Buffalo to soldier on

Sky Sports News presenter Alex Hammond previews the weekend's action in her latest horse racing blog.

There are some interesting races to look forward to this weekend as we count down to Cheltenham and also start looking ahead to the Grand National with their trial at Haydock.

The feature event though takes place at Ascot, the Grade 1 Betfair Ascot Chase. There has been a bit of rain around and the ground will most likely be soft. Six horses have been declared for the 2 mile 5 ½ furlong contest with the novice Ptit Zig heading the betting for trainer Paul Nicholls.

He isn’t the highest rated in the race, but he is improving and he has a 100% record over fences. Al Ferof would have represented the trainer, but he has suffered a setback and will miss the next few months after minor surgery. So, it’s left to the novice to fly the flag and step up against established chasers.

His jumping has improved with each of his four chasing starts and it needed to as he was a bit deliberate at the beginning. He has been freshened up since his win over Champagne West at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day after four runs in six weeks and he runs here en-route to the festival for the JLT Novices’ Chase for which he is 7/2 second favourite.

He wouldn’t want the ground too testing, but the amount of rain that’s fallen shouldn’t have had too much of an adverse effect on conditions.

Alan King’s Grade 1 winning chaser Balder Succes is the model of consistency. He is the highest rated in this and comes here having won over 2 miles 4 ½ furlongs at Kempton last time out. That’s the furthest he’s run over, but the change in tempo has helped his jumping and the extra furlong won’t stop him.

His target at the festival is the Ryanair for which he’s 12/1. His biggest win came in the Maghull Novices’ Chase at Aintree last year and his recent win will mean his confidence is up.

Ballycasey represents Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh, but he has to bounce back after a disappointing run in the 2 mile 1 furlong Dial-A-Bet Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. The step back up in trip will help though and Walsh comes here rather than head to Gowran for a host of decent rides including Champagne Fever in the Red Mills Chase.

I think though at the prices it might be worth taking a chance on Nicky Henderson’s mare, Ma Filleule. She gets a valuable 7lb mares allowance which means she is favourably weighted for this. She’s 10/1 for the Ryanair and has some very good form.

She won the Topham at Aintree last spring and since then she has been beaten twice in decent races, albeit those runs were a bit disappointing although her latest run behind Sam Winner at Aintree stacks up well. She has had a short break since then and I wouldn’t be surprised to see her bounce back. She still holds an entry in the Gold Cup for which she’s a 50/1 shot.

She’s versatile ground wise and conditions won’t faze her. Ptit Zig is sure to be well fancied for this, but I hope at the weights she can offer some value.

The Betfred Grand National Trial takes centre stage at Haydock; actually that’s probably not going to be the case as AP McCoy is riding there on Saturday and the crowds have been flocking to see the champ since the news last weekend that he will be ending his immeasurably successful career by the end of the season.

His announcement after winning on Mr Mole at Newbury was a shock, but not a surprise. One thing is for sure, we’ll miss him. It will seem strange when the man who has dominated jump racing for 20+ seasons is no longer riding, probably as much to him as to us.

We have been privileged to be around to witness such a phenomenon and we won’t see the likes of the soon to be 20-time champion jockey again in our lifetime. Not just a talented, fierce competitor, but a thoroughly good bloke. He could well win the big race here too as he has picked up the ride on the Michael Scudamore trained Monbeg Dude (currently 25/1 for the Grand National).

You’d imagine he’ll be on 12/1 favourite Shutthefrontdoor on April 11 for boss JP McManus and AP did say in the week that he’d like another crack at winning the big race before he hangs up his boots for good. Punters will no doubt side with Monbeg Dude in this as the McCoy factor comes into play, but I’m not sure Haydock brings out the best in him.

Despite finishing third in this race in 2013, he saves his best for more testing tracks. Having said that he ran well in the Welsh National to finish fourth on his last start and the handicapper has dropped him a couple of pounds since that run.

There will be worse horses to back on Saturday, but I’m not sure he’ll be great value. Benvolio has top weight for Paul Nicholls and Noel Fehily and he is vying for favouritism with Monbeg Dude. He has been raised 6lb for his narrow defeat in the Welsh National last time out where the first time blinkers seemed to do the trick and you hope they have the same positive effect here.

David Pipe’s Broadway Buffalo has stamina to prove having never run beyond 3 mile 1 furlong. He’s effective at this track though as his win in the Tommy Whittle showed. He was beaten when turned out quickly under a penalty in the Rowland Meyrick on Boxing Day and his quick reappearance probably explains his run there.

