Weights & Measures: Big Sunrise
Thursday 25 February 2016 08:19, UK
Back by popular demand (two tweets and an email), Ben Linfoot reflects on this week's jumps amendments by the BHA handicapper.
Monster hike for Sunrise
Sausalito Sunrise >>>> Up 13lb to 163
"I hope the handicapper doesn't take that too literally," Philip Hobbs said at Ascot on Saturday, following Sausalito Sunrise's 12-length romp in the Appletiser 50 Year Celebration Chase. It was his second handicap chase victory of the season and his superiority was possibly exaggerated after his proven stamina came into play following a good gallop on testing ground. He certainly looked like he was pulling away from tired horses late on. However, the handicapper has taken the result literally (and some), bumping up Sausalito Sunrise 13lb to a mark of 163 after he beat the 146-rated Vieux Lion Rouge by 12 lengths giving him 4lb.
Still, Hobbs thinks the monster hike is a fair reflection of his horse's abilities.
"I think the handicapper's right," Hobbs said. "He did it very well and I think he'll go to the handicap chase [the Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase] on the Tuesday at the Cheltenham Festival as he's not entered in the Gold Cup. After that we'll possibly look to Punchestown for the [Grade 1 Bibby Financial Services Ireland] Punchestown Gold Cup."
The average rating of the top weight in the UBS-backed race for the last decade is 153, with the highest-rated horse in that timeframe being The Tother One, who ran off 158.
Even accounting for Hobbs' plundering of several Saturday handicaps this season, a victory for Sausalito Sunrise off such a mark would top the lot. The Minehead handler has already won the Gerry Feilden and the Ladbroke this season with Sternrubin, while Rock The Kasbah is on a hat-trick following wins at Haydock and Ascot. Both are on track for the Cheltenham Festival with Rock The Kasbah pencilled in for the Coral Cup, while Sternrubin is set to contest the County Hurdle following his disappointing performance in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury. Hobbs says there was 'no explanation' for that run but reports him to be 'absolutely fine' and on track for the County.
As for Village Vic, his ascendance through the handicaps could've booked him a ticket to the Ryanair Chase. A winner on all four starts this season, he's gone from a rating of 125 to 157 and though the Brown Advisory Plate Handicap Chase at the Festival remains an option, Hobbs is thinking of running him in the Ryanair.
Mercurey rising despite defeat
Le Mercurey >>>> Up 7lb to 147
Minella Rocco >>>> Remains on 143
Beaten horses in the Reynoldstown Novices' Chase at Ascot include Cheltenham Gold Cup winners Cool Dawn and Bobs Worth, while Many Clouds was runner-up in the contest before going on to win the following year's Grand National.
The one that caught the eye in behind Vyta Du Roc in Saturday's renewal was Paul Nicholls' Le Mercurey, a horse the champion trainer described as 'the future for us' this time last year.
It's fair to say he hasn't quite fulfilled his potential this season judging by those rosy comments, but Saturday's performance under Sam Twiston-Davies, giving half a stone to Vyta Du Roc and Minella Rocco, was a career best and he's on the radar ahead of the Festival.
"He's a possible runner [in the RSA] if the ground is soft," Nicholls told At The Races.
"He gave the two in front of him 7lb and he looked like winning going to the last, but he pricked his ears and popped it instead of landing running. Giving those two 7lb was a good performance and he's a decent horse.
"He had cheekpieces on as he just keeps a bit to himself - he pricked his ears going to the last, if the race had developed a bit earlier and they had got racing from the second last he might have been alright, but he got left in front and Sam sort of went for the big one at the last and the horse sort of said 'no I'm going to fiddle away' and he lost his momentum. It's just the nature of the beast but he did run very well."
Le Mercurey will have to make up plenty of ground on Seeyouatmidnight following their meeting in the Dipper Novices' Chase at Cheltenham on New Year's Day, if he is to run in the RSA, but he's going the right way and is an interesting outsider at 50/1.
However, if Hobbs does run Sausalito Sunrise off 163 in the 'Solutions', perhaps Nicholls will fancy Le Mercurey getting 16lb from him. That's all speculation, but the market move for Minella Rocco (14s into 8s with Sky Bet) on Tuesday did suggest that the Reynoldstown runner-up was firmly on track for the opening day handicap chase.
