Lydia Hislop: Road To Cheltenham

With the Festival fast approaching, Lydia Hislop unleashes four bets in her penultimate Road To Cheltenham feature.

We’ve reached that juncture in the Road To Cheltenham when prices rise and fall in the various ante-post Festival markets, some inspired by clarification of a horse’s intended target or a genuine growth of confidence in their wellbeing, others as a result of the hot air we all spout at the various preview nights.

As a result, what follows here necessarily focuses more on what has been said rather than done over the past week, but it does also prompt some action in the form of four recommended bets.

Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase

It would have been more appropriate to hear about Sire De Grugy’s corns before he ran disappointingly at Newbury and about his new shoes prior to his revived performance at Chepstow rather than at trainer Gary Moore’s press open day some weeks later.

"He has plastic white shoes on," Moore revealed when parading the horse on Tuesday. "We had them changed yesterday. He got a corn before he went to Newbury and it was touch and go whether I could run him or not. Anyway, he was sound enough two days before the race.

"When he came back we cut a lot of the corn out and since then he has had to run in these half-bar shoes. The corn could well have been bothering him at Newbury. I'd hate to think it was but you wouldn't land or jump a fence comfortably with a stone in your shoe.

“We cut it away quite a lot. It was a big worry going to Chepstow with these new shoes on and he only had them on the day before."

Neither factor was mentioned at the time to explain the horse’s performance on his belated seasonal debut nor when his form improved exponentially just 14 days later.

This is pertinent information both for punters and race fans – and probably goes some way to explain why the horse jumped so poorly at Newbury – so the stewards should have asked and the Moores should have told.

It also emerged that Sire De Grugy is nervous of being shoed and so needs to be anaesthetised to the process, meaning his latest fitting had to take place on Monday to ensure the drug used exits the horse’s system by raceday.

But doesn’t this raise the concern that the horse could be disadvantaged if spreading a plate on the way to post, when no drugs are permitted? Moore said: “If one does come off, that’s covered because the blacksmith will travel to Cheltenham with him.”

Yet, based on the logic of Moore’s own words, that surely doesn’t account for Sire De Grugy’s potential reaction to such an eventuality. Let’s hope it doesn’t happen but punters: beware.

Barry Geraghty reprised the match-fitness argument for Sprinter Sacre when appearing in the Attheraces studio last Friday night.

"He schooled really well Friday morning, he felt great and looks a picture,” he said. “He didn't look as well at Ascot as he does now. That was his first competitive race for 20 months so he was entitled to get a bit tired and his jumping was a little bit rusty.”

He was feeling more bullish three days later in his Attheraces blog, asserting: “He’s as well now as he was going into the race two years ago.” As the stop signs say at Belmont Park racetrack: woah! Even Nicky Henderson admits it’s “probably not realistic” to think the horse is back to his “serious peak”.

He thinks Sprinter Sacre will be “very competitive” and likes the way he has come out of his run at Ascot when, lest we forget, the horse bled.

With concerns undermining the case for each of the top three in this market – drying ground on the sharper Old Course could become a growing concern for Dodging Bullets – I am still inclined to wait before transferring this race from the too-difficult tray in my mind.

Some intriguing sub-plots are developing. It’s no surprise to hear trainer Shark Hanlon has now reverted to the Ryanair with Hidden Cyclone, of which more in that segment. As mentioned last week, this race now bears no resemblance to the weak contest he envisaged pillaging a few months ago.

According to Paul Jones in this week’s Weatherbys service update, the owner of Johns Spirit wants to jump in the opposite direction. Christopher Johnston is fully aware his horse seems much to prefer the Old Course over the New; the Champion Chase is staged on the former and the Ryanair on the latter.

Jones visited Jackdaws Castle and wrote: “I was told that they timed Johns Spirit’s win from the 2m-from-home point in the Paddy Power Gold Cup to the time that Uxizandre took to win the 2m Shloer Chase the following day and they liked what they saw so this switch is under serious consideration.”