I think there is still more to come from this horse and his mark of 137 may underestimate him.

Nigel Twiston-Davies runs Benbens who has another chance to prove he stays this trip after appearing not to in the Welsh National. This track may make it easier for him though and he ran well in the Peter Marsh here on heavy ground (3m 1f) last time out. He was raised 5lb for that which is negated by Ryan Hatch’s claim here. The horse that beat him that day was Samstown and he reopposes.

A 9lb rise in the weights might stop him.

Don’t be put off by the recent form of Rigadin de Beauchene. He seems to save his best for this race, he was runner-up in 2013 and won last year. He was raised 16lb for his win last year, but has now dropped to a mark just 7lb higher than when he was victorious. Any rain that falls will be in his favour and he should run well for trainer Venetia Williams.

Gas Line Boy had the anchors attached to his feet with a 15lb rise for his win over this course and distance back in November with subsequent Welsh National winner Emperor’s Choice in second. He was dropped 5lb after his pulled up effort in the Welsh National, but it may not be enough.

It’s a tough handicap to predict and any overnight rain will change the completion of the race, but I’m going with David Pipe’s Broadway Buffalo.

The race we know as the Rendlesham Hurdle is another highlight. The Betfred “Still Treble Odds on Lucky 15s” Hurdle is a Grade 2 over 3 miles and once again At Fishers Cross is a short price to win.

He’s been incredibly disappointing though having promised so much and is in danger of being labelled a ‘morning glory’. However, he has an inspired McCoy in the plate again as he bids to win his first race since the Sefton Novices’ Hurdle in April 2013.

It seems astonishing that he hasn’t won since then, but this looks his easiest assignment for a very long time. He’s a hard horse to back with any confidence, but is the form horse in this.

Taking him on is Land Of Vic who has a bit to find at the weights for Peter Bowen. Unlike the favourite, this is her toughest task to date.

Last year’s winner Seeyouatmidnight bids to defend his crown on his first run since April but gives weight to all his rivals.

Trainer Sandy Thomson reported the horse to have had a few niggles since his last run, but nothing too serious. He had a superb season last term winning three times under rules, working his way up the ranks. His final start saw him finish 3rd at Aintree in the Grade 1 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle.

This is a fact finding mission for connections ahead of the World Hurdle for which he’s a 40/1 shot, At Fishers Cross is 16/1 for the same race. Seeyouatmidnight is the most likely horse to upset the favourite, but as he is conceding weight to Rebecca Curtis’ enigmatic 8 year-old, I’m giving At Fishers Cross one more chance!

The Bathwick Tyres Kingwell Hurdle is the feature at Wincanton a Grade 2 run over 2 miles.

Fighting Fifth winner Irving is another leading contender for trainer Paul Nicholls. His last visit to this track won’t hold fond memories as he took a heavy fall at the last flight in the Elite Hurdle.

He bounced back at Newcastle, but then pulled up in the Christmas Hurdle behind easy winner Faugheen. There appeared to be an excuse as he returned from the Kempton race lame with an abscess in his foot. If all goes well here he will be back in the frame for the Champion Hurdle for which he’s 33/1.

His performance at Newcastle would make him hard to beat here if he can replicate it. Sign of a Victory is his closest market rival for Nicky Henderson and Andrew Tinkler. He gets 4lb from Irving and that puts him right in there with a strong chance.

He has only had the 9 starts, winning 5 including a competitive Ascot Handicap in November beating stable mate Dawalan. That was impressive and he was allowed to take his chance in the Christmas Hurdle where he ran a creditable race in 4th.

The concern is that he missed last weekend’s Betfair Hurdle due to lameness, but it can’t have been too serious as he runs here. He is the sort of horse that could have much more to offer and I fancy his chances.

It’s dangerous to discount a horse trained by Dan Skelton, he saddles Blue Heron who finished one place in front of the Henderson horse in the Christmas Hurdle.

He’s tough and consistent and will make a race of it. He could be the one to set the pace here as he did at Kempton.

Selections:

Ma Filleule in the Ascot Chase @ 9/2 with Sky Bet

Broadway Buffalo in the Grand National Trial @ 7/1 with Sky Bet

At Fishers Cross in the Betfred “Still Treble Odds on Lucky 15s” Hurdle @ 10/11 with Sky Bet

Sign of a Victory in the Bathwick Tyres Kingwell Hurdle @ 2/1 with Sky Bet