating last year's Prix Foy winner by seven lengths on penultimate start in the Grade One Tenno Sho over two miles.
An impressive victory in the Grade One Takarazuka Kinen has heightened hopes of Arc glory, but having not raced outside of Japan, how will that form transfer across to the ParisLongchamp turf?
Last year's shock Arc winner is back for more this time around, having won the race at 80/1 in 2021 for trainer Marcel Weiss and Rene Piechulek.
The five-year-old has ran with credit this year, winning a Group Two in Hamburg before an excellent second in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot.
He's since been narrowly beaten in the Grosser Preis von Baden, a race he won in 2021, but that looked a prep run for this.
Realistically, can lightning strike twice for the Weiss team at ParisLongchamp?
Last year's Derby and King George star Adayar was a market leader for last year's race but could only take fourth after racing keenly, a trait he repeated when well-beaten in the Champion Stakes at Ascot 13 days later.
After a prolonged absence, the Charlie Appleby-trained four-year-old made a belated seasonal reappearance with an easy success at the Leger meeting, defeating two rivals without ever coming off the bridle.
His trainer admitted after the race that he'd been worked harder at home, and that could be a possible negative having not had a serious challenge all year.
That said, he clearly has the back class and it wouldn't shock anyone if he proved good enough to play a major role.
The Grand Prix de Paris back in July didn't look it at the time, but has turned out to be an excellent piece of form and was a race won by Fabrice Chappet's three-year-old.
Since that win at ParisLongchamp, the runner-up Simca Mille has won the Prix Niel, which always tends to be a good Arc trial, whilst the fourth Eldar Eldarov took the Cazoo St Leger for the Roger Varian team.
Onesto was beaten half a length by Luxembourg after a sustained battle up the Leopardstown straight in the Irish Champion, but that looks an ideal prep and he will surely improve for that return to 12 furlongs. Definitely one to consider.
Having looked set to skip Paris and head to Ascot, Vadeni's connections have switched their plans due to a dry forecast in the French capital.
The Coral-Eclipse hero was a length and three quarters behind Luxembourg in the Irish Champion Stakes on soft ground, which may not have suited, and he now has the advantage of not having to travel.
Stamina remains a major question mark for Jean-Claude Rouget's colt, but the team are willing to give it a go.
Ralph Beckett and Juddmonte opted to swerve another Classic bid in the St Leger earlier this month in favour of a tilt at the Arc with their Irish Derby hero Westover.
The three-year-old colt was third in the Cazoo Derby, having struggled for a run throughout, before winning by seven lengths in the Irish equivalent.
He went off a 13/8 favourite for the King George at Ascot in July but was a bitter disappointment, having weakened tamely after racing very keenly.
Assuming all is well after that poor run, he would have every chance on his Irish Derby form, especially getting weight from all of his older rivals.
