The Irish Marksman with all the latest news and gossip ahead of the Breeders' Cup.
Hold your Guineas bets on Nephrite
Will Ballydoyle break their Churchill Downs duck?
The Breeders' Cup has been held at Churchill Downs seven times since its inauguration and there has yet to be an Irish-trained winner!
A meeting which hasn't really captured the imagination of the European racing scene as much as the Americans would like to admit, saddling it with the grandiose title of the World Thoroughbred Championships continues to ring hollow. It remains very much an afterthought in the minds of the majority of European trainers, who rightly so, gear their horses for the well-established European Pattern system.
Ballydoyle have had an indifferent attitude at times to the meeting. Successes which include High Chaparral's two wins in the Turf and Johannesburg ' Juvenile, along with the narrow defeat of Giant's Causeway in the Classic, have been tempered by numerous disappointments along the way. This year, however, they appear to be giving the meeting more thought with a sizeable entry and there was even a photo tweeted by Anne Marie O'Brien of the Ballydoyle horses receiving stalls training to the sound of a bell to simulate that at Churchill Downs. Of course, the list of Ballydoyle horses which have lost or seriously compromised their chances at the gate in Breeders' Cups is a lengthy one.
Each-Way Punt
So You Think, with Ryan Moore aboard, goes for the Classic, his first start on dirt and while he is probably the best horse in the field, his constitution is unquestionable and he is racing at his optimum trip, the unknown factor of the dirt surface tempers enthusiasm. However, at a price of 6/1 in places or beyond he is worth an each-way punt.
However, it is surely the turf where Ballydoyle, and indeed Europe's, best chances lie. Ballydoyle have a good line on US turf form this year with Cape Blanco having taken all before him until his injury-enforced retirement while Treasure Beach and Together have also taken Grade One events.
Await The Dawn is an intended runner in the Turf. The 4yo was said to have suffered an acute bout of travel sickness after disappointing in the Juddmonte International, a condition which reportedly threatened his life. A son of Giant's Causeway , he had originally been earmarked for the Classic but So You Think's participation has led to him being re-routed.
Successful over the mile and a half on softish ground in the Hardwicke Stakes prior to his York flop, Await The Dawn should be well suited by a return to better ground and is likely to face his greatest challenge from the rest of the European contingent which includes Sarafina, Midday and Sea Moon, and possibly stablemate, St Nicholas Abbey.
Filly & Mare Turf
Misty For Me goes for the Filly & Mare Turf. Her style of racing should suit Churchill Downs and the tightness of the track may just enable her to see out the eleven furlongs. Her best performance came when thrashing Midday in the Pretty Polly Stakes over ten furlongs while she didn't stay the twelve furlongs in the Oaks.
However, she has had a long season and disappointed last time in the Matron Stakes where she was ominously weak in the market and one wonders just if the edge has gone off her.
The Mile on turf is another likely win for the Europeans but Ballydoyle's Zoffany has a difficult to task against the likes of Goldikova and Strong Suit while the Ballydoyle contenders for the Juvenile races look second-division although the US-bred Royal Lodge winner Daddy Long Legs is a potential improver on dirt in the Grey Goose Juvenile.
Nephrite far from certain to stay Guineas trip
The hype surrounding Born To Sea was put to bed with the defeat of Sea The Stars' half-brother on Sunday by Nephrite in the Killavullan Stakes. The soft ground, the fact he raced a little too keenly in the early stages and the report from John Oxx afterwards that the colt was lame are mitigating factors but, the fact is, that Born To Sea was always going to be unable to fulfil the public's expectations based on his parentage.
Ballydoyle's tactics worked a treat, Vault and Ishvana ensuring a decent pace with Joseph O'Brien on Nephrite tracking Born To Sea then comfortably outpacing the odds-on favourite inside the final furlong. Potentially smart three-year-old that he undoubtedly is, Nephrite's Guineas prospects, however, are far from certain. His pedigree is pure speed, by Pivotal out of a Clantime mare who was best at sprint trips and has also bred the Golden Jubilee winner, Cape Of Good Hope , so seven furlongs could prove to be his limit next year.
Recommendations:
Churchill Downs , Saturday:
Await The Dawn, Breeders' Cup Turf @ 5/1 with Sky Bet
So You Think, Breeders' Cup Classic @ 5/1 (each-way) with Sky Bet
