Lydia Hislop previews the 2013 Investec Derby
Lydia Hislop looks at the pressure points in the 2013 Investec Derby and sides with Ocovango to come out on top
If Dawn Approach is to win Saturday's Investec Derby, he must pass the ultimate test of the racehorse. No need to stop me: you have heard that one before. Yet the point still carries. It's highly unlikely that the 2,000 Guineas winner can steal a second classic by dint alone of his unquestionable ability. He'll have to earn victory, in every aspect this test entails.
Epsom examines the racehorse to a greater degree than any other. Perhaps the only other course at which spectators, enjoying a holiday atmosphere amid fairground noise, are positioned so intimately alongside the participants is Cartmel. Epsom's topography is also wilier than the tricks of Goodwood, Newmarket and Lingfield combined.
And yet by comparison, the result of the Derby is immeasurably consequential. What these relatively inexperienced colts achieve in this race greatly decides whether their future lies in the choicest breeding sheds or..., er, at Cartmel.
What follows are the pressure points Dawn Approach must pass if he is to emulate modern heroes Nijinsky, Nashwan, Sea The Stars and Camelot by adding the Derby to his Guineas success. The Epsom classic is won and lost in different ways every year. In 2013, for Dawn Approach's key rivals, the focus will be Tattenham Corner; for him, it will be the straight.
Parade ring
Before the Derby, the runners walk from the tranquility of the stables towards the cacophony of the racecourse enclosures, passing the Rubbing House pub on their right before bearing left behind the Queen's Stand and entering the parade ring. They're tacked up there, either in the humid saddling boxes or, if trained by Aidan O'Brien, out in the open of the paddock. All the while, racing fans jostle noisily mere feet away for a good view.
Some horses lose their chance here by becoming agitated or misbehaving. Mars might be one to watch at this stage, only because he is one of the most inexperienced horses in the field - this is just his third start - and he displayed his greenness (admittedly prior to running well) at Newmarket last time. As a son of Montjeu, Festive Cheer might be another.
By contrast, Libertarian successfully coped with the enervating walk through the crowds across the Knavesmire prior to winning the Dante at York, suggesting he is mentally well-equipped for Epsom despite only starting his racing career in April.
Parade & canter to post
Dawn Approach's dad, New Approach, found this bit tough. With characteristic prescience, trainer Jim Bolger had long used a system to calm him. An equine nanny, Metamorphosis, always accompanied New Approach to and from the races, even shepherding him down to the start. Epsom tested those precautions to the limit.
Prior to British Group One races, the runners must parade in front of the stands. Trainers can apply in advance to put a high-mettled horse out of numerical order, at the rear. There's a fine if you break the parade. Some do, calculating that the prize is worth many times the penalty, but that's ultimately self-defeating if mental soundness is to be perpetuated in the breed.
In 2008, New Approach was paraded in last, at one point smothered against the rail by Metamorphosis and isolated from the others. He was then ushered to post steadily, through the tunnel of noise on both sides of the straight. Unlike father, son Dawn Approach is unlikely to need these devices. He was positively sleepy prior to the Guineas.
Draw & early stages
Epsom's draw is most pivotal in handicaps over the Derby trip of a mile and a half because, where weight is allotted to equalise ability, any element that tilts the scales in the disfavour of one horse can be crucial. However, in fields of 12 or more, stalls 1 and 2 can't be described as an advantage even in the Derby. Stall 2 arguably contributed to the woes of The Fugue in last year's Oaks.
The reason is that the stalls open onto the exertion of an ascent, complicated by the track bearing at first to the right and then back to the left. Jockeys must decide whether to use up energy here to bag a prominent position or to bide their time towards the rear of the field, hoping traffic problems don't prevent them from making ground later when they need to.
This year, Ocovango (stall 1 of 12) and Festive Cheer (2) have the short straws. That's a tough tactical ask for Pierre-Charles Boudot, Ocovango's jockey, whose only experience of Epsom will have been a sedate gallop ten days earlier and the part-information of the six-furlong Woodcote Stakes two hours previously.
Tattenham Corner
The track rises about 150 feet on uneven and undulating terrain before sweeping sharply downhill round a tight left-handed bend called Tattenham Corner. This is where those horses hanging on grimly, amid the rolls and sways of Epsom, get found out. They start stumbling and tumbling, hanging out to their right and losing their position - and with it, their chance.
It's usually important to occupy a position in the front half of the field at this point. There are exceptions - the 2011 winner Pour Moi, for example, came from last at the top of the straight to first, celebrating, at the line.
Tattenham Corner might be the downfall of Ruler Of The World (although he does have the help of Ryan Moore), Libertarian and Galileo Rock - all of whom got outpaced in their latest races. Agile and nippy types, like Ocovango and Mirsaale, are favoured. However, judging by his handling of Newmarket's Dip in the Guineas, it holds no fears for Dawn Approach.
The straight
The straight continues to drop 50 feet until the ground rises again for a stamina-sapping final furlong. The inside of the track is lower than the stands side, causing tired horses to totter left towards the rail, their exertions and the receding ground robbing them of their balance. Mars, Chopin and arguably Battle Of Marengo are prime candidates for the wobble.
It's also where Dawn Approach, surely still in with a winning shout at the two-furlong pole, potentially reaches the upper limits of his stamina - and beyond. It's been said that he's so good he won't have to stay, but that's tosh. Epsom's mile and a half is the stiffest in Britain; stiffer even than the Curragh, still often incorrectly said to be the greater stamina test.
Truth is, given you can be confident he'll stay at least ten furlongs, Dawn Approach is the most likely winner of the Derby but, unless you've snaffled clever ante-post prices, his current odds make no appeal. If trainer Andre Fabre can trust Boudot to attain a prominent position early on Ocovango and to stretch those who chase him in the straight, so can I.
Selection:
1 - Ocovango
2 - Dawn Approach
3 - Mirsaale