Strict conclusions about such a comparison are tempered by: the races being on different days, Uxizandre going from a standing start at that point whereas Johns Spirit would have already been galloping and Uxizandre’s ability being some way below what will be required to win next Wednesday.

However, it does still loosely indicate that Johns Spirit has enough speed for the Champion Chase to be a realistic option. You can still get 33/1 and he would be an interesting outsider.

Ryanair Chase

News emerged on Tuesday that Cue Card misses the Festival for the second year running, after trainer Colin Tizzard uncovered “a small wind problem”.

"He's having the wind op today - a little correction - and everybody says he'll be fine in a week, but he won't be going to Cheltenham,” Tizzard said. "He's started making a little noise in the last few days."

The plan is now to get him back for Aintree and hopefully this information may help to account for why he has run so poorly since returning from a stress fracture to his pelvis. However, I’d want to see evidence of a revival before parting with any cash.

As mentioned above, last year’s runner-up Hidden Cyclone has now switched back to this race, where the strength in depth of the likely opposition has rapidly eroded. The idea must surely have crossed trainer Hanlon’s mind even before Cue Card’s defection.

Hanlon, who schooled Hidden Cyclone at Leopardstown last Saturday, said on Wednesday morning: "We've just made a decision in the last 15 minutes that we'll go for the Ryanair. There's no Dynaste there this year and with Cue Card pulling out this week, we are heading that way.

"Up to now we were heading towards the Champion Chase but with no Cue Card and the ground drying out, it's likely to be good by Thursday, so we're turning that way."

The New Course is already quicker than the Old Course according to Simon Claisse, director of racing and clerk of the course at Cheltenham. Interviewed on Racing UK on Monday, he did not however discount the possibility of watering during the Festival given the long-term forecast suggests a dry week.

It also now seems that Taquin Du Seuil will contest the Ryanair rather than a handicap chase after trainer Jonjo O’Neill managed to avert his gaze from the generous 5lb drop in his rating following a considerately handled fourth behind Coneygree at Newbury.

The horse’s JLT win last year, on helpfully watered ground, puts him bang in the mix for this race and for a yard with few equals in target-training ability.

Trainer Nicky Richards has also U-turned with Eduard and now plans to run him here rather than wait for Aintree. This horse is improving, albeit steadily, and is worth a shot at an open race.

Meanwhile, favourite Don Cossack also schooled at Leopardstown last Saturday after racing, along with trainer Gordon Elliott’s entire Festival team. Elliott said the horse was “looking a million dollars”.

Don Cossack boasts the best current form in the race but must prove he can jump round Cheltenham. He fell at the 14th in the RSA last year, having made one other significant error, but otherwise jumped well. It will also be the New, rather than Old Course that he faces this time.

With Cue Card having joined Dynaste and Al Ferof as the latest significant name to miss this race, might connections of Champagne Fever be revisiting the idea of running him in this race rather than the Champion Chase? It’s a door they haven’t yet definitively shut.

Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup

Djakadam schooled over fences after racing at Leopardstown last Saturday, in increasingly windy conditions that reportedly put off some other trainers.

When I interviewed owner Rich Ricci for Racing UK earlier that same day, he said he still was not sure that Ruby Walsh would ride his horse rather than Boston Bob or On His Own. Ricci feared the former more than the latter.

He also countered my idea of trainer Willie Mullins applying some headgear to the lazy Boston Bob with the very sound point that the trainer does not often use it. Subsequent research confirmed his point.

Since 2005 in Britain and Ireland, Mullins has never used a visor, is 0 for 14 with blinkers, 5 for 48 with cheekpieces (twice on the first application) and 12 for 61 with a hood (four times on the first occasion). I must thank Chris Dixon, my Racing UK colleague, who carried out this research.

But trainer Paul Nicholls is considering switching headgear on Sam Winner for the Gold Cup, reportedly depending on how well he takes to blinkers being reapplied at home. A decision is likely to be made this week.

The horse responded with marked positivity to first-time blinkers when they were applied over hurdles back in 2013. Both trainer and rider, Sam Twiston-Davies, have already advised not to underestimate Sam Winner even as his current form stands.

