Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe: Runner-by-runner guide as classy field of 15 head to ParisLongchamp for Sunday showpiece
Adayar and Tarnawa head a classy field of 15 for Sunday's Arc at ParisLongchamp; Ground conditions expected to be soft in French capital; watch the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe live on Sky Sports Racing on Sunday at 3.05pm
Sunday 3 October 2021 15:06, UK
We are set for a truly historic day in Paris on Sunday with the 100th edition of the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, one of world horse racing’s greatest events.
It has been great to see a competitive renewal, with so many likeable horses with fantastic CVs near the head of the market.
Foreign raiders add so much to a race like the Arc too, so kudos to connections of horses who have brought their pride and joys to Paris from Germany and especially Japan.
- Appleby: No Adayar draw concerns; Tarnawa feared most
- Arc live on Sky Sports: What key connections have said
As of Friday, the ground at ParisLongchamp was said to be officially "soft" with 4-6mm of rain forecast over the next 24 hours. From Saturday into Sunday, as much as 15mm of further rain could fall so it is likely we are dealing with a soft ground Arc, but going reports in France, just like in the UK and Ireland, sometimes need to be taken with a pinch of salt.
Hopefully the weather does not ruin a great weekend of racing in Paris - all live on Sky Sports Racing - but the forecast does not look good. We must adapt and overcome, however, and finding the winner of the Arc will help.
1 - TORQUATOR TASSO (stall - 12) Trainer: Marcel Weiss; Jockey: Rene Piechulek
Germany's Horse of the Year for 2020 and a two-time Group One winner, Torquator Tasso is a hold-up performer who can travel well and will enjoy a stamina-demanding race which should transpire via a strong gallop on softening ground.
His form does not look good enough, but is one of the few declared that will thrive if all the forecast rain arrives. Still a lightly-raced four-year-old, I could see him outrunning his price (66/1) if the ground deteriorates.
2 - DEEP BOND (5) Ryuji Okubo; Mickael Barzalona
This strong-staying Japanese raider has yet to win at the top level. Despite that, he looked a likeable, straightforward sort when beating Broome in the Group Two Prix Foy, for all he had total run of the race.
Some potential softening of the ground is likely to aid his cause, in terms of making the race more about stamina, but I am not sure how he will handle proper soft autumn terrain. Should the rain arrive, and he thrives in it, he has an outside place chance at 28/1.
3 - BROOME (7) Aidan O'Brien; Yutaka Take
He is hugely consistent, straightforward and a tough performer for Ballydoyle and is versatile in terms of ground too. Any rain that falls will aid his chance, bringing his stamina into play and blunting the gears of classier rivals.
While an admirable individual, he does not look good enough on all known form, and his bad habit of occasionally breaking slowly might put him and Yutaka Take on the back foot early.
4 - TARNAWA (3) Dermot Weld; Christophe Soumillon
Tarnawa has improved significantly last year, progressing into a top-class performer and winning three top-level races. In two starts at ParisLongchamp in 2020 she went unbeaten.
She is one of the most versatile horses declared concerning ground and trip, and stepping back up to 12 furlongs after an ideal prep in the Irish Champion Stakes (10 furlongs) is a positive.
Her excellent trainer feels his stable star has made further physical progress this season and, granted some luck in running, will be going very close if on song.
5 - LOVE (4) - NON RUNNER
6 - RAABIHAH (15) J-C Rouget; Cristian Demuro
Raabihah finished fifth in last year's Arc when the ground was likely too soft and she was too far back off a sedate gallop. Under the circumstances, she ran well, but needs to improve significantly on that effort to trouble the judge here.
Kept in training for another crack at this race specifically, her early and middle season form was disappointing, but there were signs she was coming back to her best last time out.
However, her best, on what we know, is quite a way off winning this Arc, for all she represents a top-class trainer and comes here in-form and fresh.
7 - CHRONO GENESIS (14) Takashi Saito; Oisin Murphy
The second Japanese raider and the mount of champion British jockey, Oisin Murphy. Her sire Bago won the Arc in 2004 and this five-year-old mare will love the typical Group One European-style of racing, should a sound end-to-end gallop transpire, as she is a strong traveller.
Slightly unlucky when second to Mishriff in the Sheema Classic when she took a bump at a crucial stage of the race, that form looks strong now, but Mishriff has likely improved significantly since the March clash. The forecast rain, based on her Japanese form, is a negative.
8 - MOJO STAR (1) Richard Hannon; Rossa Ryan
Second in the Derby behind Adayar (four-and-a-half lengths) before again finishing runner-up in another British Classic to Hurricane Lane (two-and-three-quarter lengths) in the St Leger.
He will likely stay better than most and handle softer conditions, but I am not sure he has progressed since June.
He has a likeable enough profile on paper, but does not look classy enough or quick enough, especially if the rain does not come.