This was a much improved effort from Jonjo O'Neill's Shirocco gelding and he does have a touch of the Holywell's about him. He remains on a rating of 143 and looked of obvious interest for the handicap, but O'Neill said on Tuesday that he's going for the National Hunt Chase over four miles to thwart the gamble.
Gravey gives Henderson dilemma
Different Gravey >>>> Up 11lb to 160
Sausalito Sunrise wasn't the only horse to record a wide-margin victory at Ascot on Saturday, as just over half an hour later Different Gravey proved aptly-named when winning by 16 lengths off top weight in the Les Ambassadeurs Casino Handicap Hurdle on his first start of the campaign.
That was over 2m3f, but he was strong at the finish, lengthening away from tired rivals after a really strong gallop set by Debdebdeb and Sirop de Menthe.
A serious performance off a mark of 149 on just his fifth career start, it's no wonder Nicky Henderson was eager to stress the Ryanair World Hurdle supplementary option would remain open to him at his media day on Monday.
However, an 11lb rise to 160 probably means the Coral Cup off a likely top weight will be his preferred option. Henderson won the race with the 153-rated Whisper two years ago, while Volnay De Thaix put up an excellent performance in fifth last year off a mark of 158 before embarking on a novice chasing campaign.
Considering Different Gravey had a JLT Novices' Chase entry this season, he looks likely to head down the Volnay De Thaix route and a bold showing in the Coral Cup would be no surprise despite the reaction from the handicapper.
Handicap option for Dynaste?
Silviniaco Conti >>>> Up 5lb to 169
Dynaste >>>> Down 3lb to 159
Silviniaco Conti bounced back to winning form in the Betfair Ascot Chase after having his soft palate cauterised, scooting home by 20 lengths in first-time blinkers.
He utilised his stamina over the 2m5f trip on Saturday and will face a very different test in that regard on his next assignment, when lining up in the Crabbie's Grand National.
The Dom Alco gelding is officially 6lb well-in for the Aintree spectacular and he now heads the betting along with last year's winner Many Clouds. If he takes to the fences, he'll go there with every chance.
It will be the first handicap chase Silviniaco Conti has contested in his life and Saturday's runner-up, Dynaste, has also never taken part in such a race in his career.
David Pipe's grey didn't bounce back to the extent Silviniaco Conti did, obviously, having finished 20 lengths adrift in second, but he too ran better at the weekend in first-time blinkers following a wind operation and it was an encouraging run.
He'll be better going left-handed on better ground and, though he'll probably stick to Grade 1 company and go for another Ryanair Chase, I wonder if the Pipe team will consider the Brown Advisory Plate Handicap Chase at the Festival for him?
Probably not. But both Martin and David Pipe have had great success in the race with seven victories between them including recent wins for Great Endeavour, Salut Flo and Ballynagour, and a 3lb drop into the 150s for Dynaste at least gives them another option.
Honourable mentions
Altior's form keeps on working out and he's been bumped up 1lb while staying in his box at home ahead of the Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle. He's now considered 1lb superior to stablemate and Supreme rival Buveur D'Air.
Southfield Vic's novice chasing career seems to have hit a roadblock after he lost a two-runner race to De Bene Esse at Exeter and he's been allotted a hurdles rating of 148 ahead of a probable return to timber.
Hike of the week goes to Somerset Jem who made a mockery of an opening handicap mark of 87 when cartwheeling to an easy 13 length success at Wincanton. He's been hit with a 16lb rise.
Shades Of Midnight went up 13lb for his 26-length win at Kelso and the 12-year-old Mr Moonshine took advantage of a lenient hurdles mark when winning by 12 lengths at Haydock - a 10lb rise should ensure he won't be doing that again in a hurry.
Finally, Unowhatimeanharry's Valentine's Day massacre of the Pertemps qualifier field at Exeter has seen him go up fully a stone to a mark of 152 ahead of the final at Cheltenham next month.
Perhaps that will anchor him, but he does like Cheltenham and it's worth bearing in mind his trainer Harry Fry saddled the top weight in the race last year, Henryville, a 50/1 chance, also rated 152, and he ran a blinder to be a close fourth.