Nicholls also conceded Silviniaco Conti must prove his stamina for the Gold Cup trip, after faltering late on in last year’s renewal, although he has no such doubts in his own mind.

Ladbrokes World Hurdle

There have been a number of fascinating snippets for this wide-open race in recent days. Nicholls says there isn’t much between Saphir Du Rheu and Zarkandar at home, but therefore leans towards the latter because he keeps a little back for himself. Noel Fehily has committed to riding the latter, so Harry Fry is officially in the market for a replacement on Rock On Ruby.

It seems Briar Hill might yet get to the church on time, despite falling on his latest start, as could stablemate Abbyssial, who also fell when travelling strongly and yet to challenge Kitten Rock last time out. Cole Harden has had a breathing operation.

Last year’s third At Fishers Cross has also felt healing hands on his throat and both knees, presumably the effect of him genuflecting before the shrine of James, son of Zebedee and patron saint of vets. His jumping had required divine intervention.

But his trainer Rebecca Curtis also revealed in her Attheraces stable tour this week that At Fishers Cross will wear first-time blinkers next Thursday. The application of cheekpieces had a positive effect on the horse back in the 2014 Cleeve Hurdle, so this news should be taken as an unalloyed plus.

The horse reserves his best form for Cheltenham, is the best representative of last year’s World Hurdle form and will benefit from a sounder surface than he has encountered all season.

I am almost certain I haven’t taken leave of my senses when I say: he’s vastly overpriced at 40/1 so back him now, each-way with William Hill or Sky Bet. I’m not brave enough to take a horse like him as my sole position in this race, but this is my first (rather unlikely) step.

My second step is to advise Whisper each-way at 14/1 NRNB with various firms. He jumped beautifully when narrowly beating Get Me Out Of Here in last year’s Coral Cup – so narrowly, I still can’t quite believe he did it. He went on to defeat a right-jumping At Fishers Cross in the Liverpool Hurdle on his first attempt at three miles next time out.

There are reasons to believe he wasn’t quite at his best that day, given he jumped poorly and was sweating profusely. His novice-chase ambitions were short-lived this term, but he is unexposed at this trip and will get the services of Geraghty in a race very much up for grabs.

Stan James Champion Hurdle

At his press open day last Thursday, trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies reported The New One to be “100 per cent” and revealed a little about his son, Sam’s, likely riding tactics.

“We won't be allowing Faugheen out of our sights,” he said. “The New One quickens off any pace, but there is no way we want the other horse to go off ten lengths in front.”

The question of race tactics is an intriguing one and best addressed in next Monday’s column, when the final field is known.

In other news, Geraghty is set to ride Vaniteux in this race and hopes for drying ground. Edward O’Grady reportedly will climb the mountain with Kitten Rock, opting for the Champion Hurdle rather than the relative molehill of an Easter Grade Two contest. Purple Bay is a non-runner, however.

Eight horses were confirmed at the five-day stage; Arctic Fire, Bertimont, Faugheen, Hurricane Fly, Jezki, Kitten Rock, The New One and Vaniteux.

OLBG David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdles

The vibes are good for Polly Peachum, with both Henderson and Geraghty having mentioned her in positive terms of late. “She’s going very nicely, actually,” Henderson reportedly stated at his open day. Geraghty mentioned her this week, but stressed that a sound surface is important.

She has course form, having beaten last year’s third L’Unique at Cheltenham the following month, and is capable fresh. Obviously, it’s not ideal that she hasn’t raced since pulling up at Kempton last November but she had previously shaped like an improved performer when winning at Wincanton.

The class disparity of 7lbs between her and Annie Power on official figures is nowhere near as daunting as was the standard set by Quevega for her opponents in many recent renewals.

And just because Quevega could deliver off an absence in this race doesn’t mean that Annie Power must follow. She has had a setback and can be keen; she wears a hood at home. With that in mind, the obvious play is taking the 9/1 NRNB each-way about Polly Peachum with Paddy Power now.