9 - BABY RIDER (13) P Bary; Ioritz Mendizabal
A lightly-raced and strong-travelling son of Gleneagles who was 14th in the Prix du Jockey Club and fifth in the Grand Prix de Paris behind Hurricane Lane.
He was prepped for this in the Group Two Prix Niel, when just chinned on the line by Bubble Gift. It is good to have a French three-year-old colt running, but he simply doesn't look good enough.
10 - ADAYAR (11) Charlie Appleby; William Buick
Adayar landed a sizeable gamble (40/1 into 16/1) when running out a dominant winner of the Derby, powering away in the closing stages despite using plenty of petrol early from a poor draw in stall one.
He then took his form to even greater heights in landing the King George at Ascot next time out, despite running keenly early without cover.
Physically, and maybe mentally, he looks the type to get better as the season goes on, so there may well be more to come, especially with the King George form being boosted by Mishriff.
Some have suggested his draw in 11 is a negative, but he has had issues in the stalls in the past (edgy and can be slow away) so should this scenario play out again, William Buick has more options from a wider berth. Looks the leading form player with Tarnawa.
11 - HURRICANE LANE (11) Charlie Appleby; James Doyle
In seven career runs, he has only been beaten once and that came in the Derby behind stablemate Adayar and Mojo Star, having lost two front shoes and not handling the track. The Derby appears to have been the making of him, however, subsequently winning three Group Ones, including the Irish Derby, Grand Prix de Paris and St Leger.
He has progressed with racing and is getting quicker and sharper so will enjoy the return to 12 furlongs and will love every drop of rain that (potentially) falls.
His form needs to improve two or three lengths to trouble Adayar, who William Buick rides, and that may well be tough to achieve on the back of a hard race last time out.
12 - SEALIWAY (10) Cedric Rossi; Franck Blondel
He put up a superb juvenile performance to win the Group One Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere on this card last year, looking at home on bad ground and has shown himself to be just as good this season with a couple of strong efforts behind the classy St Mark's Basilica.
But he hasn't been seen in 119 days after his runner-up effort in the Prix du Jockey Club and needs to improve significantly as well as proving he stays 12 furlongs.
13 - ALENQUER (8) William Haggas; Tom Marqaund
He started this season by turning over Adayar in the Group Three Classic Trial at Sandown, form which now looks extremely strong. He hasn't progressed as much as the Derby winner since then, but certainly is an improved individual in his own right who handles soft ground well.
He ran a fine race to be second to Mishriff in the Juddmonte at York, but was beaten a long way by Group One standards.
The step back up to 12 furlongs is a positive, as is softer ground, but that needs to unlock a significant amount of improvement to trouble the market leaders, assuming they all run their races.
14 - BUBBLE GIFT (6) M Delzangle; Gerald Mosse
This three-year-old son of Nathaniel has progressed with racing all season and comes here on the back of a career-best, getting up close home to beat Baby Rider in the Group Two Prix Niel.
He only won by a nose that day, but is value for a length or two more given the awful tactical position he got himself out of to win. However, that form just doesn't look good enough.
15 - SNOWFALL (9) Aidan O'Brien; Ryan Moore
She put up one of the performances of the season when winning the Oaks at Epsom by an incredible 16 lengths, however she did beat up vastly inferior rivals who didn't stay on rain-affected ground.
She followed up with two more visually taking displays in weak fillies-only Group Ones, winning the Irish and Yorkshire Oaks before being turned over in her 'prep' for the Arc in the Prix Vermeille.
A poor ride cost her victory, and maybe exposed some of her limitations, but she is still a young horse and trained by a great handler. A return to her Oaks level of form puts her bang in the mix, but will she get there in her first run, not only against colts, but older horses, too?
Verdict
Unless Broome and/or Deep Bond go on, we might have a slightly tactical Arc this year. The fact the former can be slowly away potentially exasperates this, but the Godolphin pair of Adayar and Hurricane Lane likely won't be too far away. Proper hold-up horses just might struggle and need that that extra bit of luck late on in a field that potentially concertinas later than usual. It's just something to bear in mind.
Both the three-year-old colt Adayar and the five-year-old mare Tarnawa have a slight form edge over their closest rivals; those being Hurricane Lane and Snowfall. At the prices, I am happy to leave Hurricane Lane (4/1). While he'll love the drop in trip and any rain, I just don't like his 'prep' in the Leger as it looked like he had a hard race. Snowfall (5/1) is now a more backable price, but the further her season has gone on, the more and more that Oaks demolition looked to flatter her.
Little separates Adayar and Tarnawa, but with the former being younger, less exposed and having more scope for mental and physical progress, along with being likely to be in a better position tactically earlier in the race, ADAYAR (100/30 best price) just gets the nod.