Novice chasers

During last Saturday’s interview, Ricci revealed that the National Hunt Chase is still under consideration for the smart and multiply entered, Vroum Vroum Mag. The question connections are chewing over is whether the trip at the Festival would be too arduous a task for a five-year-old mare.

Her participation would enliven an event that has already lost one of its more likely stars in The Young Master and may yet lose favourite Don Poli, both to the alternative target of the RSA.

Securing Geraghty for The Young Master was the clinching factor in trainer Neil Mulholland’s choice of race. The horse has been kept fresh since winning Ascot’s Silver Cup in December and fifth-placed Sound Investment boosted that form when dropped in trip and winning at Newbury last Saturday.

Mulholland added: “I have no doubt in my mind it has been best to not run him for a while as he has got stronger. I also think he has improved. Ideally I would like to see Coneygree going for the Gold Cup and Don Poli for the four-miler – although I doubt that will happen."

Recent vibes have indeed suggested that Gigginstown have won the debate with Mullins to run Don Poli in the RSA and Valseur Lido in the JLT.

Noel Meade has asserted that Very Wood would also contest the RSA for the same connections, but the NH Chase market suggests otherwise. This might be wishful thinking from Meade, who also has Wounded Warrior for the four-miler.

I strongly advise the precaution of NRNB if you’re taking a position on these Gigginstown horses and I intend to do just that with Valseur Lido. I want to take on Vautour in the JLT and this slick-jumping stablemate is the ideal candidate. Take the 6/1, the best price available under NRNB terms.

Talking of Vautour, he and Un De Sceaux also schooled after racing at Leopardstown, with Mullins declaring himself “very happy” with the former’s jumping. He had not been as pleased as Walsh with how the JLT ante-post favourite negotiated the course on his last actual start.

In other target news, The Tullow Tank is heading for the JLT even though he still looks a nervous jumper of a fence. When I interviewed Richard Johnson for Racing UK last Friday, it seemed to be a given that Sausalito Sunrise – trained by Phillip Hobbs but the mount of Tom O’Brien – would run in the Festival Handicap Chase rather than the RSA.

Following his win at Leopardstown last Saturday, Sizing Granite misses the Arkle in favour of Aintree – a manouevre his trainer, Henry de Bromhead, carried out successfully with Special Tiara in 2013.

In a Grosvenor Casinos preview night on Monday, Nicholls was adamant that Vibrato Valtat would not be embroiled with Un De Sceaux early and therefore paying the price – although the right moment to strike such a classy front-runner is a conundrum for Twiston-Davies, bearing in mind the reviews he got from his trainer when beaten on this horse by Dunraven Storm.

Nicholls also reported Ptit Zig, a faller at Ascot last time, has since undergone intensive schooling and was strong on Southfield Theatre, whom he argued – with good reason – will improve for a sounder surface and a larger field.

Cause Of Causes – a maiden after ten starts but runner-up in last year’s Kim Muir – has been all the rage for the NH Chase since it was confirmed that Jamie Codd would ride him rather than Warwick runner-up Doing Fine, with whom the amateur rider was also briefly linked.

Novice hurdlers

The wish, expressed in this column at the end of January for one of our ante-post bets, has been fulfilled: Twiston-Davies rides Blaklion for his father in the Albert Bartlett.

He replaces talented conditional Ryan Hatch, who rode the horse well when scoring at Cheltenham in December but would again be lining up 5lb wrong at the weights at the Festival by dint of being unable to claim his allowance in a Grade One.

Blaklion has also shown an increasing tendency to run down his hurdles and hang to the left in his last two starts. It is possible that the more senior jockey will be able to counteract this trait more readily.

There were more positive noises about Albert Bartlett contender No More Heroes after he also schooled at Leopardstown last Saturday. He is said to have scoped badly subsequent to finishing fifth behind Outlander there last time out and so his prominent position in the ante-post market for this race is noteworthy.

Trainer Elliott reported work rider Shane McCann was “happy” with the horse and, perhaps significantly, jockey Bryan Cooper cited No More Heroes (along with Don Cossack and Gold Cup mount Road To Riches) as one of the three Festival horses he’s “really looking forward to” in his racingfx.co.uk blog.

Martello Tower, second to Outlander in that same race, has been bigged-up on the Preview circuit by owner Barry Connell. The horse will certainly relish the step back up to three miles.

In other news for the same race, Henderson has reportedly performed a well-practised U-turn with Out Sam, whom it turns out is experienced enough to tackle Cheltenham rather than wait for Aintree. He joins stable companions Caracci Apache and Vyta Du Roc in the Festival’s three-mile novice event.

Shantou Bob is also heading here, having reportedly had a wind operation since his disappointing run at Warwick in January, as is Foryourinformation. Carl Hinchy, owner of the latter, also fields Beast Of Burden in the Neptune.

Mullins is now saying – or has always said, depending on whom you listen to – that not having a prep run in 2015 prior to the Albert Bartlett was always the plan with Black Hercules. “I didn’t want to give him a hard race,” he said to Racing UK. “We were trying to keep the tiger in the tank for Cheltenham.”

In an interview with the Northern Echo, owner Graham Wylie was also notably confident about Black Hercules’s chances – albeit he was off-message on the subject of his trainer’s campaign plans.

"He's a monster, and I'm sure he'll stay no problem," Wylie said. "He's been in great form, although it's a bit of a shame that we haven't been able to get him out since December. There haven't been that many three-mile races to put him in and that's what he needs.”

Wylie said that Mullins is “adamant” the Supreme is the right target for Shaneshill, who looks set for the race after working well at the Curragh on Tuesday. Paul Townend takes the ride. Walsh has also instilled him with confidence about the stamina of Nichols Canyon for the Neptune.

You had to brake sharply when Mullins started talking about the same horse in his Racing UK interview with Donn McClean. Without slapping his hand on the dashboard, he merely said Nichols Canyon’s latest success reminded him of Hurricane Fly.

“He’s got the same kind of build and the same aggressiveness as him,” he added, enthusiastically. I’m still going to oppose him…

Juvenile hurdlers

Little to report here, except that Jones passed on at a Preview night this week that Wayne Hutchinson is said to be sweet on Pain Au Chocolat for the Triumph at the potential expense of Karezak.

Mullins told Racing UK that Kalkir “has not diminished in my eyes” despite his defeat by stablemate, Petitie Parisienne, last time. “To me all season Kalkir has been the one. But there’s not a lot between them, which means Nicky Henderson will probably win it with something else,” he joked. Mullins also has Dicosimo for the race.

It has been confirmed that John Ferguson runs Devilment in the Triumph and has booked Twiston-Davies for the task. Stablemate Arabian Revolution is his Fred Winter representative.

Mick Jazz will not contest that juvenile handicap, or indeed any other race this season, according to his trainer, Harry Fry.

Ante-post betting portfolio to date:

Douvan: Supreme Novices’ Hurdle – already advised at 12/1

Saphir Du Rheu: JLT Novices’ Chase – already advised at 14/1 [non runner]

Jezki: Stan James Champion Hurdle – already advised each-way at 6/1

Boston Bob: Gold Cup – already advised, each way at 20/1

Blaklion: Albert Bartlett – already advised at 10/1

L’Ami Serge: Supreme – already advised at 12/1

Djakadam: Gold Cup – already advised at 16/1 NRNB

Petite Parisienne: Triumph – already advised each-way at 10/1

Zarib: Fred Winter – already advised at 12/1

Polly Peachum – Mares Hurdle – back now at 9/1 each-way NRNB with various firms including Sky Bet

Valseur Lido: JLT Novices’ Chase – back now at 6/1 NRNB with various firms including Sky Bet

At Fishers Cross: World Hurdle – back now at 40/1 each-way NRNB with various firms including Sky Bet

Whisper: World Hurdle – back now at 14/1 NRNB with various firms including Sky Bet